November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Esquimalt]

Same with the EC at onset, which in the protected Mitt isn't unreasonable tbh at this time of year. Evap cooling will usually kick in during the heavier precip with rain and/or drizzle on either side. Temps as shown fall off thru the day Friday into the mid-20's (brr). This isn't that deep of a system so the cold won't be rushing in like you get with a true bomb storm. This would be just a nice modest beginning to the snow season as currently depicted.

Yeah I don't always truste raw model precip output, because it often misses evaporative cooling, sleet, wet snow and all of that good stuff.

[jaster220]

Bingo

 

 

[bud2380]

Canadian has the weekend clipper that the GFS is showing as well, but further north, mostly Northern IA, Southern, MN into WI.  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018110412/174/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[GDR]

Ha ha models look like last year!!

[Minny_Weather]

Yup, now Euro's weakening it. Still covers a lot of Kansas but in lighter amounts.

[jaster220]

Canadian has the weekend clipper that the GFS is showing as well, but further north, mostly Northern IA, Southern, MN into WI.  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018110412/174/snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

#CLIMO

[BrianJK]

Ha ha models look like last year!!

Exactly what I was thinking

[Iowawx]

24 hour rain total for this system is 1.35" 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 1.33" from this system.  I never saw any downpours.  It was basically 16 hours of mostly light to occasionally moderate rain.

 

The models may have dropped the late-week snow system for Iowa, but the cold is still there.  Today's 12z euro even extended the cold through day ten, showing nothing but 20s and 30s.

[james1976]

What a rainy weekend. Over inch and a half here. Wish it were snow!

[Esquimalt]

From NWS Detroit AFD:

 

Confidence remains low regarding precipitation chances Friday as

long-range models fail to converge on a steady solution and have

produced drastic changes from run-to-run. GFS, which held

precipitation (snow) chances across SE MI late Thursday into early

Friday across SE MI per yesterday`s 12Z run now hold the

precipitation well to the south, across southern Ohio. The ECMWF is

persistent with precipitation chances early Friday, however, the

solution space is now colder, supporting snow at the onset of

precipitation. At this time, holding onto chance PoPs early Friday

until better convergence is noted.

[Esquimalt]

Just saw this on twitter...day 5 to 10 average on the Euro at 2m...this is truly amazing!

[OKwx2k4]

@esquimalt. Compare with 2014...

[Esquimalt]

@esquimalt. Compare with 2014...

FB_IMG_1541355353048.jpg

 

It appears a lot colder this time...

[Madtown]

waves from some news cams on lake Michigan are insane!

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like our Wednesday/Thursday snow is fizzling out. Boo.

[Thunder98]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[Esquimalt]

I don't like the trend in the GFS today.  It has been trending the Friday system warmer and delaying the entry of cool air.

[GDR]

Looks like next weekends system wants to poop the bed also

[Niko]

Clouds are rolling in and rain on the way. Could be quite a bit too. Temp at 45F.

[clintbeed1993]

Again, another garbage pattern.  Cold is annoying with no snow to show for it.  Not a big deal though, snow in early November has a hard time sticking around. I'd rather get it in December.

[Esquimalt]

Again, another garbage pattern.  Cold is annoying with no snow to show for it.  Not a big deal though, snow in early November has a hard time sticking around. I'd rather get it in December.

 

Even up to Ontario it is.  As soon as the Great Lakes are factored in, they draw warmth and anything that looks like a snow maker becomes a rain maker.  Jeez frustrating.  

[Niko]

Temps are rising. At 49F at this hour.

[jaster220]

Even up to Ontario it is.  As soon as the Great Lakes are factored in, they draw warmth and anything that looks like a snow maker becomes a rain maker.  Jeez frustrating.  

 

Yep. Lake shadow's a snow killer for early season events. But it can sure add some inches to an event once we get to winter.

[Niko]

PER NOAA:

 

 

 

Confidence remains low regarding precipitation chances Friday as
long-range models fail to converge on a steady solution and have
produced drastic changes from run-to-run. GFS, which held
precipitation (snow) chances across SE MI late Thursday into early
Friday across SE MI per yesterday`s 12Z run now hold the
precipitation well to the south, across southern Ohio. The ECMWF is
persistent with precipitation chances early Friday, however, the
solution space is now colder, supporting snow at the onset of
precipitation. At this time, holding onto chance PoPs early Friday
until better convergence is noted.

 

Expect some changes as models are all ova the place.

[Niko]

Some rain now started to fall. Winds are a little gusty as well. Temps at 50F. Its a mild evening, that's for sure.

[St Paul Storm]

5 straight days with highs below 32F starting on Wed. Lows some nights in the mid teens. Impressive for early Nov.

[OKwx2k4]

Next 14 days still looking cold with some areas going to hang 8 to 15 degrees below average. That's cold right in the heart of the US for November.

