November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Hopefully there's a day like 1/6/2014. One of the coldest days I have ever felt. The daytime high barely struggled to -10 (minus 10, not a typo) but there was a cheap midnight high that ruined the way it looks in the books. After the big snow the day before, it truly looked and felt like some far northern climate and not Indiana.

 

Yeah, that was brutal, and I lived in NMI for 7 winters during some record cold in the mid-90's. I'd gotten soft after 17 yrs south. Clearing my drive in -41F WC. Would not have expected that down here.

 

Same here. My low temp was -18F. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRR! and 2 ft of snow otg tbh.

 

I believe we had -16F that evening, along with the strong winds and crazy low WC's

[james1976]

DJ on radio this morning said this is the 3rd coldest November so far for Iowa.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster

 

Are ya temps heading for record low territory this evening. My area will get very close.

 

Only expecting 16F here. Had 15F one morning in Jackson last week so I doubt we're in record territory. SEMI's been colder than SWMI it seems like every season post 13-14

[Niko]

Only expecting 16F here. Had 15F one morning in Jackson last week so I doubt we're in record territory. SEMI's been colder than SWMI it seems like every season post 13-14

I have noticed that too. Very strange pattern.

[Niko]

Clear w temps at 17F.

[jaster220]

You are 10F colder than Marshall attm. That's nuts!

[jaster220]

Battle Creek already has secured 7th snowiest November on record there (late 1800's). If this impending system plays out favorably, they'll be knocking on 1st place and all the top 3 snowiest Novembers will be in the 21st century! Extra strange because mostly it's been a non-winter month weather-wise sans a few events like in '04

 

Another tid-bit from the SMI forum. Detroit proper has had 7 measurable snowfalls thru 11/20. Only Nov's of 1950 and 1880 have been so "snowy" in their entire record (1875 iirc). That's some rare-air. Wiki states that winter 1880-81 is considered to be America's overall harshest winter of record. Could we be challenging that this winter? That one actually had a lot of N Plains blizzards, so this may focus on a different region for the worst.

[Niko]

This can easily be a Winter of extremes. The right teleconnections are coming together.

[jaster220]

JB had a humorous vid today. Said they should really consider cancelling the NYC parade. Might well see 40 mph gusts thru the tall buildings and Bullwinkle could end up blown south out to sea

[Tom]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I'm grateful for many things in my life and thankful for all the blessings that have been transpiring.  Hope everyone can enjoy a delicious feast with family and friends today. Thankfully, the wx is cooperating today for many of us, but those traveling back on Sunday may need to make plans ahead of time.

 

 

 

[Tom]

If you thought this month has been a busy one, December will be nearly a carbon copy and looks to kick off the month with another potentially bigger, large scale system. Before we get into that storm potential, today's JMA weeklies are illustrating plenty of action across the board and winters onslaught to continue.

 

Week 2 Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201811.D2112_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201811.D2112_gl0.png

 

Weeks 3 - 4...IMO, not cold enough but the model is "seeing" the amplified NW NAMER pattern which was an exhibit of this year's LRC and will be cycling through during this period.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201811.D2112_gl2.png

 

 

On a side note, one of the big reasons why this winter may just end up with wall-to-wall cold are clearly shaping up in the NE PAC. Nearly ideal placement of the warm/cold pools and the trends heading into the DJF months are just perfect. A historic season is coming, although, you can argue it already has begun...its game time!

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201811.D2112_gls.png

[westMJim]

Cloudy and 21.2° here at my house. The clouds hung on all night and the low here was 20.1° 

[Niko]

Temps dropped to 14F last night and now at 21F w mostly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

PER NOAA:

A second, more potent low pressure system will impact the region
Sunday into Monday, with long range guidance coming into better
agreement with a near 990 hPa low tracking northeast over lower
Michigan as the system begins to occlude. Still uncertainty with the
details of the synoptic evolution, which coupled with diurnal timing
considerations still make it messy in terms of rain vs. snow.
Additional northern stream energy diving southeast from well north
in Canada will reinforce deep troughing over the region through
early next week with a return to colder conditions and lake effect
potential.

 

Models still cant figure this out.

[Niko]

JB had a humorous vid today. Said they should really consider cancelling the NYC parade. Might well see 40 mph gusts thru the tall buildings and Bullwinkle could end up blown south out to sea

The major factor will be the WCF. Temps there today remaining for highs in the mid to upper 20s w strong winds creating a wcf somewhere in the upper S.D's and lower teens. Thats brutal to be standing outside. They betta be bundled up!!!!

[Thunder98]

Sibera is going to be extremely cold for the next couple of weeks!

