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November 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Tom

Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:34 AM

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This is big, while the Arctic has been a bit warm since October, temps are falling off a cliff and setting the stage for North America to fill up with major sub zero cold across Canada...just in time, when the overall flow becomes amplified.  Yet another example of nature aligning things just right.  I'm telling ya, this season just seems to be heading in the right direction each and every way you look at it.

 

 

meanT_2018.png


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#102
Niko

Posted 31 October 2018 - 05:40 AM

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#FOUND

 

1st fantasy winter storm for mby

:o



#103
Niko

Posted 31 October 2018 - 05:43 AM

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What we do have here in The Mitt is a very positive connection during good winters between a strong storm (doesn't have to be a snow maker tbh) in November and another strong storm the following January/February.

 

Here's a list of years when when this came true:

Nov '66 & Jan '67

Nov '89 & Jan '90

Nov '98 & Jan '99

Nov '13 & Jan '14

Nov '15 & Feb '16

 

These two featured major LES events in November followed by Big Dogs

Nov '77 & Jan '78

Nov '14 & Feb 1st '15

 

Interestingly, Nov of 2013 only had 1.2" of snowfall here in Marshall. Shows that we can still have a great winter without much snow during the month before MET winter. As Tom has pointed out tho, this winter may well begin early and thus this November may break the mold so to speak. At least in modern times.

Very nice info Jaster. Great points you made there.


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#104
Niko

Posted 31 October 2018 - 05:50 AM

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The graphic above are the 30mb temps, not the SST’s, but you are right regarding the impressive warmth of the waters in the NE PAC which are in deed impacting the general region nearby.

As long as Alaska stays warm, we are all happy campers here in the lower 48.


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#105
Esquimalt

Posted 31 October 2018 - 05:52 AM

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Looking out farther, nearly every model is now starting to agree that a big shot of arctic air is on the table post 6th/7th storm system. This may even tug down a piece of the Vortex if everything lines. In a season which everything seems to be aligning, why not??? I've showed the clues off the GEFS 10mb forecasts and they are becoming very clear, the Polar Vortex will be perturbed as we head into early November and reminds me of how it evolved in the very cold '13-'14 season....stretched out and perturbed...it was not long ago, this particular model was not agreeing at 500mb with it's own 10mb forecasts and I knew without any doubts it would trend colder, much colder.

Yeah Tom it’s truly amazing. From the gfs ensembles, we’re looking at 3-4 degree temp anomalies on 850 mb level the entire 8 to 15th period! What is the EPS mean looking like on that period?

#106
Tom

Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:18 AM

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Yeah Tom it’s truly amazing. From the gfs ensembles, we’re looking at 3-4 degree temp anomalies on 850 mb level the entire 8 to 15th period! What is the EPS mean looking like on that period?


The EPS has lead the way with the colder look and still is maintaining it through the extended, except for the last couple days or so where it may back off a bit which would be anticipated after an unloading of arctic air.

#107
Esquimalt

Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:46 AM

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The EPS has lead the way with the colder look and still is maintaining it through the extended, except for the last couple days or so where it may back off a bit which would be anticipated after an unloading of arctic air.


How cool does the EPS believe it to be?

#108
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:09 AM

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Canadian wants to keep Fri interesting for SMI. Would be nice if it's right. 

 

Attached File  20181031 0z gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png   166.37KB   4 downloads

 

 


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#109
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:28 AM

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Overnight runs are beginning to show some consistency towards another system digging deep into the S Plains early next week and cutting up towards the GL's.  The GFS/GGEM are showing a GL's bomb, while the Euro has taken a step back but still advertising a healthy storm around the GL's.  I'm loving the way these systems are literally digging and energizing right over our sub forum and keeping the action smack dab in the central CONUS.  Some of you on here may remember the storms during the '77-'78 era...did they track in a similar fashion???  I mean, this area of our region is action packed with systems every other day it seems.

 

Individual 00z GEFS members are showing a lot of big systems...

 

gefs_ptype_21_greatlakes_180.png

 

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS individual members are reminiscent of the old fashioned storm tracks that pound the region in the winter season...00z EPS members are also looking similar....this will likely be our next storm thread....

