November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

18z looked nice and wet.

[Front Ranger]

Something is going on this year. The magnitude of these airmasses is just astounding. 

 

There have been some impressive ones that have actually verified.

 

You'll always find astounding stuff in la-la land. 

[Front Ranger]

52 and breezy here. Amazing how mild 52 feels after getting acclimated to temps in the 40s for a couple days.

 

Just imagine going from the 20s to 50s. Happens all the time here!

 

Granted, the relative humidity there can make it feel like more of a difference, as you pointed out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There have been some impressive ones that have actually verified.

 

You'll always find astounding stuff in la-la land. 

 

Yeah it was a general statement which included those. 

[Jesse]

Almost 10" of rain for Medford on this 18z run. Would be nice to see that verify.

 

Close to that up here as well.

[seattleweatherguy]

LONG TERM...Previous discussion...A cool and unsettled pattern

will prevail over the region during this period. It looks like a

more organized system may impact the area late this week. At this

time, it doesn`t look like it will be anything major. A few of the

medium range solutions were hinting that snow levels will lower

to near sea level late this weekend. Possible lowland snow? Oh no!

Wouldn`t count on this, yet, though. The models do change, quite

often.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Almost 10" of rain for Medford on this 18z run. Would be nice to see that verify.

 

Close to that up here as well.

Sounds flood worthy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles blow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

Sounds flood worthy. 

 

Not when its spread out over 17 days.

[Jesse]

Ensembles blow.

 

You've called ensembles that look much worse "very good" in the last 2-3 days.

 

Says a lot about how much expectations can shape reality.

[Jesse]

Not bad at all. I’m liking the chances for a major wet period sometime around the middle of December.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got to 60. Maybe we can get a high in the low 40s in the next couple weeks

 

Salem had a high of 43 yesterday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not bad at all. I’m liking the chances for a major wet period sometime around the middle of December.

 

F37336D5-AE04-446B-AD29-3C2AB893E5C2.png

 

I think we have a solidly cool dry period next week. Then the signal seems to be for a bit of a reset with things turning wet and fairly seasonal with potentially good mountain snows. Unless things shift dramatically I think our next opportunity for cold will come as we move toward Santa's birthday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something like this would be fantastic though. Build that ******* snow pack!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Salem had a high of 43 yesterday.

We were 51

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We were 51

 

I was at 49 above the inversion. It's been a fairly mild month for daytime highs the coolest I have been for a high is 44. This is my 8th November here and I don't think I've had a sub-freezing high during this month once. Not much snow either. Of the months November-March, November has seen the least snow, in fact up here the months rank backwards from March-November in terms of average snowfall. 

[Esquimalt]

Not bad at all. I’m liking the chances for a major wet period sometime around the middle of December.

 

F37336D5-AE04-446B-AD29-3C2AB893E5C2.png

Not really looking like an arctic blast is likely, is it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not really looking like an arctic blast is likely, is it?

 

[Jesse]

Not really looking like an arctic blast is likely, is it?

Not in the next 7-10 days at least. Beyond that it’s anyone’s game!

[wx_statman]

Strike that, -50*C @ 850mb.

 

Holy fook.

 

Yeah, that won't verify. The 850mb record over Fairbanks is something like -41, and that's for any winter month. I doubt the Yukon has ever seen -50 at that level. 

[MossMan]

Not really looking like an arctic blast is likely, is it?

I think anytime after the first few days of December is fair game!

[Bryant]

I sure enjoy all the pointless sports talk when there is a banter thread

[Jesse]

I was at 49 above the inversion. It's been a fairly mild month for daytime highs the coolest I have been for a high is 44. This is my 8th November here and I don't think I've had a sub-freezing high during this month once. Not much snow either. Of the months November-March, November has seen the least snow, in fact up here the months rank backwards from March-November in terms of average snowfall.

Not even in 2010?

[ShawniganLake]

Not really looking like an arctic blast is likely, is it?

Some type of modified airmass looks like the best case scenario. Even the best model runs have been kind of meh, for a strong Fraser outflow.

[ShawniganLake]

Not even in 2010?

I think he moved in 2011

[Timmy Supercell]

I was at 49 above the inversion. It's been a fairly mild month for daytime highs the coolest I have been for a high is 44. This is my 8th November here and I don't think I've had a sub-freezing high during this month once. Not much snow either. Of the months November-March, November has seen the least snow, in fact up here the months rank backwards from March-November in terms of average snowfall. 

 

It's quite interesting because I average more snowfall in November yet it seems like in March I can see more snowy "days" distributed either in small amounts here and there or also can fall as wet snow on several occasions in the same March. There have been a few years where November sees its entire average occur in just 1 night or over the course of a day.

 

Yeah, high temperatures here will likely end a little above average, but my lows are running below at the same time.

[Timmy Supercell]

Not even in 2010?

 

Unsure about his place in 2010 but seemed like November was considerably colder and snowier than a typical March in my area. But a lot of us in the PNW saw a pretty anomalous Nov that year, both in snow and cold.

[Tyler Mode]

Check out this map of current temperatures in the area. Note the cooler (mid 40's) air near the gorge as cool air funnels in from the east.

 

Here in Battle Ground, it's currently 55.

 

I track temperatures in Vancouver and in Battle Ground, and often high temperatures November-February are actually cooler in Vancouver.

 

[Esquimalt]

Some type of modified airmass looks like the best case scenario. Even the best model runs have been kind of meh, for a strong Fraser outflow.

Yeah i’ve Noticed. It was looking awesome there for a couple of days and now it’s meh. I found Phil’s words earlier encouraging though.

[Timmy]

I sure enjoy all the pointless sports talk when there is a banter thread

Really? because it seems like you don’t.

[El_Nina]

 

Check out this map of current temperatures in the area. Note the cooler (mid 40's) air near the gorge as cool air funnels in from the east.

 

Here in Battle Ground, it's currently 55.

 

 

I track temperatures in Vancouver and in Battle Ground, and often high temperatures November-February are actually cooler in Vancouver.

Good map to put the effect of east wind into perspective. Currently 46 here.

[Front Ranger]

I sure enjoy all the pointless sports talk when there is a banter thread

 

Christmas lights/yard decorations talk, however, belongs RIGHT here.

[Requiem]

We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).

[Esquimalt]

We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).

January 2017 was cold and mostly sunny here but February we got several different snowfalls, including one 6 inch strait effec with snow event on the 6th and a 5 inch overrunning event with about 0.05-0.10 inches of ice on top two days later. Parts of shawnigan lake were knocked out of power for a few days with power lines down everywhere due to the several hours of freezing rain.

[MossMan]

January 2017 was cold and mostly sunny here but February we got several different snowfalls, including one 6 inch strait effec with snow event on the 6th and a 5 inch overrunning event with about 0.05-0.10 inches of ice on top two days later. Parts of shawnigan lake were knocked out of power for a few days with power lines down everywhere due to the several hours of freezing rain.

Puget Sound was in an island of nothingville with epicness to the north and south. It was quite sad.

[Requiem]

Puget Sound was in an island of nothingville with epicness to the north and south. It was quite sad.

 

What about February 5-6th?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).

That was supposed to bury the central Willamette Valley but trended about 30 miles too far north at the last moment. We got mostly rain from that in Monmouth.

[Jesse]

[MossMan]

What about February 5-6th?

Forgot about that quick hitter.