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1065607504141447168

 

https:/twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1065607504141447168

[westMJim]

The mean temperature for November at Grand Rapids is now at 35.6° that is good for a departure of -6.3° the fun stat for this month is that so far the highest maximum has been only 52° and if this holds that will be the coldest maximum for any November in Grand Rapids recorded history. The current coldest maximum is 53 set in 1907. So far this month the airport has reported 9.0” of snow fall. This has been a very cold November all across the state. The current departures are -6.7° at Muskegon. Their high for the month of 51 would be the coldest on record. Snow fall there is 6.7: At Lansing the they are -6.9° and their maximum of 52 is good for 2^nd place. Their snow fall is 5.2” At Detroit, Flint, Saginaw it is the same story with the maximum either being the coldest or in the case of Detroit in 9 place (the records go back longer in Detroit and they reached 58° so far this month) Snow fall Saginaw 8.0” Flint 6.7” and Detroit 6.0” 

Up north it also is the same story, At Alpena the mean is 30.2° and that is good for a departure of -6.8° there warmest so far is 52 and that would be good for 3 place. Their snow fall is 6.8" at Gaylord the mean so far is 28.4° (-6.5°) the highest so far this month is just 48° and if that holds it would be good for 1st place.Snow fall at Gaylord is now at 17.9"  At Traverse City the mean is 31.0° the high for the month is 54 but that is down the list but good for a top 10. They have only had 5.0" of snow fall. At the Sault the mean is 29.6° the warmest so far is 48 but that is way down the list at 12 place. They have reported 25.2" of snow. At Marquette the mean is a cold 23.5° (-8.9°) the warmest so far this month is 44 and that would be good for 2nd place if it holds. There has been 34.5" of snow there. At Munising the mean is 29.8 (-6.1) their snow fall is 26.9" so far. So this has been a cold November I will do a recap after the month is over.

[westMJim]

There is a good amount of snow cover in northern Michigan as of yesterday here are some snow depths around the state.

 15" Herman and Kearsarge , 13" Painesdale, 12" Newberry, 11" Hancock, Munising, 10" Marquette, Ironwood, Harvey, Wetmore, Michigamme and Champion, 9" Manistique, 7" Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Watton, Green Gardens, 6" Harbor Springs, Detour Village, Lewiston, Watersmeet, Garden Corners, Paulding, 5" E. Jordan, Gaylord, Moran, Vanderbilt, Stambaugh, Ontonagon and Amasa, 4":Alpena, Rogers City, Engadine, Fife Lake and Arnold, 3" Maple City, Benzonia, Kinsbury, Grayling, Luzerne, Rapid River and Parent Bay, 2" Houghton Lake, Gladwin, Glennie, Lake City, Mio, Standish, Gladstone and Stonington, 1" Escanaba, Beulah, Traverse City and Big Rapids. With that snow cover several locations got down below zero. Here are some overnight lows Drummond Island -4° Gaylord -7, Sault Ste. Marie and Grayling -8° and Pellston -15°

[jaster220]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I'm grateful for many things in my life and thankful for all the blessings that have been transpiring.  Hope everyone can enjoy a delicious feast with family and friends today. Thankfully, the wx is cooperating today for many of us, but those traveling back on Sunday may need to make plans ahead of time.

 

 

 

 

Thanks Tom and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your's as well. Don't over do it with the Turkey or you might snooze thru some model updates   We can't be doing that THIS year, can we?

[jaster220]

There is a good amount of snow cover in northern Michigan as of yesterday here are some snow depths around the state.

 15" Herman and Kearsarge , 13" Painesdale, 12" Newberry, 11" Hancock, Munising, 10" Marquette, Ironwood, Harvey, Wetmore, Michigamme and Champion, 9" Manistique, 7" Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Watton, Green Gardens, 6" Harbor Springs, Detour Village, Lewiston, Watersmeet, Garden Corners, Paulding, 5" E. Jordan, Gaylord, Moran, Vanderbilt, Stambaugh, Ontonagon and Amasa, 4":Alpena, Rogers City, Engadine, Fife Lake and Arnold, 3" Maple City, Benzonia, Kinsbury, Grayling, Luzerne, Rapid River and Parent Bay, 2" Houghton Lake, Gladwin, Glennie, Lake City, Mio, Standish, Gladstone and Stonington, 1" Escanaba, Beulah, Traverse City and Big Rapids. With that snow cover several locations got down below zero. Here are some overnight lows Drummond Island -4° Gaylord -7, Sault Ste. Marie and Grayling -8° and Pellston -15°

 

Nice wintery Thanksgiving for the Northland. But by comparison for NMI (not UP) Gaylord would have to get 45+ inches by next Friday just to tie the incredibly cold and snowy Nov of 1995. The earliest winter of my life. Do you think they have a shot? LES conditions will be prime next week but that'd be quite the trick to pull off. Let's see where they end up and how close they can get. Exciting times for us in the GL's

[Tom]

Thanks Tom and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your's as well. Don't over do it with the Turkey or you might snooze thru some model updates   We can't be doing that THIS year, can we?

