Timmy Supercell Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 A new month is upon us, and maybe the beginning of winter for the cascades. Happy Halloween! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Happy Halloween and let's pray for some heavy snow for all of us this season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Here's to an active cold season. At the very least I'm hoping to get that coldest high number a little lower in the coming weeks. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Early November had a very robust -PNA episode last year. One of the more impressive in years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 My prediction...a White Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years Day, MLK, Valentines Day, and Easter! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Looking pretty ninoish to me.It is niño-ish, but the meridional expanse of the WPAC warm pool definitely doesn’t jive with it. That’s just a downright outrageous anomaly right there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 It is niño-ish, but the meridional expanse of the WPAC warm pool definitely doesn’t jive with it. That’s just a downright outrageous anomaly right there.WOUld that fuel more dateline forcing going forward? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Perfect night for trick-or-treating. Rain stopped around 5 and it was dry and a little breezy and quite warm. Streets were packed with kids. Very festive. Several houses were having adult parties in the garage and driveway and a couple were handing out jello shots for the parents in addition to candy for the kids. Just a tiny bit of drizzle here and there here. Overall just cloudy though. The mild weather brought out quite a few kids this year. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 This was November 5th at Lake Goodwin.Currently light rain and 54. Won't forget that. Lakemont area after the snow. Hopefully the snow will come later in November this time around. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 57 this morning... warm start to November! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Forecasts calling for 2-3” of rain for parts of Greater Vancouver today. Should be much drier over here as we see lots of shadowing from the Vancouver Island mountains with this pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 3/4” of rain since last night. 55 currently. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Getting wet again. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Driest start to the year since 2008 for Seattle. Although the number of rainy days has been the same. This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years. https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/despite-recent-soggy-weather-its-driest-start-to-a-year-in-a-decade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Driest start to the year since 2008 for Seattle. Although the number of rainy days has been the same. This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/despite-recent-soggy-weather-its-driest-start-to-a-year-in-a-decade And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year. And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018. This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area. A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year. And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018. This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area. A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.I am hoping this seemingly change in the overall weather pattern recently will mean some better snow chances coming up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Rainfall warning in effect here. 1-3" possible by tomorrow morning. Drought! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Just about 0.05" of rain since midnight. Should be a mostly dry day. The first half of November is looking mellow and mild. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 WOUld that fuel more dateline forcing going forward?Yes, but if the off-equator SSTs are on fire like this, it might not work out in the manner you’re thinking. The defining characteristic of El Niño is an equatorward contraction of Pacific convection from 120W - dateline. This looks more like a broad/inverted WPAC exhaust pipe, with some similarity to 2014/15. Big difference this year is solar/timing of QBO flip (earlier). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years. https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/despite-recent-soggy-weather-its-driest-start-to-a-year-in-a-decadeI’ve noticed a pretty stark difference here too. The weather has more “attitude” this year compated the last several years. Goes balls to the wall, then pulls back as if contemplating something. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 In my gut, I really do think we’re going to shift away from the perpetual vortex-dominated pattern that’s been unrelenting since 2014. Of course, the objective data seems to suggest otherwise.. Who knows? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 First half of the month could end up warm and dry! Figures... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 At long last, after a stretch of higher solar wind/geomagnetic activity, the AP index has returned to lower values more typical of solar minimum. http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png November is such a crucial month in regards to geomagnetic forcing on upper atmospheric boundary conditions (it’s also a predictive precursor to SC25 amplitude at this point in the solar cycle). We want to see the AP index as low as possible for the next 2-3 years. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Pretty strong PV during the second half of October this year. From October 10th onward the vortex has had a free ride. Still thinking this will (generally) continue to be the theme until December..then I suspect we see a wave-1 style displacement event occur (likely before New Years). http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Yes, but if the off-equator SSTs are on fire like this, it might not work out in the manner you’re thinking. The defining characteristic of El Niño is an equatorward contraction of Pacific convection from 120W - dateline. This looks more like a broad/inverted WPAC exhaust pipe, with some similarity to 2014/15. Big difference this year is solar/timing of QBO flip (earlier).But what if it’s more closer to the dateline? The cfs vp forecasts are indicating that could happen in later November/ early Dec. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 But what if it’s more closer to the dateline? The cfs vp forecasts are indicating that could happen in later November/ early Dec.What are you referring to? Velocity potential? If you’re looking for the predictive value in regional long range forecasting, there’s more the tropical forcing than merely the longitude of the largest anomalies in divergence/VP. The wavenumber and the various pathways of fluxes to/from the extratropics are all important. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Impressive for a D11 ensemble mean. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Mt Hood forecast. As schizophrenic as rainy season forecasts are (yesterday it was going to be sunny next week, now it’s going to rain, apparently) I’m still excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 DB82CD3D-0BB0-43F3-9461-B0555EDAF774.jpeg Mt Hood forecast. As schizophrenic as rainy season forecasts are (yesterday it was going to be sunny next week, now it’s going to rain, apparently) I’m still excited. I assume that is for the 11,000' level. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 What are you referring to? Velocity potential? If you’re looking for the predictive value in regional long range forecasting, there’s more the tropical forcing than merely the longitude of the largest anomalies in divergence/VP. The wavenumber and the various pathways of fluxes to/from the extratropics are all important.Yes the velocity potential. I know there’s more to it but is it favoured by the end of the month? Also do you see the aleutian low coming back anytime soon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Interesting that after a low of 17 a few mornings back, that I ended up with 30 and 36. Right now my window is open. Yes we have heating system usually turned on now, so the rest of the house would not really notice. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year. And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018. This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area. A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years. Meaning? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Cooooolder? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Meaning? Seattle area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Seattle area. I'm surprised you are not trumpeting the mid/long range GFS which is dry and warm. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 I'm surprised you are not trumpeting the mid/long range GFS which is dry and warm. Been in a meeting all morning... while the rain has been absolutely pounding on the roof here. Sounds like tropical rain out there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Been in a meeting all morning... while the rain has been absolutely pounding on the roof here. Sounds like tropical rain out there. Looking at the national radar I am going to guess you are in either Nashville, St. Louis, or Columbus! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Looking at the national radar I am going to guess you are in either Nashville, St. Louis, or Columbus! At home. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Intense rainfall within the moisture plume which refuses to lift north... heavier cells kept re-forming over and over this morning out here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 ...35dbz radar returns? So heavy! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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