Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Election Day GL's/MW Storm System

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
Tom

Posted 02 November 2018 - 03:15 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

After some mid range inconsistencies, the models are now beginning to target another favorable "cutter" storm track  for our MW/GL's posters.  The month of November is opening up tremendously busy, with systems each and every other day, but the 3rd, in a series of systems is likely to pack the biggest punch.  Overnight 00z EPS actually shifted a tad SE with its ensemble members and takes the mean track right across IL/IN/MN.  00z GEFS take the mean across W IL/S WI.  Are we going to see the November Gales prevail???  Could some members see their first snowfall???  Let's discuss....

 

 

I'm encouraged to see systems this season digging into the deep southern Plains and cutting up towards the GL's putting a lot of us near the active storm track which has been setting up this Autumn.  Some of the 00z GEFS members are showing some backwash snow across the MW.  If the trends continue to show a deepening storm, I wouldn't doubt seeing more wintry precip in future runs.

Attached Files


  • jaster220 likes this

#2
Tom

Posted 02 November 2018 - 03:34 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Second Season of Severe wx is likely to continue down in the deep south as I'm sure this risk area will be heightened...

 

day48prob.gif?1541158544790



#3
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 November 2018 - 05:03 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

This is taking what would normally be a perfect track in the Winter for here, on Euro at least. Low going right over KC/St. Joe. Hopefully we can get some more moisture with this when it's down here.


  • jaster220 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#4
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2018 - 08:55 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

@ GEFS loop

 

Certainly looks like it wants to go bigly on pressure falls & geography coverage when it arrives in the UP. Will be nice to get some wind headlines and a great sign for the Nov/Jan correlation I posted on earlier.  :)


  • Niko likes this

#5
Hawkeye

Posted 02 November 2018 - 11:21 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1585 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Now the model trend is take the low a bit farther east and delay the rev-up again.  The FV3-GFS barely has any precip here and the euro just cut our precip quite a bit.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#6
someweatherdude

Posted 02 November 2018 - 11:29 AM

someweatherdude

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 57 posts
  • LocationKC

Gary Lezak mentioned that the Euro is consistent with the GFS and GFS-3 on significant snow in the KC area next week.  Does anyone happen to have that map? Thanks!


  • Clinton likes this

#7
Tom

Posted 02 November 2018 - 11:34 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Gary Lezak mentioned that the Euro is consistent with the GFS and GFS-3 on significant snow in the KC area next week. Does anyone happen to have that map? Thanks!


That’s the next storm which has been showing up on the models today following this storm. What a freakin’ pattern!
  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#8
Esquimalt

Posted 02 November 2018 - 11:40 AM

Esquimalt

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 365 posts
  • LocationEsquimalt, British Columbia (Elevation 6 Feet)

That’s the next storm which has been showing up on the models today following this storm. What a freakin’ pattern!


What are your thoughts on the Euro today Tom? It was showing what appeared to be a quick return to normal, but I didn’t see then EPS!

#9
Tom

Posted 02 November 2018 - 11:48 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

What are your thoughts on the Euro today Tom? It was showing what appeared to be a quick return to normal, but I didn’t see then EPS!


Not worried at all...
  • St Paul Storm likes this

#10
Clinton

Posted 02 November 2018 - 12:02 PM

Clinton

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

That’s the next storm which has been showing up on the models today following this storm. What a freakin’ pattern!

 

If that storm pans out, it would be more snow than I have had the last 2 years combined.


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#11
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 November 2018 - 12:37 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Farmers here had better hurry up and finish harvesting. Between the rain from this storm and the potential snow next Friday this may be the last chance for a while.


  • gabel23 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#12
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2018 - 01:11 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

@ GEFS loop

 

Certainly looks like it wants to go bigly on pressure falls & geography coverage when it arrives in the UP. Will be nice to get some wind headlines and a great sign for the Nov/Jan correlation I posted on earlier.  :)

 

This would do it..

 

Attached File  20181102 12z gFS_mslp&hPa_114.png   164.67KB   0 downloads


  • Snowshoe and St Paul Storm like this

#13
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 November 2018 - 02:41 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1756 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
2m temps basically stuck in the teens and 20s here for the foreseeable future after this storm. Time to saddle up.
  • jaster220 likes this

#14
Tom

Posted 02 November 2018 - 02:46 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

2m temps basically stuck in the teens and 20s here for the foreseeable future after this storm. Time to saddle up.


Stock up on firewood...
  • OKwx2k4 and St Paul Storm like this

#15
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2018 - 03:19 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

This would do it..

 

attachicon.gif20181102 12z gFS_mslp&hPa_114.png

 

Attached File  yikes.gif   484bytes   1 downloadsAttached File  yikes.gif   484bytes   1 downloads

 

Then Euro wants to "double-down" with yet another GL's bomb. Showing 30+ between the two systems for parts of the U.P.

 

Attached File  20181102 12z Euro for Nov09.png   163.59KB   2 downloads



#16
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 November 2018 - 05:45 PM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3544 posts

yikes.gif yikes.gif

Then Euro wants to "double-down" with yet another GL's bomb. Showing 30+ between the two systems for parts of the U.P.