 

Classic Chi-town to Mackinaw powerhouse system..and that's the ensemble mean. What if part of this season's M.O. is that storms actually trend towards the stronger side of the mean? Wouldn't that be sweet for a change?  :)


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#110
Niko

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:30 AM

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Canadian wants to keep Fri interesting for SMI. Would be nice if it's right. 

 

attachicon.gif20181031 0z gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

What a great track.



#111
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:30 AM

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Canadian wants to keep Fri interesting for SMI. Would be nice if it's right. 

 

attachicon.gif20181031 0z gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

 

I might add, that's like the perfect SLP placement for Marshall. Nice to finally see this stuff on models (that aren't 200+ hrs out)



#112
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:38 AM

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Interesting that WPC likes SMI for a "mix" on Friday. Local office not biting ofc 

 

Attached File  20181031 WPC d3 map for Fri Nov02.gif   180.12KB   2 downloads


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#113
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:40 AM

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I'm still here, friends. :) I'm just watching and observing the beauty of all the moving parts of this Northern Hemisphere pattern. It's a beautiful thing to see. Great things are still on the way. They didn't get wasted in October either and the Arctic is reloading at the right time. When it discharges across the pole next time,...., game, set, match.
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#114
Hawkeye

Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:16 AM

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The models are all backing off the storm winding up in time to give too much to Iowa next week.  However, it still looks cold following the system.  Today's 12z euro has highs in the 20s and lows in the teens across Iowa for the first time by day 9/10.  It may not pan out that cold, but this is coldest air on any euro run this season.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#115
FarmerRick

Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:31 AM

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Zzzzzz.....  :mellow:


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#116
Andie

Posted 31 October 2018 - 01:26 PM

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Texas is seeing a good deal of rain today, some quite heavy which has beaten a lot of the colorful leaves off the trees.
I've seen over 1"so we're 24" over normal for the year with it still raining.
54* with low of 49* tonight.

Some of you have mentioned Jan. Of 78 storm in your models.
I was in Aurora,Ill.for that storm. 75mph+ winds and over110" of snow that winter. Lost track of final snowfall.
This was a rough storm. House shook like it would collapse at times.
You'll love it! If that happens. :)
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#117
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 October 2018 - 01:52 PM

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Zzzzzz.....  :mellow:

No kidding. Models are pretty d**n boring here for the near future.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#118
CentralNebWeather

Posted 31 October 2018 - 02:00 PM

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No kidding. Models are pretty d**n boring here for the near future.


NWS Hastings basically saying northwest flow for awhile with periodic precipitation chances with anything of substance north and east of us. Maybe some changes by the middle of November, we’ll see.

#119
Thunder98

Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:01 PM

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Cold and Cloudy forecasts for Wausau, WI, Duluth, MN, Marquette, MI, and Minot, ND!

 

Attached File  wausauwiwxforecast10.PNG   52.67KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  duluthmnwxforcast16.PNG   55.59KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  MarquetteMIwxforecast3.PNG   53.3KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  MinotNDwxforecast4.PNG   53.19KB   0 downloads



#120
Niko

Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:47 PM

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Interesting that WPC likes SMI for a "mix" on Friday. Local office not biting ofc 

 

attachicon.gif20181031 WPC d3 map for Fri Nov02.gif

Rain/snow likely for my area Friday nite. Lets see how that plays out.


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#121
Esquimalt

Posted 31 October 2018 - 04:49 PM

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Wow take a look at that 18Z GFS (called the drunk uncle on the western board!).  ITs showing a heavy snowfall for a large portion of Ontario, Quebec and the north-east.  It also shows what appears to be lake effect snow for three days after the front!  



#122
jaster220

Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:32 PM

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Wow take a look at that 18Z GFS (called the drunk uncle on the western board!).  ITs showing a heavy snowfall for a large portion of Ontario, Quebec and the north-east.  It also shows what appears to be lake effect snow for three days after the front!  

 

I thought the CMC was the "drunk uncle". At any rate, yet another GFS fantasy range bomb. The models (atmosphere?) sure are trying to put something together in the next 2 wks. They all take turns flashing magic as I like to say.

 

Hopefully this entire effort isn't wasted on rainers. Wouldn't that be a serious crotch kick!

