Jump to content

November 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Its a chilly, wet morning outside w temps in the 40s. Rain has finally ended. Although, it will remain cloudy and misty for the rest of the day.

 

 

Much colder air arrives late next week. My highs not getting outta the 30s w snowshowers around. Lows dipping down into the 20s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its a chilly, wet morning outside w temps in the 40s. Rain has finally ended. Although, it will remain cloudy and misty for the rest of the day.

 

 

Much colder air arrives late next week. My highs not getting outta the 30s w snowshowers around. Lows dipping down into the 20s.

The forecasters don’t seem to be biting it thou.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Relax bud, you will feel the effects, its the Euro having problems keeping troughs in the west to long. We will all feel the cold next week and I think you may see some more snow along an arctic frontal boundary. Dare I say, powder in early November???

One of the models, I think GFS, has been advertising a clipper system making its way down here in the mid range.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The forecasters don’t seem to be biting it thou.

Its a week away

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Relax bud, you will feel the effects, its the Euro having problems keeping troughs in the west to long. We will all feel the cold next week and I think you may see some more snow along an arctic frontal boundary. Dare I say, powder in early November???

GFS has been consistently showing a lot of widespread cold after the system moves out next week. We will all be feeling that.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently at 44F w cloudy skies here in SEMI. Leaves are almost down. Definitely in the peak zone and nearing past peak. Soon all trees will be bare. I'd say about 55% are bare already.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know about other areas but here in the Grand Rapids, MI  area while the trees changed late I think the color this fall is some of the best it has been in many years.  Some sun with making that good color come out even better the current temperature here is 48°

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting that WPC likes SMI for a "mix" on Friday. Local office not biting ofc 

 

attachicon.gif20181031 WPC d3 map for Fri Nov02.gif

 

We actually did score some random "unknown precip type" overnight, and watching the radar loop looks like a nice blob of snow south of mby towards Coldwater

 

Currently at 44F w cloudy skies here in SEMI. Leaves are almost down. Definitely in the peak zone and nearing past peak. Soon all trees will be bare. I'd say about 55% are bare already.

 

Do you know  how much rain fell in Macomb?  Looks like the cut-off was extreme across SMI. BC reported .31", Marshall .4" but here in Jackson (I took a new position with a firm here) the airport recorded .84" qpf! which would likely have meant at least a solid double-digit snow fall based on 12:1 ratio. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We actually did score some random "unknown precip type" overnight, and watching the radar loop looks like a nice blob of snow south of mby towards Coldwater

 

 

Do you know  how much rain fell in Macomb?  Looks like the cut-off was extreme across SMI. BC reported .31", Marshall .4" but here in Jackson (I took a new position with a firm here) the airport recorded .84" qpf! which would likely have meant at least a solid double-digit snow fall based on 12:1 ratio. 

Ova an 1". 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Precipitation/cad.gif

 

 

If you go back on page 3 on this thread, lower part, towards the end, you will see that I posted that this could have been easily a 12"+. Hopefully, this is a sign to come w "Big Dogs" IMBY. IMHO, I already like the way storms are progressing, in terms of trackwise. Inundates our areas.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think prime areas for heavy snow this Winter will be Eastern Gl's region on eastward, due to storm movement coming from SW due NE, clobbering SEMI. We will see. JS will play a major roll in terms of which way the trough takes position.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two models this morning have a snow event and very cold air in about a week.  The euro has 6" of snow and a low temp of 6 here.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From DVN regarding this system.

 

 

Late in the week, the third, negatively tilted trough is forecast to
move across the area. There are differences in solutions at this
time, but this system with a much cooler thermal profile could be
our first chance for real snow with some strong wind. That said,
expect models to change a thermal profiles to change. One thing is
for sure, we have entered an active late Fall pattern.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is insane. Showing suppression in early-mid November. Thankfully it's a week out so plenty of time to correct itself North. Sorry OKwx, I hope you get screwed for my sake.

 

Euro is also showing a bomb for KC next week. I hate to root for KC, but I'd like to see them hit 3" for once so if they get bullseyed on this one then yay I guess. Plenty of time for that to move North as well though.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took an even bigger look at Euro. ******* Christ, full blown Barney rampage after the potential storm next Friday under the influence of a ~1030 hPa high. I might be going to the Husker game that Saturday and Euro is showing temps around 20 come kickoff time.

  • Like 3

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took an even bigger look at Euro. f***** Christ, full blown Barney rampage after the potential storm next Friday under the influence of a ~1030 hPa high. I might be going to the Husker game that Saturday and Euro is showing temps around 20 come kickoff time.

Yeah, but it’s showing a quick rebound to warmer temperatures. I much prefer the GFS solution that keeps the cold around much longer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, but it’s showing a quick rebound to warmer temperatures. I much prefer the GFS solution that keeps the cold around much longer.

I'm not seeing that. Temps well below normal all the way out to the end of the run for me. Looks like milder air may come our way shortly after, but that would mean near normal temps versus a blowtorch like we saw after the cold last November.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took an even bigger look at Euro. f***** Christ, full blown Barney rampage after the potential storm next Friday under the influence of a ~1030 hPa high. I might be going to the Husker game that Saturday and Euro is showing temps around 20 come kickoff time.

My son and I are coming to Lincoln for the game next Saturday. Winter weather gear for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is insane. Showing suppression in early-mid November. Thankfully it's a week out so plenty of time to correct itself North. Sorry OKwx, I hope you get screwed for my sake.

 

Euro is also showing a bomb for KC next week. I hate to root for KC, but I'd like to see them hit 3" for once so if they get bullseyed on this one then yay I guess. Plenty of time for that to move North as well though.

I missed this post somehow. :lol:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

D%MN!   Can't keep up with this stuff popping with every model run. Tom's gonna be right..a Novemba to rememba!! Perhaps not seen in a long long time

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whew what a snowfall event for ontario on the 13th being depicted on the 18Z.  Michigan and Indiana also appear to be in the fun.  But in Ontario, the low stalls and swirls around!  Incredible.  

 

Model??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, the 18Z FV3 GFS shows a crippling storm for the great lakes/ontario.   It would appear that snowfall amounts in excess of 10 inches are possible with this one.    Check it out!

 

I just had to roll this loop :lol: :D

 

Four systems firing off basically like a volley...boom...boom...boom

 

Don't know if I've ever even seen this modeled before tbh?

 

GIF won't load??

Edited by jaster220

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just had to roll this loop :lol: :D

 

Four systems firing off basically like a volley...boom...boom...boom

 

Don't know if I've ever even seen this modeled before tbh?

 

GIF won't load??

If those returns shown for the north shores of Lake  Ontario come true it would be historic imo.  Just crazy stuff. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets get things rockin and rolling. By late next week, it is looking stormy and colder.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PER NOAA:

A second low pressure system will bring additional precipitation
chances late Thursday into Friday. Too much uncertainty regarding
temperature to advertise precipitation type with high confidence,
however, at this time forecasted lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
would be cold enough to support snow for northern counties and
perhaps more rain/snow across the northern Detroit area.

 

 

Still plenty of time to iron this one out.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to be in South Dakota on the 10th and 11th. Looks to be nice and chilly!

 

Was 45F and partly sunny after work this evening and felt pretty nice actually. Considering we had mid-80's just a few weeks ago it's surprising how quickly one can get adjusted. Looks like another major adjustment is right around the corner. Gotta remember to air-up your vehicle tires as the temps get suddenly colder this month.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...