20181102 12z Euro for Nov09.png


Are you ready buddy!!?? Looks like it's time for kickoff. :)
  • jaster220 likes this

#17
jaster220

Posted 02 November 2018 - 06:55 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Are you ready buddy!!?? Looks like it's time for kickoff. :)

 

I'm ready to kickoff the most impressive November of my adult life! :D

 

I wish I could plan an intercept somewhere along the Superior shoreline or Huron Mtn's.  Back in early Dec '07 I did such a chase and wasn't disappointed. It wasn't forecast to be a huge system but I did catch near blizzard conditions just across the Big Mack bridge. It's amazing how intense those winds were in the Straights area. These were actually SE winds as a WF plowed eastward into stubborn cold dome in Ontario. We got 7" in about 6 or 7 hrs iirc. Gaylord in the highlands had a solid 10" with about 14" OTG as I passed thru coming home that weekend.

 

That and my Nov '89 deer camp bliz bomb are my two early season rendezvous in NMI. That one chased me, lol, as I was in no way expecting a snowstorm, let alone a full-on blizzard. Back then, we hadn't a clue of the potential. It was 70F a couple days before across SMI. Little did I know that 0F air was lurking just north of Superior. Ma Nature decided to mix it up and the rest is legendary for those of us who experienced it firsthand.


  • Niko, Tom and OKwx2k4 like this

#18
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 November 2018 - 09:08 PM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3544 posts

I'm ready to kickoff the most impressive November of my adult life! :D



My friend, I cannot wait to read about this month as we go through it. It looks like the GFS is sorting out some November magic for me as we speak.

I'm just tickled to death to be pretty much watching 3 months of words an prognostications, forecasts and patience actually be showing up for real. I'm excited for you and for all of us!
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#19
Tom

Posted 03 November 2018 - 02:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Even though this system doesn't look like it will produce much wintry precip, I'm still very interested where this storm tracks, intensifies, begins going neg tilt, how the models handle the blocking, etc as we continue to figure out this overwhelmingly exciting pattern.  FWIW, the 00z EPS ticked SE and now the model is taking the mean SLP track thru S IL/C IN/S MI.  


  • jaster220 likes this

#20
Hawkeye

Posted 03 November 2018 - 05:18 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1585 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

This system is no longer looking like much for Iowa... just light rain and some wind.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#21
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 November 2018 - 05:21 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Yeah, looks like a light rainer for here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#22
Yerf

Posted 03 November 2018 - 05:48 AM

Yerf

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 140 posts
  • LocationKane County
Thursday/Friday system looking better

#23
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 November 2018 - 06:22 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Thursday/Friday system looking better


I'm thinking about starting a thread on that one after the 12Z runs if GFS picks it back up.
  • Tom likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#24
jaster220

Posted 03 November 2018 - 05:13 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Quieter than a morgue in here. Have we been dealt our first model "now you see it, now you don't" tease, or did we just run afoul of the marginal cold season. Haha, maybe the models forgot to check which month it was, and then suddenly spread the word that it's only first week of November! Most have tampered every single potential they were flashing yesterday - sigh.. :mellow:


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#25
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 November 2018 - 06:03 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1756 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
First and final call: a few wet snowflakes here on the backside of the low. Next.
  • jaster220 likes this

#26
Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 03:37 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

This system has been quite a severe wx threat down near the Gulf states.  Numerous storm reports and a few isolated tornadoes ripped through AL & MS.  It's to bad this system couldn't phase early enough to produce a stronger storm around here, but nonetheless, its another large scale storm system impacting the MW/GL's region as the cyclical pattern continues to show promising signs going forward.  On a side note, I like how this storm has slowed down and is pivoting across the GL's.  Nice looking radar both yesterday and today.

 

 

today_filtered.gif


  • jaster220 likes this

#27
jcwxguy

Posted 06 November 2018 - 06:41 AM

jcwxguy

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 960 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Wrong map link

#28
Tom

Posted 06 November 2018 - 06:50 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Wrong map link


It’s the right one but I noticed when you copy and paste the graphic, it will automatically update itself when it updates on the website you took it from. I should have saved the image and then uploaded.
  • jaster220 likes this

#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 November 2018 - 08:42 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1756 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Rain has flipped to snow here. Currently 35F
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#30
jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 09:33 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

991 mb's so right on target with GEM's forecast. Currently SW gusts to 36 mph in both Marshall and Jackson. Radar says this would be a LES bliz if it were winter. Hopefully this comes back later.

 

Attached File  20181106 17z MSLP and winds.gif   39.84KB   0 downloads



#31
jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 09:37 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

:lol:  "Secure your election signs..or just let 'em blow away and be done with it."

 

1115 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 /1015 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018/ ...Strong Winds Today... West winds will gust to around 35 to 40 mph through mid afternoon, with occasional gusts to 45 mph. Winds this strong may result in difficult travel for high profile vehicles, especially on north to south oriented roads. Lightweight objects may blow around if not secured. Use caution if traveling today and secure any outdoor objects. Winds will gradually subside after 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/. $$

 

 



#32
jaster220

Posted 06 November 2018 - 07:15 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Wow, another LERn streamer along 94 corridor. The low baro combined with good winds and lots of RH. This would've been a dream scenario for W Michigan. I've zero doubt many counties would've scored bliz conditions and/or warnings in winter. They would be continuing into the night or at least Storm Warnings would be. can't wait to see this re-visit later on. This is not unlike the Feb '86 system that brought 24" to Battle Creek. :D


  • Tom likes this