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November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 31 October 2018 - 06:17 PM

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A new month is upon us, and maybe the beginning of winter for the cascades. 

 

Happy Halloween!


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 00.00"
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.00" (03/20/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (12/29/2012), 8.00" (01/01/2011)
 
T'storm Days: 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#2
seattleweatherguy

Posted 31 October 2018 - 08:24 PM

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Happy Halloween and let's pray for some heavy snow for all of us this season

#3
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2018 - 09:06 PM

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Here's to an active cold season. At the very least I'm hoping to get that coldest high number a little lower in the coming weeks.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4
wx_statman

Posted 31 October 2018 - 09:33 PM

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Early November had a very robust -PNA episode last year. One of the more impressive in years. 


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#5
MossMan

Posted 31 October 2018 - 10:12 PM

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My prediction...a White Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years Day, MLK, Valentines Day, and Easter!

#6
Phil

Posted 31 October 2018 - 11:15 PM

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Looking pretty ninoish to me.


It is niño-ish, but the meridional expanse of the WPAC warm pool definitely doesn’t jive with it. That’s just a downright outrageous anomaly right there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#7
daniel1

Posted 01 November 2018 - 03:36 AM

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It is niño-ish, but the meridional expanse of the WPAC warm pool definitely doesn’t jive with it. That’s just a downright outrageous anomaly right there.

WOUld that fuel more dateline forcing going forward?

#8
Geos

Posted 01 November 2018 - 05:52 AM

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Perfect night for trick-or-treating. Rain stopped around 5 and it was dry and a little breezy and quite warm. Streets were packed with kids. Very festive. Several houses were having adult parties in the garage and driveway and a couple were handing out jello shots for the parents in addition to candy for the kids. :)

 

Just a tiny bit of drizzle here and there here. Overall just cloudy though. The mild weather brought out quite a few kids this year. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 34.15", 11/12
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 29°, 11/11

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#9
Geos

Posted 01 November 2018 - 05:55 AM

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This was November 5th at Lake Goodwin.
Currently light rain and 54.

 

Won't forget that. 

Lakemont area after the snow.

 

Attached File  20171106_085840.jpg   238.86KB   0 downloads

 

Hopefully the snow will come later in November this time around.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 34.15", 11/12
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 29°, 11/11

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#10
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:15 AM

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57 this morning... warm start to November!
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2018 temperature statistics for Portland, OR, average highs/lows (ºF) (90ºF+ days in parentheses):

 

Jan: 50.7 / 40.5

Feb: 49 / 36

Mar: 55.8 / 38.5

Apr: 62.1 / 45.3

May: 73.6 / 52.3 (1)

Jun: 76.3 / 55.2 (4)

Jul: 87.4 / 60.4 (15)

Aug: 84.4 / 60.1 (10)

Sep: 75.9 / 52.9 (1)

Oct: 66 / 47.1

 

Köppen Csa (hot-summer Mediterranean) year with 31 days 90ºF or higher (new record)

 

Rainfall for Jan-Oct is 19.35 inches (-5.56 inches from normal, normally 24.91 inches) with 69 days recording significant (0.04"/1mm+) rainfall


#11
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2018 - 06:52 AM

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Forecasts calling for 2-3” of rain for parts of Greater Vancouver today. Should be much drier over here as we see lots of shadowing from the Vancouver Island mountains with this pattern

#12
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2018 - 07:14 AM

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3/4” of rain since last night. 55 currently.
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#13
Geos

Posted 01 November 2018 - 07:15 AM

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Getting wet again.

 

ATX.N0Q.20181101.1516.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 34.15", 11/12
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 29°, 11/11

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#14
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 November 2018 - 07:34 AM

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Driest start to the year since 2008 for Seattle. Although the number of rainy days has been the same. This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.
https://komonews.com...ear-in-a-decade

#15
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Driest start to the year since 2008 for Seattle. Although the number of rainy days has been the same. This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.
https://komonews.com...ear-in-a-decade

 

 

And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year.    And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018.   This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area.

 

A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.



#16
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 November 2018 - 07:44 AM

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And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year. And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018. This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area.

A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.

I am hoping this seemingly change in the overall weather pattern recently will mean some better snow chances coming up.

