November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

Se Nebraska through nw Iowa and the twin cities get smacked on the gfs and the icon is still a Dakota special. More north trends to come in the next few days.

[centralweather44]

Don’t know why but I have a feeling this thing continues to focus and trend north. Turning into a Western Nebraska and Dakota special. Time will tell I guess

[Tom]

I went ahead and started a storm thread for the the post Thanksgiving winter storm potential....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1892-1124-1127-winter-storm-potential/

[Tom]

What a way to finish off this memorable month of November with a potential high impact storm system.  If you miss the snows with the early week system next week, need not to worry, the pattern setting up to open December is loaded with storms as the LRC has plenty of action in store.  My goodness, we may be building a glacier here very soon.  I'm absolutely stoked for this season and tracking winter storms.  Happy Tuesday!

 

I just had the chance to look at the Euro weeklies and they are filled with a winter lovers dream...persistent Hudson Bay/Greenland blocking, cold and an active storm track right through our sub.  By Christmas week, the pattern shifts more towards a -EPO/NW NAMER/AK Ridge and the Polar Vortex will likely re-surface to close out the month and open January.  This is when I think some real vicious arctic air follows.  Giddy up and gear up for the continuation of a memorable winter baby!

[westMJim]

I have a cold spot in my far back yard where the temperature is colder then the rest of my yard. I now have a temperature sensor in that part of the yard. Last night the low in that part of my yard fell to 20.1° for the coldest reading for that sensor this fall so far. The low on my other sensor was 22.3° it looks like my yard was colder then the airport last night. There was a trace of snow fall here last nigh and there is a trace on the ground. The current temperature here is 27.0° (25.7° in the cold spot. Most time when I report the temperature I use the one in the higher part of my yard (that area is generally warmer then the far back yard) BTW I have swapped sensors to see if that is the reason for the cold spot and it is not. Also it looks like the low at GRR was 24°

[Grizzcoat]

 

I have a cold spot in my far back yard where the temperature is colder then the rest of my yard. I now have a temperature sensor in that part of the yard. Last night the low in that part of my yard fell to 20.1° for the coldest reading for that sensor this fall so far. The low on my other sensor was 22.3° it looks like my yard was colder then the airport last night. There was a trace of snow fall here last nigh and there is a trace on the ground. The current temperature here is 27.0° (25.7° in the cold spot. Most time when I report the temperature I use the one in the higher part of my yard (that area is generally warmer then the far back yard) BTW I have swapped sensors to see if that is the reason for the cold spot and it is not. Also it looks like the low at GRR was 24°

 

Good info. I have experienced the same thing on a professional level. -- Know this; that anything above a  temp sensor that constricts air flow, or blocks heat loss from the top of the  sensor-  (deck , large tree branches etc.) will reduce radiational cooling much like ( much smaller extant) clouds do. You should see the opposite effect during the daytime. The measurement of the 2 meter temp is highly variable when one really gets into the brass tacks of the matter-- even with radiational "heat" shields. Some ALL TIME record low temps where thrown out in Illinois recently (arguably ) for the reasons above , which - heat transfer wise- make no sense. Oddly- NOAA usually accepts record warm temps with the same sensors, all being =, they would throw out in extreme cold. Again- makes no sense on a energy aspect, but I don't work for NOAA or pretend to but have made a professional living the weather field for 20+ years. 

[Niko]

Winter wonderland out there. Picked up 1.5" of snow last night. Currently, blowing snow (looks like a blizzard at times) and temps in the 20s. Some sun trying to peek through. Wcf in the teens. BRRRR!

[westMJim]

Good info. I have experienced the same thing on a professional level. -- Know this; that anything above a  temp sensor that constricts air flow, or blocks heat loss from the top of the  sensor-  (deck , large tree branches etc.) will reduce radiational cooling much like ( much smaller extant) clouds do. You should see the opposite effect during the daytime. The measurement of the 2 meter temp is highly variable when one really gets into the brass tacks of the matter-- even with radiational "heat" shields. Some ALL TIME record low temps where thrown out in Illinois recently (arguably ) for the reasons above , which - heat transfer wise- make no sense. Oddly- NOAA usually accepts record warm temps with the same sensors, all being =, they would throw out in extreme cold. Again- makes no sense on a energy aspect, but I don't work for NOAA or pretend to but have made a professional living the weather field for 20+ years. 

