November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Esquimalt]

Wow take a look at that 18Z GFS (called the drunk uncle on the western board!).  ITs showing a heavy snowfall for a large portion of Ontario, Quebec and the north-east.  It also shows what appears to be lake effect snow for three days after the front!  

[jaster220]

Wow take a look at that 18Z GFS (called the drunk uncle on the western board!).  ITs showing a heavy snowfall for a large portion of Ontario, Quebec and the north-east.  It also shows what appears to be lake effect snow for three days after the front!  

 

I thought the CMC was the "drunk uncle". At any rate, yet another GFS fantasy range bomb. The models (atmosphere?) sure are trying to put something together in the next 2 wks. They all take turns flashing magic as I like to say.

 

Hopefully this entire effort isn't wasted on rainers. Wouldn't that be a serious crotch kick!

 

Looks like another "double-barrel low". For the record, I'm a fan of that theme.

 

[gimmesnow]

Nice, snow blowing weather will be coming to SE Wisconsin in a week or so at this rate. Alpine Valley added around 30 to 50 new snow guns, it's time to rip!

[Minny_Weather]

Best we get the boring pattern here over with now than have it last throughout December like last year. I do believe there will be a turning point here in a couple weeks where we will finally get rid of this horrendous NW flow. The worst part is this isn't even the kind of NW flow that brings nice weather. It's just a constant thin cloud type of overcast, which is lose-lose because it's not gloomy enough to make for Netflix and chill type weather, but it's also too cloudy for photography. Sigh. Torture.

[Esquimalt]

Tomorrow we start a new month. What do you guys see as the pattern for the next two weeks?

[clintbeed1993]

Tomorrow we start a new month. What do you guys see as the pattern for the next two weeks?

 

Garbage

[Tom]

Welcome to November!  My, oh my, is time flying by.  Seriously though, it feels like not along ago I was still enjoying summer wx in early Sept.  Now that we are in full Autumn mode, we have the holidays to look forward to and tracking winter storms.  Speaking of storm systems, we have an impactful storm inundating the South, S MW and OV with torrential rains and severe wx.  I got my eye on this one in future cycles.

 

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/sfcmap.gif

 

 

 

Latest CPC Outlook for November is not in agreement with the blowtorch CFSv2...

 

[Tom]

After analyzing the data, including the JMA Weeklies, it will be the first time this cold season that some models are struggling.  For instance, we have the CFSv2/JMA suggesting a torch for Weeks 3-4 while the Euro Weeklies argue the opposite.  The CFSv2 has been having issues lately and has been very warm which JB and others have opined on, but to see the JMA agree one has to wonder what may be causing this conclusion???  Well, it's that time of year when I believe the behavior of the Strat can put a wrench into long range forecasting.  For instance, I've showed several examples since Sept where to look for ridges/troughs when taking a look at the 30mb warming data to get a 2-3 week lead time on where we can expect these ridges/troughs to develop.  This is where I think the models will bust, and it has a lot to do with the NE PAC waters, as well as, the continuation of the Greenland block.  

 

Both the JMA/CFSv2 completely loose the Greenland Block in Weeks 2-4 which bring us through the rest of the month.  I do think it will break down some as we head into December.  So, here we see the blow torch JMA Weeks 3-4....

 

Weeks 3-4 temps....

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D3112_gl2.png

 

 

It's 500mb pattern below showing why the big ridge forms in the eastern CONUS...this, is where I think the bust happens and I actually think there will be a big NE PAC ridge right where the model has a trough later in November.  Why?  Well, look at the 30mb warming growing since late Oct and will likely grow even larger.  Let's see if we can make it 3 for 3 in terms of forecasting the overall pattern in the Long Range using this technique.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

Week 3-4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D3112_gl0.png

 

 

Whats really interesting is to see the GEFS completely reverse into a much colder pattern for Week 2 as we set are sights on our first real arctic outbreak after the 7th.  Actually, the 00z Euro has subzero temps slipping into the Dakotas for the first time this season around Day 9-10 and some arctic frontal snows in the Upper MW/GL's.  The foundation to brewing cold is being laid down by systems across S Canada as we head deeper into the cold season which is great to see this early.

 

 

Last nights 00z GEFS are indicating a stronger signal of 10mb warming take place over Russia/Siberia around Day 7-10 which impacts the rotation of the Polar Vortex.  Simply saying, this does not indicate a warm pattern for Week 2 and conflicts with the CFSv2/JMA.  If the GEFS are right, we may be seeing the Polar Vortex park itself on this side of the Pole by mid month.

 

[Tom]

The current state of SST's across the N PAC are showcasing one of the more intriguing case studies for this coming winter season.  Check out the last 4 weeks of how the waters of cooled near the N PAC, creating some separation if one can see the warm "Blob" in the NE PAC and cool waters transitioning south of the Aleutians.