 

Looks like another "double-barrel low". For the record, I'm a fan of that theme.

 

Attached File  20181031 18z gfs_h276 LOL.png   185.7KB   1 downloads


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#123
gimmesnow

Posted 31 October 2018 - 07:05 PM

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Nice, snow blowing weather will be coming to SE Wisconsin in a week or so at this rate. Alpine Valley added around 30 to 50 new snow guns, it's time to rip!


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#124
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:06 PM

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Best we get the boring pattern here over with now than have it last throughout December like last year. I do believe there will be a turning point here in a couple weeks where we will finally get rid of this horrendous NW flow. The worst part is this isn't even the kind of NW flow that brings nice weather. It's just a constant thin cloud type of overcast, which is lose-lose because it's not gloomy enough to make for Netflix and chill type weather, but it's also too cloudy for photography. Sigh. Torture.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#125
Esquimalt

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:43 PM

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Tomorrow we start a new month. What do you guys see as the pattern for the next two weeks?

#126
clintbeed1993

Posted 01 November 2018 - 01:44 AM

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Tomorrow we start a new month. What do you guys see as the pattern for the next two weeks?

 

Garbage


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#127
Tom

Posted 01 November 2018 - 02:26 AM

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Welcome to November!  My, oh my, is time flying by.  Seriously though, it feels like not along ago I was still enjoying summer wx in early Sept.  Now that we are in full Autumn mode, we have the holidays to look forward to and tracking winter storms.  Speaking of storm systems, we have an impactful storm inundating the South, S MW and OV with torrential rains and severe wx.  I got my eye on this one in future cycles.

 

 

sfcmap.gif

 

 

 

Latest CPC Outlook for November is not in agreement with the blowtorch CFSv2...

 

Tab4FileL.png?d2e9ea0fec4f8f6a0ea9566e82


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#128
Tom

Posted 01 November 2018 - 03:40 AM

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After analyzing the data, including the JMA Weeklies, it will be the first time this cold season that some models are struggling.  For instance, we have the CFSv2/JMA suggesting a torch for Weeks 3-4 while the Euro Weeklies argue the opposite.  The CFSv2 has been having issues lately and has been very warm which JB and others have opined on, but to see the JMA agree one has to wonder what may be causing this conclusion???  Well, it's that time of year when I believe the behavior of the Strat can put a wrench into long range forecasting.  For instance, I've showed several examples since Sept where to look for ridges/troughs when taking a look at the 30mb warming data to get a 2-3 week lead time on where we can expect these ridges/troughs to develop.  This is where I think the models will bust, and it has a lot to do with the NE PAC waters, as well as, the continuation of the Greenland block.  

 

Both the JMA/CFSv2 completely loose the Greenland Block in Weeks 2-4 which bring us through the rest of the month.  I do think it will break down some as we head into December.  So, here we see the blow torch JMA Weeks 3-4....

 

Weeks 3-4 temps....

 

 

Y201810.D3112_gl2.png

 

 

It's 500mb pattern below showing why the big ridge forms in the eastern CONUS...this, is where I think the bust happens and I actually think there will be a big NE PAC ridge right where the model has a trough later in November.  Why?  Well, look at the 30mb warming growing since late Oct and will likely grow even larger.  Let's see if we can make it 3 for 3 in terms of forecasting the overall pattern in the Long Range using this technique.

 

temp30anim.gif

Week 3-4...

 

Y201810.D3112_gl0.png

 

 

Whats really interesting is to see the GEFS completely reverse into a much colder pattern for Week 2 as we set are sights on our first real arctic outbreak after the 7th.  Actually, the 00z Euro has subzero temps slipping into the Dakotas for the first time this season around Day 9-10 and some arctic frontal snows in the Upper MW/GL's.  The foundation to brewing cold is being laid down by systems across S Canada as we head deeper into the cold season which is great to see this early.

 

 

Last nights 00z GEFS are indicating a stronger signal of 10mb warming take place over Russia/Siberia around Day 7-10 which impacts the rotation of the Polar Vortex.  Simply saying, this does not indicate a warm pattern for Week 2 and conflicts with the CFSv2/JMA.  If the GEFS are right, we may be seeing the Polar Vortex park itself on this side of the Pole by mid month.