#17
stuffradio

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:02 AM

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Rainfall warning in effect here. 1-3" possible by tomorrow morning. Drought!



#18
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:30 AM

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Just about 0.05" of rain since midnight. Should be a mostly dry day. The first half of November is looking mellow and mild. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#19
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:32 AM

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WOUld that fuel more dateline forcing going forward?


Yes, but if the off-equator SSTs are on fire like this, it might not work out in the manner you’re thinking.

The defining characteristic of El Niño is an equatorward contraction of Pacific convection from 120W - dateline. This looks more like a broad/inverted WPAC exhaust pipe, with some similarity to 2014/15. Big difference this year is solar/timing of QBO flip (earlier).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#20
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:41 AM

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This year has felt different in overall weather patterns than what has seemed to be the norm the last 3-4 years.
https://komonews.com...ear-in-a-decade


I’ve noticed a pretty stark difference here too. The weather has more “attitude” this year compated the last several years. Goes balls to the wall, then pulls back as if contemplating something.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#21
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:43 AM

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In my gut, I really do think we’re going to shift away from the perpetual vortex-dominated pattern that’s been unrelenting since 2014. Of course, the objective data seems to suggest otherwise..

Who knows?
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#22
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:58 AM

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First half of the month could end up warm and dry! Figures...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#23
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:10 AM

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At long last, after a stretch of higher solar wind/geomagnetic activity, the AP index has returned to lower values more typical of solar minimum.

solar.png

November is such a crucial month in regards to geomagnetic forcing on upper atmospheric boundary conditions (it’s also a predictive precursor to SC25 amplitude at this point in the solar cycle). We want to see the AP index as low as possible for the next 2-3 years.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#24
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:15 AM

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Pretty strong PV during the second half of October this year. From October 10th onward the vortex has had a free ride.

Still thinking this will (generally) continue to be the theme until December..then I suspect we see a wave-1 style displacement event occur (likely before New Years).

u_65N_10hpa.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#25
daniel1

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:26 AM

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Yes, but if the off-equator SSTs are on fire like this, it might not work out in the manner you’re thinking.

The defining characteristic of El Niño is an equatorward contraction of Pacific convection from 120W - dateline. This looks more like a broad/inverted WPAC exhaust pipe, with some similarity to 2014/15. Big difference this year is solar/timing of QBO flip (earlier).

But what if it’s more closer to the dateline? The cfs vp forecasts are indicating that could happen in later November/ early Dec.

#26
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:36 AM

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But what if it’s more closer to the dateline? The cfs vp forecasts are indicating that could happen in later November/ early Dec.


What are you referring to? Velocity potential? If you’re looking for the predictive value in regional long range forecasting, there’s more the tropical forcing than merely the longitude of the largest anomalies in divergence/VP. The wavenumber and the various pathways of fluxes to/from the extratropics are all important.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#27
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:41 AM

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Impressive for a D11 ensemble mean.

OksGYU8.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#28
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Attached File  DB82CD3D-0BB0-43F3-9461-B0555EDAF774.jpeg   321.31KB   0 downloads

Mt Hood forecast. As schizophrenic as rainy season forecasts are (yesterday it was going to be sunny next week, now it’s going to rain, apparently) I’m still excited.

2018 temperature statistics for Portland, OR, average highs/lows (ºF) (90ºF+ days in parentheses):

 

Jan: 50.7 / 40.5

Feb: 49 / 36

Mar: 55.8 / 38.5

Apr: 62.1 / 45.3

May: 73.6 / 52.3 (1)

Jun: 76.3 / 55.2 (4)

Jul: 87.4 / 60.4 (15)

Aug: 84.4 / 60.1 (10)

Sep: 75.9 / 52.9 (1)

Oct: 66 / 47.1

 

Köppen Csa (hot-summer Mediterranean) year with 31 days 90ºF or higher (new record)

 

Rainfall for Jan-Oct is 19.35 inches (-5.56 inches from normal, normally 24.91 inches) with 69 days recording significant (0.04"/1mm+) rainfall


#29
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:00 AM

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attachicon.gifDB82CD3D-0BB0-43F3-9461-B0555EDAF774.jpeg

Mt Hood forecast. As schizophrenic as rainy season forecasts are (yesterday it was going to be sunny next week, now it’s going to rain, apparently) I’m still excited.