 

Oct 2nd...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D0312_gls.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1012_gls.png

 

Oct 16th...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D1712_gls.png

 

Oct 23rd...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D2412_gls.png

 

 

Oct 30th...

 

Finally, this weeks run is clearly showing the separation which is huge heading into the months of Dec-Feb....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D3112_gls.png

[Tom]

After looking at the 500mb pattern over the N PAC by Day 7-10, I may have to push back my call of when the LRC may re-cycle and fine tune it.  All the models are sniffing out a stout Aleutian Ridge Day 7-10 which would correlate to a stout EC ridge between 11/25-11/28.  Another roughly 47-day cycle in the works???  Let's see how this shakes out.

[Tom]

Be wary of any sustained ridge to take hold over the central CONUS late in Week 2, it will be transitory and not lock like the CFSv2/JMA are suggesting.

 

 

While the MJO does head into Phase 3, which correlates to a ridge across our sub, it will veer quickly into the null phase.  The GEFS/EPS are seeing this in the extended and advertising a somewhat pullback late in Week 2.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

[westMJim]

Welcome to November

As we start a new month lets have a short  wrap on October 2018. This past October was a wet one here in Grand Rapids with 5.69” of rain falling (there was a trace of snow on both the 19^th and 20^th) The mean temperature was 50.4° that was a departure of -0.6° this was the 1^st month of below average mean temperature since April. The High for the month was 84° on October 9^th that was a record high for that date. The low for the month was 27° on the 18^th  October 2018 will go down as a month with a warm 1^st half and a cool 2^nd half as October 14^th was the last day Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better. Looking ahead at November there have only been 9 past November's where the temperature did not reach 60 or better in November so there is a good chance Grand Rapids seeing a 60° day or better. In fact it has gotten to 70° or better in 36 of the past Novembers here in Grand Rapids. The average H/L starts out at 54/37 and falls to 40/28 by the end of the month. The record high in Grand Rapids for November is 81° on November 1, 1950 and the record coldest was later that same year when the low reached -10° on 25th. The average rain fall is 3.51" the wettest was 7.90" in 2003 and the driest is 1904 when only 0.4" was reported. As for snow fall the average is 6.8" the most is 31.0" in 2014 and the least snow fall is 0" reported in 1906 and 1907, there are 5 other Novembers were just a trace was reported that last time that happened was in 2001. Ever other November has seen at least 0.1" of snow fall. In 8 of the past Novembers leading into a weak El Nino the November snow fall was above the average with only one 2006/07 being well below average, Based on the past I would say there is a good chance of this November seeing a day or more of 60° or better and seeing at least 7" of snow fall, If Grand Rapids does not see a 60° day in November here is a list of years GR did not and the date of the last 60° day.  1907 last 60° day Oct 22, 1919 Oct 31, 1920 Oct 23, 1921 Oct 31, 1925 Oct 13, 1967 No 60° days in November but there was one in December. 1969 Oct 13, 1976 Oct 15, and 1997 Oct 31. So if GRR does not record a 60 day in November or December this year will be on a short list. 

[Niko]

I thought the CMC was the "drunk uncle". At any rate, yet another GFS fantasy range bomb. The models (atmosphere?) sure are trying to put something together in the next 2 wks. They all take turns flashing magic as I like to say.

 

Hopefully this entire effort isn't wasted on rainers. Wouldn't that be a serious crotch kick!

 

Looks like another "double-barrel low". For the record, I'm a fan of that theme.

 

20181031 18z gfs_h276 LOL.png

Man, that looks sweet.

[Niko]

Currently, rain and temps in the 40s. Very raw morning outside.

[Niko]

My radar is loaded w moisture. Man, if this was deeper into Autumn w colder air around.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Radar/cad.gif

 

@Jaster...Not sure if YBY is getting any on this buddy, my thinking is that you are escaping the brunt of this moisture, no?!

 

Can you imagine if it were Winter now and I was getting an all out snowstorm here, while, your area was on the fringes of all of this??!! Yikes..you would be put on Suicide Watch.

[jaster220]

My radar is loaded w moisture. Man, if this was deeper into Autumn w colder air around.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Radar/cad.gif

 

@Jaster...Not sure if YBY is getting any on this buddy, my thinking is that you are escaping the brunt of this moisture, no?!

 

Can you imagine if it were Winter now and I was getting an all out snowstorm here, while, your area was on the fringes of all of this??!! Yikes..you would be put on Suicide Watch.