 

Attached Files


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#129
Tom

Posted 01 November 2018 - 03:48 AM

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The current state of SST's across the N PAC are showcasing one of the more intriguing case studies for this coming winter season.  Check out the last 4 weeks of how the waters of cooled near the N PAC, creating some separation if one can see the warm "Blob" in the NE PAC and cool waters transitioning south of the Aleutians.

 

Oct 2nd...

 

Y201810.D0312_gls.png

 

Y201810.D1012_gls.png

 

Oct 16th...

 

Y201810.D1712_gls.png

 

Oct 23rd...

 

 

Y201810.D2412_gls.png

 

 

Oct 30th...

 

Finally, this weeks run is clearly showing the separation which is huge heading into the months of Dec-Feb....

 

Y201810.D3112_gls.png


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#130
Tom

Posted 01 November 2018 - 04:02 AM

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After looking at the 500mb pattern over the N PAC by Day 7-10, I may have to push back my call of when the LRC may re-cycle and fine tune it.  All the models are sniffing out a stout Aleutian Ridge Day 7-10 which would correlate to a stout EC ridge between 11/25-11/28.  Another roughly 47-day cycle in the works???  Let's see how this shakes out.

Attached Files



#131
Tom

Posted 01 November 2018 - 04:37 AM

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Be wary of any sustained ridge to take hold over the central CONUS late in Week 2, it will be transitory and not lock like the CFSv2/JMA are suggesting.

 

 

While the MJO does head into Phase 3, which correlates to a ridge across our sub, it will veer quickly into the null phase.  The GEFS/EPS are seeing this in the extended and advertising a somewhat pullback late in Week 2.

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

combined_image.png


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#132
westMJim

Posted 01 November 2018 - 04:54 AM

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Welcome to November

As we start a new month lets have a short  wrap on October 2018. This past October was a wet one here in Grand Rapids with 5.69” of rain falling (there was a trace of snow on both the 19th and 20th) The mean temperature was 50.4° that was a departure of -0.6° this was the 1st month of below average mean temperature since April. The High for the month was 84° on October 9th that was a record high for that date. The low for the month was 27° on the 18th  October 2018 will go down as a month with a warm 1st half and a cool 2nd half as October 14th was the last day Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better. Looking ahead at November there have only been 9 past November's where the temperature did not reach 60 or better in November so there is a good chance Grand Rapids seeing a 60° day or better. In fact it has gotten to 70° or better in 36 of the past Novembers here in Grand Rapids. The average H/L starts out at 54/37 and falls to 40/28 by the end of the month. The record high in Grand Rapids for November is 81° on November 1, 1950 and the record coldest was later that same year when the low reached -10° on 25th. The average rain fall is 3.51" the wettest was 7.90" in 2003 and the driest is 1904 when only 0.4" was reported. As for snow fall the average is 6.8" the most is 31.0" in 2014 and the least snow fall is 0" reported in 1906 and 1907, there are 5 other Novembers were just a trace was reported that last time that happened was in 2001. Ever other November has seen at least 0.1" of snow fall. In 8 of the past Novembers leading into a weak El Nino the November snow fall was above the average with only one 2006/07 being well below average, Based on the past I would say there is a good chance of this November seeing a day or more of 60° or better and seeing at least 7" of snow fall, If Grand Rapids does not see a 60° day in November here is a list of years GR did not and the date of the last 60° day.  1907 last 60° day Oct 22, 1919 Oct 31, 1920 Oct 23, 1921 Oct 31, 1925 Oct 13, 1967 No 60° days in November but there was one in December. 1969 Oct 13, 1976 Oct 15, and 1997 Oct 31. So if GRR does not record a 60 day in November or December this year will be on a short list. 


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#133
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:01 AM

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I thought the CMC was the "drunk uncle". At any rate, yet another GFS fantasy range bomb. The models (atmosphere?) sure are trying to put something together in the next 2 wks. They all take turns flashing magic as I like to say.

 

Hopefully this entire effort isn't wasted on rainers. Wouldn't that be a serious crotch kick!

 

Looks like another "double-barrel low". For the record, I'm a fan of that theme.