 

I assume that is for the 11,000' level.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#30
daniel1

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:06 AM

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What are you referring to? Velocity potential? If you’re looking for the predictive value in regional long range forecasting, there’s more the tropical forcing than merely the longitude of the largest anomalies in divergence/VP. The wavenumber and the various pathways of fluxes to/from the extratropics are all important.

Yes the velocity potential. I know there’s more to it but is it favoured by the end of the month? Also do you see the aleutian low coming back anytime soon?

#31
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:08 AM

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Interesting that after a low of 17 a few mornings back, that I ended up with 30 and 36. Right now my window is open. 

 

Yes we have heating system usually turned on now, so the rest of the house would not really notice.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 00.00"
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.00" (03/20/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (12/29/2012), 8.00" (01/01/2011)
 
T'storm Days: 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#32
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:23 AM

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And even so... SEA is just barely an inch below normal for the year.    And WFO SEA is well above normal for 2018.   This year could still easily end up above normal for the entire area.

 

A good indication of how very wet its been around here for the last few years.

 

Meaning?

 

Attached File  YearPNormWA.png   102.42KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#33
stuffradio

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:25 AM

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Cooooolder?

 

Attached File  ecmwf_T850a_nwus_6.png   101.73KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png   199.36KB   0 downloads


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#34
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Meaning?

 

 

Seattle area.   



#35
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Seattle area.   

 

I'm surprised you are not trumpeting the mid/long range GFS which is dry and warm. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#36
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:36 AM

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I'm surprised you are not trumpeting the mid/long range GFS which is dry and warm. 

 

 

Been in a meeting all morning... while the rain has been absolutely pounding on the roof here.      Sounds like tropical rain out there.    



#37
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Been in a meeting all morning... while the rain has been absolutely pounding on the roof here.      Sounds like tropical rain out there.    

 

Looking at the national radar I am going to guess you are in either Nashville, St. Louis, or Columbus!


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#38
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:49 AM

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Looking at the national radar I am going to guess you are in either Nashville, St. Louis, or Columbus!

 

At home.   



#39
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:52 AM

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Intense rainfall within the moisture plume which refuses to lift north... heavier cells kept re-forming over and over this morning out here.

 

rad-11-1.png



#40
Phil

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:03 AM

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...35dbz radar returns? So heavy!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#41
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:06 AM

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Lol..35dbz radar returns. So heavy!

Heavy rain... picked up more than an inch since 9 a.m. here.

I would like to have set you in my backyard this morning and you tell me how hard it was raining.

Tropical connection to this rainfall right now. Rain drops are huge in this set up... very loud on the roof.


Just reporting what is happening... no opinions.

#42
Kayla

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Full on arctic blast knocking on the door at day 10 on the 12z ECMWF and this place is pretty ho hum about it!


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 27.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 24.4º
Coldest low: 4.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#43
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:16 AM

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Full on arctic blast knocking on the door at day 10 on the 12z ECMWF and this place is pretty ho hum about it!

 

Just saw that... would be nice if it worked out.   



#44
Esquimalt

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:18 AM

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Full on arctic blast knocking on the door at day 10 on the 12z ECMWF and this place is pretty ho hum about it!


Probably because it’ll knock but not enter.

#45
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:18 AM

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SEA NWS saying now that river flooding is possible by tomorrow.  



#46
Kayla

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:20 AM

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Probably because it’ll knock but not enter.

 

Decent blocking signal has been showing up around that timeframe for awhile now. 


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 27.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 24.4º
Coldest low: 4.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#47
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:22 AM

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Intense rainfall within the moisture plume which refuses to lift north... heavier cells kept re-forming over and over this morning out here.

 

rad-11-1.png

 

Crazy, it usually doesn't do that out there.



#48
wx_statman

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:23 AM

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-28 this morning in Arctic Village, AK. Pretty impressive for November 1st. 


  • Phil and Kayla like this

#49
Esquimalt

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:23 AM

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Decent blocking signal has been showing up around that timeframe for awhile now.


Meanwhile I thought the chances out cold while I’m out east between the 8th and 15th were high...

#50
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:24 AM

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Full on arctic blast knocking on the door at day 10 on the 12z ECMWF and this place is pretty ho hum about it!

 

Meh.







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