Jump to content

November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Timmy Supercell

Recommended Posts

We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).

I remember seeing Mark's forecast go from 1 to 4 inches, to 1 to 6 inches, to 1 to 8 and so on...
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, that won't verify. The 850mb record over Fairbanks is something like -41, and that's for any winter month. I doubt the Yukon has ever seen -50 at that level.

Famous last words? ;)

 

Yeah, highly unlikely to verify. Tough to shut down warm advection for that long. Though I suppose it’s *theoretically* possible, given the instances of sub -45C 850mb anomalies (in Alberta during March 2017 and Labrador during February 2018).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were still weenies on the outside looking in at times even in January 1950.

Hard to imagine that. Does Fred have the forum archives for that event?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he moved in 2011

 

That is correct I moved up in late August 2011. It was very cold up here in 2010, so I just missed it by about a year. We had a heavy snowfall in November 2011, but the high was in the mid-30s. Coldest day of the event at Silver Falls in 2010 was 26/18, They also had a 32/21 day on 11/30/15, but it was 34 for a high here. 

 

It's quite interesting because I average more snowfall in November yet it seems like in March I can see more snowy "days" distributed either in small amounts here and there or also can fall as wet snow on several occasions in the same March. There have been a few years where November sees its entire average occur in just 1 night or over the course of a day.

 

Yeah, high temperatures here will likely end a little above average, but my lows are running below at the same time.

 

Well most of the snow here in March is with cold onshore flow, which would shadow you. Which explains the light amounts. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just over 1.5” here today. Should be able to get over 2” on the day. SEA somehow not even to an inch yet while everyone else is well over. I’ll have to look up the record rain for today for SEA.

Other than drips and dribbles up here we have largely been in the shadow all day!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking up some data for Madras, OR tonight. My friend just moved over to Crooked River Ranch this year and he's wanting to know what the climate is capable of over there. It sits between Madras and Redmond, but so far his obs seem closer to Madras than Redmond. Great radiational cooling. High Desert Matt, any insights? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Famous last words? ;)

 

Yeah, highly unlikely to verify. Tough to shut down warm advection for that long. Though I suppose it’s *theoretically* possible, given the instances of sub -45C 850mb anomalies (in Alberta during March 2017 and Labrador during February 2018).

 

It almost looks like that pocket of extremely cold 850's over the Yukon is terrain related. That's elevated terrain with cold valleys. The model might not be picking up true free-air 850mb conditions...more of a low level situation. Just guessing. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just over 1.5” here today. Should be able to get over 2” on the day. SEA somehow not even to an inch yet while everyone else is well over. I’ll have to look up the record rain for today for SEA.

 

 

1.34 in 2009.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It almost looks like that pocket of extremely cold 850's over the Yukon is terrain related. That's elevated terrain with cold valleys. The model might not be picking up true free-air 850mb conditions...more of a low level situation. Just guessing.

Yeah, the terrain would help build cold with a pattern like that. No wave driving to ventilate the cold south, and the terrain blocks warm advection off the Pacific while regional streamflow is easterly (under the blocking high centered over northern Siberia).

 

So the cold is just bottled up against the terrain with nowhere to go.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember seeing Mark's forecast go from 1 to 4 inches, to 1 to 6 inches, to 1 to 8 and so on...

 

The FOX12WEATHERBLOG that day was...something else. On a bad day I go there and read the comments and it cheers me right up!

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

. I wouldn’t normally expect you to be in the rain shadow with this direction of a system and your new location.

 

The rain shadow reached past Bellingham and Mt. Vernon and almost down to Everett at times today.    His new location is perfectly placed to the NE of the Olympics for shadowing in a warm conveyor belt set up from the SW.   All depending on the strength of the flow of course.   It needs to be fairly strong and it was today.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it's raining, though I have a feeling we aren't going to get the 1.2-1.5 inches predicted.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

January 1930 in Madras was a total beast. Mean temp of 12.2, and lows of -40 and -35. Incredible. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it's raining, though I have a feeling we aren't going to get the 1.2-1.5 inches predicted.

 

Predicted rainfall for portland was about 0.5-1" in most forecasts I saw. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rain tapering off for a few hours down here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ICON sure is dry after we through this frontal band.    Looks quite lovely... if only we had a good base in the mountains and the resorts were all opened.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We should have another exciting weather event discussion while we wait for models. My favorite weather event, by the way, is BY FAR January 10th-11th, 2017. 16.5 inches at my house, winds were gusty and a heavy fog as snow fell in the middle of the night in an intensity I had never seen before (at least not since 2008). What an event! Thundersnow over the metro area, snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, heavy winds in the East Metro, and training cells filled with snow. Not to forget the looks on every met's face as the snow totals kept going up and up and the storm truly impressed the naysayers (Matt Zaffino's "dusting to an inch" forecast was my favorite part). Also it was one of the few times Mark Nelsen has been wrong in my experience. This event was truly one of the most beastly winter events in the PACNW (yes, even though it was quite localized).

That was really bad on Zaffino's part. I remember the best forecast was from Steve Pierce. He mentioned that a wildcard would be if a possible deformation band set up we could get clobbered. He was the only one to mention it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You all can thank me now, I am having surgery on my back on 12/6, guarenteed goodies of the winter weather variety will occur shortly after that day while I am recovering and cannot enjoy it myself!!

I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload!

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking up some data for Madras, OR tonight. My friend just moved over to Crooked River Ranch this year and he's wanting to know what the climate is capable of over there. It sits between Madras and Redmond, but so far his obs seem closer to Madras than Redmond. Great radiational cooling. High Desert Matt, any insights?

Your friend is going to get jealous of Bend and points south. It seems they always have the snow when it's on the fringe. I think from Madras south for every 3 miles you go, the snowfall average goes up about an inch annually. He should get used to the inversions. We've already seen one where last week it was 27 most of the day in Madras with sleet and zr whereas at my house in Redmond it was 50 and partly cloudy.

 

Redmond is about the cutoff for the average inversion, Bend will get them when it's deeper obviously. Crooked River Ranch is more like Terrebonne which is only 6 or so miles north of me. I hope he likes a dry climate!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That was really bad on Zaffino's part. I remember the best forecast was from Steve Pierce. He mentioned that a wildcard would be if a possible deformation band set up we could get clobbered. He was the only one to mention it.

 

Yeah, other mets were at least going with 1-5 inches.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking up some data for Madras, OR tonight. My friend just moved over to Crooked River Ranch this year and he's wanting to know what the climate is capable of over there. It sits between Madras and Redmond, but so far his obs seem closer to Madras than Redmond. Great radiational cooling. High Desert Matt, any insights?

Sounds like he's moved to Terrebonne? Wonderful community there with beautiful properties. Your friend made a good move.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload!

I had my surgery in May! Mine was to re-attach my Achilles tendon. PT said I am now okay to jump around in the snow. Must mean something! Although they say I am getting too old now to really jump around like I used too so maybe not as much snow:(. Maybe my age is tied to global warming...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...