November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

[Front Ranger]

It's November 14th.

 

I assume this will continue until PDX gets measurable snowfall and/or Trump gets impeached?

[BLI snowman]

I imagine the models right now are what a lot of runs looked like during January 2001. 

 

 

Huge terrorist attack nine months later 

[ShawniganLake]

I imagine the models right now are what a lot of runs looked like during January 2001.

That winter was okay up here. I’d give it a passing grade at least.

[Front Ranger]

Currently 30 with snow in Memphis. Crazy for mid November.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I assume this will continue until PDX gets measurable snowfall and/or Trump gets impeached?

 

Trump should probably be stepping down sometime around January 2025. Probably in the midst of an arctic blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 30 with snow in Memphis. Crazy s**t for mid November.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/meg/graphicast/image2.png?44d7fa651c36d9fc839067cc469f1b4a

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The FV3-GFS continues to be far more interesting than the operational.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a sunny Thanksgiving with no precip.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also shows a sunny Black Friday... the Apple Cup is that day as well.   

[Blizzard777]

.08, 51* and no wind south sound

Rain has stopped and seeing very slight hint of filtered blue skies above

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF shows a sunny Thanksgiving with no precip.

 

 

 

Sun is pretty much the default now, dude.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is pretty much the default now, dude.

Not here.

 

I will happily take whatever nature offers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil...PV over NE Manitoba?!

 

[BLI snowman]

Not here.

 

I will happily take whatever nature offers.

 

In Seattle and Portland, where people actually go.

[TT-SEA]

In Seattle and Portland, where people actually go.

Much better out here. More space and better scenery.

[Phil]

Phil...PV over NE Manitoba?!

 

That’s a late 19th century pattern right there.

 

If only..

[Front Ranger]

Trump should probably be stepping down sometime around January 2025. Probably in the midst of an arctic blast.

 

Almost as bullish as Phil on the polar vortex from hell! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost as bullish as Phil on the polar vortex from hell! 

 

That is my bearish outlook. Bullish would be predicting 19th century throwback winters during his 3rd and 4th terms!

[Dave]

I actually lived in Willamina in the west valley and we had all the action from that one. Foot of snow, inch of freezing rain, another foot of snow in top of that. Pretty sure Monmouth was similar in that 18 inch range being in the cold air dam. Snow line was between there and Corvallis. The south valley only had rain and didn't notice much of anything special with the whole event.

Eugene didn't get totally boned in Dec 2008. Had about 4 inches of snow with some impressive cold for a few days, including a 27 - 10 spread. It just wasn't the once in several decades setup like the northern half of state got. It was a decent storm.

[BLI snowman]

Much better out here. More space and better scenery.

 

And a dry day is apparently still a novelty, in spite of the massive number of them we've racked up in 20-droughteen. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene didn't get totally boned in Dec 2008. Had about 4 inches of snow with some impressive cold for a few days, including a 27 - 10 spread. It just wasn't the once in several decades setup like the northern half of state got. It was a decent storm.

 

It is safe to say Eugene has done much better in the past decade then the one that preceded it. 

[Deweydog]

I assume this will continue until PDX gets measurable snowfall and/or Trump gets impeached?

Time?

 

Probably. 90% of the top analogs strongly suggest this.

[stuffradio]

ECMWF seasonal wants to crash all parties.

 

[Kayla]

ECMWF seasonal wants to crash all parties.

 

Seems like a lot of money spent and waste of processor power on something anyone could draw up when it's based solely off the current ENSO state. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Phil...PV over NE Manitoba?!

 

 

Oh, that silly clown range.

[stuffradio]

Seems like a lot of money spent and waste of processor power on something anyone could draw up when it's based solely off the current ENSO state. 

It will be interesting to see what it spits out next month. It updates on the 13th of every month or something. One of the models in that suite showed an ENSO plume forecast starting to trend downard eventually.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It is safe to say Eugene has done much better in the past decade then the one that preceded it. 

 

Easily. 13-14 and 16-17 alone had plenty of action. It'll happen again...just doesn't feel like it'll be this year.

 

The 2000s had, what, 03-04 and a bit in 06-07 07-08 and 08-09? But all of that was pretty meager at least for places south of campus where I lived at that time. Probly a total of about 10-12 inches for the decade.

[Phil]

ECMWF seasonal wants to crash all parties.

 

convert_image-gorax-green-000-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-vPWlF8.png

convert_image-gorax-green-005-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Q1jNca.png

precip_djf_1819.png

precip_fma_2019.png

precip_jfm_2019.png

At least it looks good for California.

[MossMan]

Cannot wait to see my property with snow cover. Looking more and more winterish every day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In some ways this month has reminded me quite a bit of last December. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In some ways this month has reminded me quite a bit of last December.

So a snow event for PDX north for Thanksgiving is expected then.

[BLI snowman]

In some ways this month has reminded me quite a bit of last December. 

 

We actually got a good pattern late last December.

 

Nothing remotely like that in sight now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Low cloud deck and it feels like it's going to rain. But it just doesn't. Not sure what else to expect anymore. If this split flow doesn't break, we are going to have a very bad fire year.

 

But.........................

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's November 14

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z is just more of a meandering mess...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 18z is just more of a meandering mess...

Yup, druncle is passed out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We actually got a good pattern late last December.

 

Nothing remotely like that in sight now.

 

Perhaps I am remembering wrong, but in my mind 99% of it slid east and there was a tight N/S gradient which stopped at about Portland, ended up being a decent event Portland north, but was more of a low level cold situation...Maybe I am just remembering incorrectly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am moving my window of potential Dec. 1-15th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Perhaps I am remembering wrong, but in my mind 99% of it slid east and there was a tight N/S gradient which stopped at about Portland, ended up being a decent event Portland north, but was more of a low level cold situation...Maybe I am just remembering incorrectly.

 

Most of last Dec had a huge block right over us that would have been oh so beautiful 1000 miles to the west.  One day...