 

There is a very realistic pullbak of about 6-10 days coming in after. (Opinion only) If we can sort of "short-cycle" the pattern over the next 15 days, the post-Thanksgiving week time frame could (should) snap back and reload like we saw in October(And like 2009.) . Looking at a November close and December opening something like a mix of 2009 and 2013. Only thing we have guaranteed in the mid range is eastern 1/2 USA cold and an arctic that is colder than 2013. Therefore I can't stay with a model that rides full US warming for the full closing 3 weeks. (Euro opening of December).

 

I think it is trying to slam too many ridges too close together.

[Minny_Weather]

Next 14 days still looking cold with some areas going to hang 8 to 15 degrees below average. That's cold right in the heart of the US for November.

 

There is a very realistic pullbak of about 6-10 days coming in after. (Opinion only) If we can sort of "short-cycle" the pattern over the next 15 days, the post-Thanksgiving week time frame could (should) snap back and reload like we saw in October(And like 2009.) . Looking at a November close and December opening something like a mix of 2009 and 2013. Only thing we have guaranteed in the mid range is eastern 1/2 USA cold and an arctic that is colder than 2013. Therefore I can't stay with a model that rides full US warming for the full closing 3 weeks. (Euro opening of December).

 

I think it is trying to slam too many ridges too close together.

Euro has had a notorious ridge bias lately if it's worth anything.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro has had a notorious ridge bias lately if it's worth anything.

Hence my post. I didn't know if anyone else had quite caught that. Still want to clarify though, not on the CONTINUOUS cold train (yet), just haven't really seen enough to tell me that this next warmup is much of a threat or anything other than a transient ridge complex like we saw in late summer and mid-fall.

[Esquimalt]

Do you guys use thickness to determine precip types? It has been used before on our west coast forums—typically 534 thickness and below is acceptable for snow. And if you look at the gfs for the 9th system, the snow line is practically right on the 540 line...

[gabel23]

We could only wish to see something like this!

[Esquimalt]

We could only wish to see something like this!

Jeez what tight snowfall gradients.

[Esquimalt]

D**n gfs gives Ontario rain with that system with an air temperature of 34/35. I wonder if it’s misrepresenting precip types or temps?

[Tom]

Good Monday to you all!  What a week of weather that is forthcoming.  As I mentioned before, even if I'm not in the direct spot to get hit with snow this week, as long as I can see the flakes fly during the upcoming cold snap I'm a happy camper.  I have yet to see the flakes fly so that's what I'm hoping for.  I think Chicago has a good shot at receiving its first 1"+ tally of snow by the end of the weekend.  With that being said, the GL's region looks very wintry late week and into the weekend.  Our MI peeps near the lake may be using their shovels/snow blowers as an intense early season arctic outbreak ignites the lake.

 

00z Euro...KC region still looks like they will see some snow later in the week.

[Tom]

I remember last year during Nov 8th-10th we had a PV-like intrusion that zipped across the GL's region due to the lack of blocking.  Something that really stands out from this year's pattern is the amount of blocking we have had across parts of Canada/AK which allow rotating lobes of arctic air to penetrate deep into the CONUS.  When looking back at the last couple years, we had a dominant northern stream storm track and a devil of a time to incorporate cold air into the wet pattern (except for those across the northern sub).  To the contrary, this season, we can finally say that we have the cold and systems are digging/energizing in our regions.

 

How do you get the coldest anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere on our side of the Pole???  Ask mother nature to park a lobe of the Polar Vortex across Canada.  Long ago, I had this feeling the main attention will be across North America this cold season and we will get a taste of that this month.  If everything works out just right, we are about to enter a record setting stretch of cold.

 

[Tom]

Another year, another Polar Vortex intrusion in November???  Unlike last year, this year we will see the PV dig deeper and rotate lobes across the eastern CONUS.  Just a remarkable pattern one I will vividly remember for a long time.

[westMJim]

Good Monday to you all!  What a week of weather that is forthcoming.  As I mentioned before, even if I'm not in the direct spot to get hit with snow this week, as long as I can see the flakes fly during the upcoming cold snap I'm a happy camper.  I have yet to see the flakes fly so that's what I'm hoping for.  I think Chicago has a good shot at receiving its first 1"+ tally of snow by the end of the weekend.  With that being said, the GL's region looks very wintry late week and into the weekend.  Our MI peeps near the lake may be using their shovels/snow blowers as an intense early season arctic outbreak ignites the lake.

 

00z Euro...KC region still looks like they will see some snow later in the week.

I have gas for the snow blower, One thing I will say about the above snow map  is that early in the season the first few lake snow events are many times further inland and not so much at the lake shore. The reason for that is the lake is still warm and that in turn keeps the lake shore areas warmer.  

[Niko]

Cloudy currently w temps quite mild at 51F. Showers are about to end.

 

Big time cold coming by weeks end. Hopefully, my area sees some flakes. Not looking very promising for any accumulations here IMBY. We will see. Temps for highs will be between 30-35 at its coldest and low 20s for low temps. BRRRRRRRRR!!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

We could only wish to see something like this!

Fun to look at for sure.