 

attachicon.gif20181031 18z gfs_h276 LOL.png

Man, that looks sweet.


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#134
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:02 AM

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Currently, rain and temps in the 40s. Very raw morning outside.



#135
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:48 AM

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My radar is loaded w moisture. Man, if this was deeper into Autumn w colder air around.

 

cad.gif

 

@Jaster...Not sure if YBY is getting any on this buddy, my thinking is that you are escaping the brunt of this moisture, no?!

 

Can you imagine if it were Winter now and I was getting an all out snowstorm here, while, your area was on the fringes of all of this??!! Yikes..you would be put on Suicide Watch. :lol:


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#136
jaster220

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:58 AM

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My radar is loaded w moisture. Man, if this was deeper into Autumn w colder air around.

 

cad.gif

 

@Jaster...Not sure if YBY is getting any on this buddy, my thinking is that you are escaping the brunt of this moisture, no?!

 

Can you imagine if it were Winter now and I was getting an all out snowstorm here, while, your area was on the fringes of all of this??!! Yikes..you would be put on Suicide Watch. :lol:

 

Modest event qpf-wise back here in Marshall. Looks like 0.5" (GEM more generous at maybe 0.7") for a blend of models. Would be a chilly grinder style storm if indeed it were snow. A lot like New Years weekend 2014's storm. 



#137
Esquimalt

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:04 AM

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Very cold first 12Z GFS run of the month, until a blowtorch at the end.  A lot of cold air bottled up will be released in the second week of November, but it remains to be seen whether it can mix with a low.  


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#138
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:38 AM

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Radar is loaded w moisture and looks like rain all day long and continuing into tanite. Temps remain pretty uniform, in the mid 40s. Definitely a dreary, cold Autumn day here in SEMI.



#139
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:36 AM

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This would have been a great snowmaker!!!!

 

cad.gif



#140
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:36 AM

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So congrats Rochester, Eau Claire and La Crosse on the 12z Euro. Wowzers.
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#141
Esquimalt

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:52 AM

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So congrats Rochester, Eau Claire and La Crosse on the 12z Euro. Wowzers.


Yeah amazing cold. Not great for michigan, Ohio, Ontario, Pennsylvania or New York though.
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#142
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 November 2018 - 12:15 PM

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Itching for wintery weather here, but I think back to last year we had virtually nothing until right before Christmas.  Around this area, if we have a large November snow storm it usually bodes well for the rest of the winter.  I know in some places in this vast forum, that is not the case.  


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#143
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:14 PM

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Still raining w temps in the 40s. Rain has been non-stop all day.


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#144
jaster220

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:16 PM

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@ Okwx2k4

 

FV3 says "knock-knock" buddy

 

Attached File  20181101 18z FV3 h174.png   180.84KB   0 downloads


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#145
jaster220

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:19 PM

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Still raining w temps in the 40s. Rain has been non-stop all day.

 

Yep. Even had a period of larger drops around 2 pm. Now this is autumn! Temp after work was stuck at 41F. Will see many more bare trees after this as well.


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#146
jaster220

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:21 PM

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So congrats Rochester, Eau Claire and La Crosse on the 12z Euro. Wowzers.

 

While almost all other guidance takes a track quite a bit east. Be interesting to see who caves to whom with this one.



#147
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:23 PM

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Yep. Even had a period of larger drops around 2 pm. Now this is autumn! Temp after work was stuck at 41F. Will see many more bare trees after this as well.

Exactly. Cannot believe the amount of moisture that was associated w this storm. If only this was deeper into Autumn and w cold air around, I could have been looking at 12"+ IMBY.


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#148
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:25 PM

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@ Jaster

 

Things get interesting late next week. Cold air might be getting mix w a LP area. My forecast is calling for rain/snow mix changing to all snow Friday nite.  Weekend looks unsettled as well.  Something to keep an eye on.


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#149
Niko

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:26 PM

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@ Okwx2k4

 

FV3 says "knock-knock" buddy

 

attachicon.gif20181101 18z FV3 h174.png

Looks like that snowline making a B-Line towards us.



#150
Money

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:01 PM

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Gfs caving to the euro with the storm next week

Big time storm (although showing all rain)
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