I did not mention it. But yes that area indeed on many days has a warmer reading. And yes I have the sensor well shielded from the sun

[Tom]

If this stat doesn't give you the chillzzzz, not sure what will...esp the time of year!

 

 

 

 

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Just heard from our Brimson, MN observer, -19F for an overnight low!

[Tom]

The ensembles are starting to sniff out another system (29th-30th) right on the heels of the potential big one early next week.  This particular one is part of the pattern I outlined in my winter outlook that has the looks of a PAC Hybrid-Clipper system that drops down the leeward side of the Rockies and develops in the Plains/MW region.  If you miss out on this system, there is yet another one that is brewing on my calendar that should dig deep into the 4 corners/TX Panhandle and become a cutter to open up December.  My, oh my, this pattern is jacked!

[jaster220]

Winter wonderland out there. Picked up 1.5" of snow last night. Currently, blowing snow (looks like a blizzard at times) and temps in the 20s. Some sun trying to peek through. Wcf in the teens. BRRRR!

 

Congrats! Was in Wisco on biz the past two days where we only had some flurries last evening. Coming home tho, there were some places that clearly got plow worthy amounts off of Lake Michigan. According to the airport, Marshall had snow falling for about 6 hrs but the sun must've melted a lot of what fell. GRR has reports but not for my area and no map, so I'm left wondering how much fell?

[Niko]

Congrats! Was in Wisco on biz the past two days where we only had some flurries last evening. Coming home tho, there were some places that clearly got plow worthy amounts off of Lake Michigan. According to the airport, Marshall had snow falling for about 6 hrs but the sun must've melted a lot of what fell. GRR has reports but not for my area and no map, so I'm left wondering how much fell?

Thanks Buddy. So far for the month, holding at 5.6". Not too shabby for November.

[Niko]

Currently at 30F w partly cloudy skies and wcf in the teens.

[jaster220]

Per APX. This Turkey Day forecast sounds like mine circa 1995, tho we'd already had 3 storms and one was an actual blizzard on 10-11th.  That Nov. Gaylord had 63" while TC airport down in town had 40". My place on high ground and in the forest was easily in the 50+ inches. Talk about a great start to an awesome winter!

 

 

Thanksgiving is looking mainly dry but cold across northern Michigan. Temperatures are expected to be in the single digits for most areas early Thursday morning with subzero wind chills.

[possum]

can any of you folks kinda give an idea of what i can look for in extreme north west Tennessee for december?  it seems this area is a bit of a challenge.

[Niko]

Early December looks interesting weatherwise here in SEMI. 

[jaster220]

What's with TX map??

[Niko]

Crisp, cold, clear evening out there w temps at 25F.

[jaster220]

Crisp, cold, clear evening out there w temps at 25F.

 

Not as cold here, but the winds have kicked-up tanite to the point I hear the now leafless trees being blown around. Nasty WC's before Turkey Day? In Marshall? Does not bode well for true winter

[Niko]

Not as cold here, but the winds have kicked-up tanite to the point I hear the now leafless trees being blown around. Nasty WC's before Turkey Day? In Marshall? Does not bode well for true winter

[jaster220]

 

Going to be brutal me thinks, and not just a day or two either. We may feel like SMI's been tele-ported to N Canada

[Niko]

Going to be brutal me thinks, and not just a day or two either. We may feel like SMI's been tele-ported to N Canada

 

Edit: cant believe how snowy this month has been.

[Hoosier]

Going to be brutal me thinks, and not just a day or two either. We may feel like SMI's been tele-ported to N Canada

Hopefully there's a day like 1/6/2014. One of the coldest days I have ever felt. The daytime high barely struggled to -10 (minus 10, not a typo) but there was a cheap midnight high that ruined the way it looks in the books. After the big snow the day before, it truly looked and felt like some far northern climate and not Indiana.

[Niko]

Looks like a very cold Thanksgiving coming up for many. My highs are projected to be in the 20s and lows in the teens.

[Tom]

can any of you folks kinda give an idea of what i can look for in extreme north west Tennessee for december?  it seems this area is a bit of a challenge.