Love it!  Thanks my amigo from the "Mitt"...I can't wait for dinner later this afternoon at my brother in laws parents house who have a big Amish Turkey.  You betcha I'm going to enjoy this big feast no doubt...hope you do to!

[CentralNebWeather]

The FV3 GFS 12z extended snowfall map is unbelievable. Several feet from Nebraska northeast. Nice eye candy for sure. Those numbers obviously wouldn’t verify, but like the pattern and trends.

[Tom]

Who's ready for Storm # 2???  Just 2-3 days later, another system dives down the leeward side of the Rockies and produces another Plains/MW/Lower Lakes snowstorm.  Both JMA/EURO are seeing it...

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Saw this Tom. Could be a biggie. What a winter we are preparing for. Look at FV3 GFS 12z. Whoa.

[Minny_Weather]

Who's ready for Storm # 2??? Just 2-3 days later, another system dives down the leeward side of the Rockies and produces another Plains/MW/Lower Lakes snowstorm. Both JMA/EURO are seeing it...

 

 

 

Would it really be that far South on the heels of another storm? I feel like that's gonna correct itself over the next few days.

[Niko]

Man, that was delicious food today.....

 

Currently at a cold 22F w mostly cloudy skies.

[Tom]

Would it really be that far South on the heels of another storm? I feel like that's gonna correct itself over the next few days.

It could realistically take a similar track and follow along the new snowpack which often happens. I did notice the AO/NAO both peak in the negative territory during this timeframe which will play a role and the all important, Hudson Bay Ridge. This, by far, plays a key role in keeping storms from cutting NE to quickly.

[Niko]

Another cold evening w temps already in the upper teens.

[OKwx2k4]

I posted in the winter thread but today I am thankful for each of you. You all enrich my life.

 

Happy Thanksgiving!!

[Hawkeye]

Today was the first above avg day this month in Cedar Rapids.  We're still trying to melt off the last of the 2.7" of snow that fell last Saturday morning.  It's not easy to keep a small amount on the ground for a week in November.

[Tom]

Today was the first above avg day this month in Cedar Rapids. We're still trying to melt off the last of the 2.7" of snow that fell last Saturday morning. It's not easy to keep a small amount on the ground for a week in November.

That’s impressive...over here, I can still see some spotty patches here and there in shaded areas.

[Niko]

Temps here are rising. Near 28F currently.

[Niko]

My forecast looks crazy down the road.....very stormy.

[jaster220]

Another cold evening w temps already in the upper teens.

 

Temps may be rising but whoa! at how stout this cold was today. Drove up to Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and car thermo went from 28F here in Marshall kept dropping to 24F there and stayed like that even with the winds shifting around from the N to the SE. That's the motherlode of cold up there across E Canada and it's just lurking up there ready to get involved with any system that wants to pull it down. U got gas in that silly machine of yours yet?? I may regret not having fetched mine from my sister's place by the way some are posting in here, lol

[jaster220]

That’s impressive...over here, I can still see some spotty patches here and there in shaded areas.

 

I'm 99% certain I still have some of my original Nov 9th snow at the bottom of the covering on my deck. Does it survive the next couple of days tho?? We'll see..

[westMJim]

With clear skies the current temperature here is 28° Yesterdays high of 28° at GRR was the coldest high since February 12th when the high was 27°

[Tom]

Surprisingly, there was heavy frost this morning when I went out to a few stores and pick up some Black Friday deals on Christmas lights/decor.  Today and tomorrow are well-timed days to get out and put up Christmas decorations and lighting before nature lays down some snow.  Hopefully our area will cash in, at least be enough to cover up the grass and lighten up the landscape.  Today's suite of runs should provide a good idea if the shifts in the models stay put or not.

[Niko]

Temps may be rising but whoa! at how stout this cold was today. Drove up to Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and car thermo went from 28F here in Marshall kept dropping to 24F there and stayed like that even with the winds shifting around from the N to the SE. That's the motherlode of cold up there across E Canada and it's just lurking up there ready to get involved with any system that wants to pull it down. U got gas in that silly machine of yours yet?? I may regret not having fetched mine from my sister's place by the way some are posting in here, lol

Tbh, I haven't even uncovered my snowblower yet, let alone gas it up. You are right though, I betta start preparing it.

[Niko]

Detroit could be heading for an all time snowiest November on record. DTW is already at 6.0" for the month. If we get 5.8" more from the Sun-Mon system, then, we would break the all time November record snowfall eva, which is 11.8". Unbelievable how snowy this month has been so far and could end up being.

[Niko]

Currently at 29F w sunny, beautiful skies.