 

Modest event qpf-wise back here in Marshall. Looks like 0.5" (GEM more generous at maybe 0.7") for a blend of models. Would be a chilly grinder style storm if indeed it were snow. A lot like New Years weekend 2014's storm. 

[Esquimalt]

Very cold first 12Z GFS run of the month, until a blowtorch at the end.  A lot of cold air bottled up will be released in the second week of November, but it remains to be seen whether it can mix with a low.  

[Niko]

Radar is loaded w moisture and looks like rain all day long and continuing into tanite. Temps remain pretty uniform, in the mid 40s. Definitely a dreary, cold Autumn day here in SEMI.

[Niko]

This would have been a great snowmaker!!!!

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Radar/cad.gif

[St Paul Storm]

So congrats Rochester, Eau Claire and La Crosse on the 12z Euro. Wowzers.

[Esquimalt]

So congrats Rochester, Eau Claire and La Crosse on the 12z Euro. Wowzers.

Yeah amazing cold. Not great for michigan, Ohio, Ontario, Pennsylvania or New York though.

[CentralNebWeather]

Itching for wintery weather here, but I think back to last year we had virtually nothing until right before Christmas.  Around this area, if we have a large November snow storm it usually bodes well for the rest of the winter.  I know in some places in this vast forum, that is not the case.  

[Niko]

Still raining w temps in the 40s. Rain has been non-stop all day.

[jaster220]

@ Okwx2k4

 

FV3 says "knock-knock" buddy

 

[jaster220]

Still raining w temps in the 40s. Rain has been non-stop all day.

 

Yep. Even had a period of larger drops around 2 pm. Now this is autumn! Temp after work was stuck at 41F. Will see many more bare trees after this as well.

[jaster220]

So congrats Rochester, Eau Claire and La Crosse on the 12z Euro. Wowzers.

 

While almost all other guidance takes a track quite a bit east. Be interesting to see who caves to whom with this one.

[Niko]

Yep. Even had a period of larger drops around 2 pm. Now this is autumn! Temp after work was stuck at 41F. Will see many more bare trees after this as well.

Exactly. Cannot believe the amount of moisture that was associated w this storm. If only this was deeper into Autumn and w cold air around, I could have been looking at 12"+ IMBY.

[Niko]

@ Jaster

 

Things get interesting late next week. Cold air might be getting mix w a LP area. My forecast is calling for rain/snow mix changing to all snow Friday nite.  Weekend looks unsettled as well.  Something to keep an eye on.

[Niko]

@ Okwx2k4

 

FV3 says "knock-knock" buddy

 

20181101 18z FV3 h174.png

Looks like that snowline making a B-Line towards us.

[Money]

Gfs caving to the euro with the storm next week

 

Big time storm (although showing all rain)

[hlcater]

Gfs caving to the euro with the storm next week

 

Big time storm (although showing all rain)

The warm sector in the lower OV and dixie is particularly interesting.

[OKwx2k4]

Ahem...I'm still here.

Beep beep!

[Esquimalt]

Ahem...I'm still here.

Beep beep!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

Thats a nice one cause its hitting you and Oklahoma and us in Ontario at the same time...that way everyone can be happy!  Also, the 00Z features some extremely cold air.  

[OKwx2k4]

Thats a nice one cause its hitting you and Oklahoma and us in Ontario at the same time...that way everyone can be happy! Also, the 00Z features some extremely cold air.

Only 10 more days away. Lol

[james1976]

That is a cold run on tonight's GFS. Dang. Full blown winter on some of those frames.

[Money]

Thats a nice one cause its hitting you and Oklahoma and us in Ontario at the same time...that way everyone can be happy!  Also, the 00Z features some extremely cold air.

 

What about us folks in NE/IA/WI/MI/IL/MN?

[Money]

0z euro gets the low down to 982 just east of GB

 

Pretty good consistency 5 days out (gfs, cmc, euro) all pretty similar in terms of track

[Tom]

I fired up an Election Day storm thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1880-election-day-glsmw-storm-system/

[Minny_Weather]

Euro brings the PV down towards Hudson Bay/Ontario next weekend. Of course, here we will feel very little effect from that because we will be locked in a ridge! Jesus f***** Christ, is one good November too much to ask for?

 

Should bring the GLs region the coldest temperatures of the season so far if that pans out.

[Tom]

Euro brings the PV down towards Hudson Bay/Ontario next weekend. Of course, here we will feel very little effect from that because we will be locked in a ridge! Jesus f***** Christ, is one good November too much to ask for?

 

Should bring the GLs region the coldest temperatures of the season so far if that pans out.

Relax bud, you will feel the effects, its the Euro having problems keeping troughs in the west to long.  We will all feel the cold next week and I think you may see some more snow along an arctic frontal boundary.  Dare I say, powder in early November???