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November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Timmy Supercell

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Jesse said he'd pick up my homework for me and bring it to the house. Hope he's got chains!

 

I think he has an Outback... he don't need no stinkin chains!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think he has an Outback... he don't need no stinkin chains!  

 

Very true. I got an outback last spring. Love it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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They definitely have colder overnight lows at Crooked River Ranch it seems, my friend seems excited about that. He knows he'll get less snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The GFS does not seem fun so far...

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Total split flow hell.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Total split flow hell.

 

All that analysis you did on the 18Z run and then the 00Z run jumps back to a solution like the 12Z run.    :lol:

 

It happens all the time in the 5-10 day period and I don't care what the stats show... the 06Z does the same thing.   

 

Here is an example using next Wednesday: 

 

 

00Z GFS from last night:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

 

 

And then the crazy 06Z run:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_38.png

 

 

12Z run back to reality...

 

gfs_z500a_namer_37.png

 

 

18Z looks much more promising...

 

gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

 

 

And then the 00Z GFS goes back again:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_35.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still a lot of cold air on this side of the globe. Anything is in play with a cold source like that.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I think most would agree the 06z/18z duo tend to show the more extreme solutions.

 

This has been the case for a while... Hence the whole 'drunk uncle' quip.

I thought someone mention that there was going to be a 6 and 18z Euro that was going to start coming out?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeah, other mets were at least going with 1-5 inches.

Yeah, I wish more mets would go with a "worst case scenario". In some situations the worst case isn't that far off from the consensus forecast but in other situations it is. I always try to envision the worst case scenario when I look at an incoming event, always best to prepare for the worst.

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I thought someone mention that there was going to be a 6 and 18z Euro that was going to start coming out?

There is, but I think it has limited features relative to the 00Z and 12Z.  Also, few providers offer it so it's hard to find unless you have a subscription to one of the pay per view sites. 

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Yeah, I wish more mets would go with a "worst case scenario". In some situations the worst case isn't that far off from the consensus forecast but in other situations it is. I always try to envision the worst case scenario when I look at an incoming event, always best to prepare for the worst.

 

Are you saying worst case scenario for weather weenies or the general public?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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January 2017 was cold and mostly sunny here but February we got several different snowfalls, including one 6 inch strait effec with snow event on the 6th and a 5 inch overrunning event with about 0.05-0.10 inches of ice on top two days later. Parts of shawnigan lake were knocked out of power for a few days with power lines down everywhere due to the several hours of freezing rain.

Probably the most freezing rain I’ve seen or at least remember. 0.25”+ of accretion. I do remember a decent one as a kid, but there was no snow to go with that one. I remember it being in the mid 20s with heavy snow in the forecast and woke up to rain, I didn’t understand how that was even possible at the time. We often go years at a time without seeing legit freezing rain around here. We do get countless nights with temps around freezing where a brief rain shower will roll thru and turn the roads to instant skating rinks. But it’s usually too warm for rain to freeze on elevated surfaces.
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Yeah, I wish more mets would go with a "worst case scenario". In some situations the worst case isn't that far off from the consensus forecast but in other situations it is. I always try to envision the worst case scenario when I look at an incoming event, always best to prepare for the worst.

Shock jock forecasting is DEFINITELY best practice.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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52F warm night.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Up to 3 inches of rain today so far, hope it helps at least with the overall drought most of the region has been experiencing! Region of course includes, all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, all of BC, most of Montana, northern California, parts of Utah and Nevada.. oh yeah, also any other state or region that helps with whatever you need for your preferred narrative....

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Agreed. I've always looked at 87-88 as a good example of a consistently chilly Nino winter. At least in modern times...

Surprisingly cool spring for following a Niño as well, although the transition to the big La Niña of 1988-89 might have been making its presence known at that point.

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Up to 3 inches of rain today so far, hope it helps at least with the overall drought most of the region has been experiencing! Region of course includes, all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, all of BC, most of Montana, northern California, parts of Utah and Nevada.. oh yeah, also any other state or region that helps with whatever you need for your preferred narrative....

 

 

Your region is generally defined as the area around you.    For western WA... it naturally includes southern BC and northern OR and eastern WA.   

Seattle is very close to southern BC.   I don't need people in the Portland area cutting off our region because of distance from Portland or because of an international border.   I can be in southern BC in about 2 hours... it would take almost 3 hours to get to Portland.     Vancouver BC is more my region than Salem.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Your region is generally defined as the area around you. For western WA... it naturally includes southern BC and northern OR and eastern WA.

Seattle is very close to southern BC. I don't need people in the Portland area cutting off our region because of distance from Portland or because of an international border. I can be in southern BC in about 2 hours... it would take almost 3 hours to get to Portland. Vancouver BC is more my region than Salem. :)

But everywhere you stated is in "our region". To each their own I guess.

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Active weather approaching... Hopefully some of the heavier stuff reaches my area (sometimes it does).

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/2dluc11.jpg

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Tornado day in western oregon tomorrow?

 

Perhaps, will it be?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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