November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the downstream blocking verifies as-modeled (big if) then I’m betting on a few surprises out there. The location of that wavebreak is a good one to feedback upstream.

 

Like last year, this is the type of stuff that doesn’t always show up until it’s 4-5 days out. Models don’t extrapolate wavebreaks well at all.

 

We really need to boot that f*ckin Greenland vortex.

[Phil]

We really need to boot that f*ckin Greenland vortex.

Well, I think it actually will get the boot this time. At least temporarily.

 

And it comes at a good time, climatologically speaking, for the western US in a +ENSO year. So I’m more bullish now than I was before. Regardless of what the modeling shows in the clown range.

[BLI snowman]

1933-34 was also strong ENSO.

 

Moderate to strong Nina, which one would think would have been enough to cinch a good winter. That combination also existed in 1975-76, which was another dud.

[Jesse]

PDX *could* see their first high in the 40s today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX *could* see their first high in the 40s today.

 

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Sun is back out up here after a couple hours of mid-level clouds... generally in the low to mid-50s.   East wind has also died off.

 

54 here and in North Bend.

 

Some light haze here as well which I guess is smoke.   The rain tonight and tomorrow should get rid of that.

 

[Phil]

Moderate to strong Nina, which one would think would have been enough to cinch a good winter. That combination also existed in 1975-76, which was another dud.

FWIW, much like today, there was a phase shift towards a more broad/northerly ITCZ/z-cells and +NAM in the 1930s/40s vs the late 19th century. Unsurprisingly, a warming globe accompanied this phase shift.

 

Interestingly, it ended abruptly in the autumn of 1942, and most of the climate trends reversed from the mid-1940s onward into the 1970s, before things snapped back again during the autumn of 1976.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Lol. Nov 13th in portland oregon and we havent had one real storm front come through yet and there isnt one on the horizon. What a joke.

[Jesse]

Lol. Nov 13th in portland oregon and we havent had one real storm front come through yet and there isnt one on the horizon. What a joke.

Dude, it’s November 13th.

[Front Ranger]

There is a trough that swings thru for a couple days around day 8 and then it turns to this.

 

1ADC9B02-94B7-402C-B518-7D9F05EAD65F.png

 

Progressive beats suggestive.

[Front Ranger]

Getting a legit -NAO with a strong PV aloft would be quite the accomplishment. This breaker does extend to 30mb up there (which is impressive) but it’s not a top-down style event in the least.

 

Recently, even perturbed vortex regimes have failed to eliminate the +NAO. So if this happens, it’s definitely a huge swing and could suggest the 2014-2018 +NAO streak is ending.

 

Models are showing major -NAO much sooner than that map you posted.

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

Dude, it’s November 13th.

Yes. Then itll be December 13th. And we will be sitting here watching fronts stretch out.

[Phil]

Wow. Houston, TX appears to have recorded its earliest trace of snow on record today.

 

[Front Ranger]

Moderate to strong Nina, which one would think would have been enough to cinch a good winter. That combination also existed in 1975-76, which was another dud.

 

Perhaps strong Ninas aren't the best combo with low solar (though 1955-56 did alright)?

 

Neutral/weak ENSO is a different story: 2008-09, 1996-97, 1995-96, 1985-86, 1984-85, 1976-77 (a PNW dud, but with major nation-wide cold), 1964-65...going further back, the last solar cycle even close to as weak as SC 24 has been was the one leading up to and into the 1930s, and that was a very blocky decade. The solar cycle in the early 1900s to 1910s was also very quiet, and that was also a very blocky period.

 

However, the real interesting thing is that overall, the sun has been quieter this cycle than any of the ones mentioned above. You have to go all the way back to the Dalton Minimum in the 1800s to find a less active sun.

[Phil]

With the exception of Hippa Island and Baffin Island, this place has the best climate on earth.

 

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/silver-creek-live-cam

[TT-SEA]

With the exception of Hippa Island and Baffin Island, this place has the best climate on earth.

 

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/silver-creek-live-cam

 

 

I am thinking maybe Maui instead.   

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Obvious trolling is obvious.

[TT-SEA]

Palm trees and sunshine year-round? Yuck.

 

Thick fog, snow, and high winds are much more enjoyable.

 

 

Heaven on Earth!   

 

 

[Phil]

Obvious trolling is obvious.

You’re no fun.

[Phil]

Obvious trolling is obvious.

Snowing in Louisiana!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/guyschasing/status/1062336384776712193

[TT-SEA]

54 at SEA and 53 at OLM today... but only 47 at PDX!  

[Deweydog]

Tomorrow is November 14th.

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow is November 14th.

Just 24 days until the earliest sunset!

[Andrew.]

Heaven on Earth!   

 

 

 

 

I'll be there in Late January for 2 weeks, which means that's probably when we will see our big snow event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z seemed to be a step in the right direction.

[Andrew.]

Wow. Houston, TX appears to have recorded its earliest trace of snow on record today.

 

 

Wonder if it will stand, looks like temps were 39/40 degrees. Would think it would have to be fairly heavy wet snow at that temp to stick even briefly

[Andrew.]

Dropping like a rock here already this evening, down to 41.9 after a high of 49.3.

[Deweydog]

103.3 already went to 24 hour Xmas music. It's November 13th.

[Front Ranger]

103.3 already went to 24 hour Xmas music. It's November 13th.

 

Front loaded winter. 

[Deweydog]

Front loaded winter.

Seven straight negative departures at PDX...

[Jesse]

Those chickens were delicious!

[TT-SEA]

I'll be there in Late January for 2 weeks, which means that's probably when we will see our big snow event.

 

Awesome time to go there!    And spring should be arriving here when you get back.  

 

We will be in Kauai for almost 2 weeks in February.

[Front Ranger]

Those chickens were delicious!

 

You ate them as soon as they hatched? Geez.

[Kayla]

Interesting... we flew right over that yesterday and there was a clearly defined line of smoke on the north side of the fire area (well south of Oregon) and there were plumes of new smoke moving to the southwest.    

 

The smoke must be getting picked up and drawn northward once it gets higher in the atmosphere.  

 

Yeah I've been following the smoke models pretty closely since the Camp Fire began since I have family all over NorCal including Chico. They've of course had horrible air quality down there for almost a week now and I saw it getting picked up by the southerlies today. Looks like some of it could even reach here later this week. 

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/xm7a0w.png

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Will likely be much warmer tonight with the wildfire smoke.

[TT-SEA]

Will likely be much warmer tonight with the wildfire smoke.

 

That did not prove to be true in the summer.   Smoke does not seem to hold warmth at the surface.

 

The incoming system will likely provide more mixing though... it will be raining up here just after midnight.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah I've been following the smoke models pretty closely since the Camp Fire began since I have family all over NorCal including Chico. They've of course had horrible air quality down there for almost a week now and I saw it getting picked up by the southerlies today. Looks like some of it could even reach here later this week. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah... it does show it reaching your area by tomorrow.   Snow and smoke!  

 

[Jesse]

You ate them as soon as they hatched? Geez.

PDX just lays those cheap plastic Easter eggs with peeps in them anyway.