IMO, the first half of December will feature storm induced warmth and volatile temps.  You'll prob get more rain and/or mix situations during the 1st half but right before Christmas look out for the cold to dominate and provide a better storm track for your region.  You might get lucky with a storm cutting just right during the 1st couple weeks but I think 2nd half of December it looks a lot better for you.  I got you in the back of my mind Possum.  I'll try not to forget about you and post info that pertains to your region. 

[Tom]

I'm digging the pattern evolution into the early part of December as the storm train across our sub is not backing down.  In fact, last nights 00z EPS continues the upward trend with a snowy pattern across the Plains/MW/GL's with plenty of opportunities.  Basically, it's showing a system every 2-3 days over the next 2 weeks with a really interesting large scale system during the Dec 1st-3rd time frame.  Hopefully, everyone on here can get a taste of the white gold as we kick start the holiday season.

[westMJim]

The last time it reached 60 or better here at Grand Rapids was way back on October 14^th and so far the highest it has gotten this November here is just 52° The earliest last 60° day here on record is October 13^th and that has happened twice in 1925 and 1969. There have only been 9 Novembers where it has not reached at least 60° this year is well on its way to being number 10 and the current lowest maximum temperature for any November is 53° set in 1907 and we are very much in play for that record. The current mean for November at Grand Rapids is 35.9° that is a departure of -6.2° the record for the coldest November here in Grand Rapids is 31.0° that record looks to be safe at this time in the 2^nd spot is 1976 with 31.4° in 3^rd place is 1995 with 32.0° there are many years between 35.9° and that 32 in 1995.

[Niko]

Its cloudy w temps in the 30s (32F). Bitterly cold tanite as lows bottom out between 10-15F.

[Niko]

A few flurries currently flying around, but nothing of significance. Much colder air coming, followed by milder weather w rain in the forecast.

[Niko]

Hopefully there's a day like 1/6/2014. One of the coldest days I have ever felt. The daytime high barely struggled to -10 (minus 10, not a typo) but there was a cheap midnight high that ruined the way it looks in the books. After the big snow the day before, it truly looked and felt like some far northern climate and not Indiana.

Same here. My low temp was -18F. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRR! and 2 ft of snow otg tbh.

[james1976]

Active pattern. Even after this weekend there's an event to watch 28th-29th and a larger system to open December.

[possum]

IMO, the first half of December will feature storm induced warmth and volatile temps.  You'll prob get more rain and/or mix situations during the 1st half but right before Christmas look out for the cold to dominate and provide a better storm track for your region.  You might get lucky with a storm cutting just right during the 1st couple weeks but I think 2nd half of December it looks a lot better for you.  I got you in the back of my mind Possum.  I'll try not to forget about you and post info that pertains to your region. 

MUCH appreciated.  to be honest, im mostly concerned with cold over snow.  LOVE days where the highs are mid 30's or lower.  preferably much lower.  snow here is a bonus.  snow just north of me is what i need. (ducks and geese)

[Tom]

Another chilly stat for what has been a real cold mid/late Autumn around these parts...

 

 

 

The period from October 11-November 20, 2018 was the 2nd coldest such stretch in Chicago weather history. The avg. temp. for that period was 40.9 degrees. Only in 1976, with an avg. temp. of 40.2 degrees, was colder. @NWSChicago @billyweather

[Niko]

MUCH appreciated.  to be honest, im mostly concerned with cold over snow.  LOVE days where the highs are mid 30's or lower.  preferably much lower.  snow here is a bonus.  snow just north of me is what i need. (ducks and geese)

What is yr location

[Niko]

Currently at a cold 23F w clear skies. Temps will really fall tanite somewhere between 8-13F. BRRRRR

[possum]

What is yr location

EXTREME NW Tennessee.  any more north, im in Ky.  any more west and im in Mo.

[Niko]

My temps are dropping like a rock. Already down to 21F w clear skies.

[Niko]

@ Jaster

 

Are ya temps heading for record low territory this evening. My area will get very close.

[Niko]

Sunset over this great city seemed awkward as wildfire smoke was in the air, all the way from California........nearly 3000 miles away. NYC residents were not seeing the usual sunset.

[Niko]

Looks like this Arctic air will cover all of the GL's region points east towards the EC. Anyplace west from the GL's region will not be affected by this really cold, arctic airmass.

 

Currently at 20F and dropping.