TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Weren’t we just talking about May to October? Why switch it to January mid discussion. Just pointing out that this year has not even been drier than normal here... wetter than normal for the 5th year in a row. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 The models have completely gone to hell. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Front was stalled to the west of here since yesterday... and now its racing through with some moderate rain but it will likely be ending soon. Should clear out the lingering CA smoke that was drawn northward ahead of this front. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 I am noticing the dry November has been putting a dent in those massive precip anomalies in the N. Bend area. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 This gfs run is looking much different next week. Energy is cutting off much farther west in the pacific. A total mess. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 I am noticing the dry November has been putting a dent in those massive precip anomalies in the N. Bend area. Not yet... but if this keeps up then it will definitely start to put a dent in the positive anomalies. It needs to rain a lot at this time of year just to keep up with average! November started out like gangbusters for the central and northern Cascades and foothills and NW interior... but has really quieted down. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 A total mess.A big change from 12 hrs ago though 0z Now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Hmmmmm only 384 hours away! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Hmmmmm only 384 hours away! Could be just like October... long dry period but still ends up wetter than normal up here at least. Focused heavy rain periods and distinct dry periods... my favorite kind of rainy season. There are many examples of that in history here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just pointing out that this year has not even been drier than normal here... wetter than normal for the 5th year in a row.Came off like typical goalpost shifting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Rain and wind. Had just over a quarter inch overnight. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Came off like typical goalpost shifting. Well I know more than 20 inches fell in my area from May through October... so even the dry season was not that dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Well I know more than 20 inches fell in my area from May through October... so even the dry season was not that dry. Seems like it was a little drier than normal, even for your area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Seems like it was a little drier than normal, even for your area.Maybe. It can't always be wetter than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Wowzers. Edit: These are MSLP anomalies. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Wowzers. Edit: These are MSLP anomalies. Is there some reason this map has no context...As in a date/timestamp, etc... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Is there some reason this map has no context...As in a date/timestamp, etc...If you have to ask you can't afford it. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Is there some reason this map has no context...As in a date/timestamp, etc...Copied it from twitter. You can find it on tropicaltidbits.com under global models —> GFS. Was too lazy to do it myself. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Potent little front... wind is roaring here right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Models are all over the place right now in the 8-10 day period (yes Dewey, I realize this is not super unusual). CMC is much more promising towards the end than the GFS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Models are all over the place right now in the 8-10 day period (yes Dewey, I realize this is not super unusual). CMC is much more promising towards the end than the GFS.Funny thing is, I can manage to extrapolate each solution into a PNW Arctic outbreak pattern beyond day ten. Hmmmmmm... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Still completely dry in Eugene/Springfield. Made it down to 31 last night so score another day with a sub-freezing reading. No model brings the 540 thickness line here which feels a bit unusual to have not seen it drop over us more than once yet. Have only barely had it skirt us a couple weeks ago. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 The ensembles are just awful. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 A real storm would be nice eventually. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Pretty interesting how cold shots into the middle of the CONUS keep on materializing and trending more impressive as they approach. A few days ago the sharp cold front now pegged to impact most of the Plains in a few days wasn't looking like much at all. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Funny thing is, I can manage to extrapolate each solution into a PNW Arctic outbreak pattern beyond day ten. Hmmmmmm... Without even looking at the GFS past day 10? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Without even looking at the GFS past day 10? My imagination is FAR more accurate. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 The front moving in on radar right now reminds me of something you might see in August. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Back to the usual state of affairs here with a low of just 41. Depressing to see that any action on the models is always >10 days out, and disappears with each run as it gets inside of 10 days, like a mirage. Starting to think a record dry November is well within reach. Doing some trenching on my property for an electrical conduit today, and the soil is totally dry as dust all the way down. I am grateful to have somehow managed near average precip in October. Things are not quite as dry here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Looking increasingly likely that the Seahawks game Thursday evening will indeed be dry. Another opportunity to fool the nation into thinking it's not always wet in Seattle! 12Z ECMWF is on board with a dry evening tomorrow for the game. Here is the 4-10 p.m. period: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 12Z ECMWF is on board with a dry evening tomorrow for the game. Here is the 4-10 p.m. period: Are you going to the game? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Are you going to the game?Nope. Just tracking the weather tomorrow night with Jared. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nope. Just tracking the weather tomorrow night with Jared. The players are big boyz, I am sure they will be able to handle whatever conditions they are faced with. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 The players are big boyz, I am sure they will be able to handle whatever conditions they are faced with. Did not say otherwise. We track weather here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 I imagine the models right now are what a lot of runs looked like during January 2001. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 Sunny weekend ahead per the 12Z ECMWF with offshore flow... after we get the warm front remnants out of the way on Friday. Maybe some high clouds from the north on Sunday afternoon... but overall it looks great. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 I imagine the models right now are what a lot of runs looked like during January 2001.It's November 14th. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 It's November 14th.It’s November 15th somewhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 It’s November 15th somewhereLess than 750 days until the start of the ninafied winter of 20-21. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2018 Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 That’s all?? Given your commentary over the last several months, I figured you were setting rainfall records left and right. Yeah it sounded like his location was the new Forks! Wind really whipping in South Bellevue. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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