[bud2380]

6z RGEM

 

[CentralNebWeather]

RGEM Model 12Z  - Showing my area at 4".  Hopefully this comes true.  We'll see.

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[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

How do you see this system affecting SEMI? I think your area stands a betta snow accumulation.

 

Agree. These shoulder season events favor middle of The Mitt where the colder air can avoid the warm GL's. Still, only the NAM is painting anything note-worthy so it's a wait-n-see if it's leading the way or bluffing the other models. 

[Niko]

Agree. These shoulder season events favor middle of The Mitt where the colder air can avoid the warm GL's. Still, only the NAM is painting anything note-worthy so it's a wait-n-see if it's leading the way or bluffing the other models. 

Makes sense to me. Thanks for the info amigo.

[bud2380]

GFS is further north with the Friday clipper in Iowa than the Euro.  Similar look to them, just off on the placement.  Someone looks in line to pickup 1-3" in Iowa Friday.  Thursday night here is looking like 1/2" or less.  Unless the RGEM and NAM are right.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Latest GFS has my area of Central Nebraska from 4-6".  Wonder how much will melt on contact, that always effects snow amounts.  

[gabel23]

Latest GFS has my area of Central Nebraska from 4-6".  Wonder how much will melt on contact, that always effects snow amounts.  

Your area is looking great by all the models. I don't think there will be as much melt off as you think. Sure the ground is warm, but we have had some cold mornings lately which I think will limit the amount of melting IMO. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Your area is looking great by all the models. I don't think there will be as much melt off as you think. Sure the ground is warm, but we have had some cold mornings lately which I think will limit the amount of melting IMO. 

Good point.  How about Friday with snow cover and strong north winds, can you say January weather.  Husker game Saturday looks very cold, my son and I will need to start getting out our cold weather, Red gear.

[gabel23]

Good point.  How about Friday with snow cover and strong north winds, can you say January weather.  Husker game Saturday looks very cold, my son and I will need to start getting out our cold weather, Red gear.

Crazy cold!! This is way too early, I almost dusted off my winter coat and wore it to school today. By Friday and Saturday I expect I'll be using it by then. Have fun at the game; morning temps in the mid teen's and only rising to the low 30's nice cold game! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Crazy cold!! This is way too early, I almost dusted off my winter coat and wore it to school today. By Friday and Saturday I expect I'll be using it by then. Have fun at the game; morning temps in the mid teen's and only rising to the low 30's nice cold game! 

Yikes.  I would stay home and watch it in the comfort of the man cave, bathroom, fridge, snacks, along with comfy chair and hundreds of channels.  My son is a 7th grader and we haven't gone to a game in 2 years and he was begging to go.  I tried to tell him about the cold but you know boys that age, they don't care about cold.  

[jaster220]

The 18z GFS keeps these 3 pieces of energy separated. IF we somehow could get them phased, we'd have the b-word JB dropped last Saturday. Would prolly be similar to the Nov 1913 White Hurricane in the Lakes

 

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[jaster220]

12z NAM between h57-63 even closer to going nuclear on The Mitt. Fun to look @

 

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[jaster220]

Comparing the 12z NAM and GFS, they're really not that far apart. Main diff I'm seeing is that the GFS progresses the SLP more eastward (never a GFS bias, thus see last autumn's merge-bomb fail   ) whereas the NAM's a bit deeper and seems to show the SLP getting "held" if you will, just east of Detroit as it's captured in the upper levels allowing the vort(s) rotating in from the W/NW to catch up and deepen the entire system much further west and benefiting Michigan's chances of better dynamics in every category. I'd like Tom's comments when you get a chance. 

[jaster220]

Can see in this loop how it really slows down to a crawl for 18 hrs

 

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[Tom]

Comparing the 12z NAM and GFS, they're really not that far apart. Main diff I'm seeing is that the GFS progresses the SLP more eastward (never a GFS bias, thus see last autumn's merge-bomb fail   ) whereas the NAM's a bit deeper and seems to show the SLP getting "held" if you will, just east of Detroit as it's captured in the upper levels allowing the vort(s) rotating in from the W/NW to catch up and deepen the entire system much further west and benefiting Michigan's chances of better dynamics in every category. I'd like Tom's comments when you get a chance. 

At this point, it seems like the NAM is on its own in terms of strength.  The 12z Euro came in weaker actually and a little warmer around here.  You still look like you can score with some LES on the backside of the storm.  Let's see if these finer details can be ironed out by tomorrow.

[Esquimalt]

Comparing the 12z NAM and GFS, they're really not that far apart. Main diff I'm seeing is that the GFS progresses the SLP more eastward (never a GFS bias, thus see last autumn's merge-bomb fail   ) whereas the NAM's a bit deeper and seems to show the SLP getting "held" if you will, just east of Detroit as it's captured in the upper levels allowing the vort(s) rotating in from the W/NW to catch up and deepen the entire system much further west and benefiting Michigan's chances of better dynamics in every category. I'd like Tom's comments when you get a chance. 

Yeah NAM looking really good this morning. I think GFS is a little high with the surface temperatures.  

[TOL_Weather]

Euro is back on an island with this system, bringing heavy snow and amounts to N KS and jack s**t for here. It'll be interesting to see trends over the next few hours.

[bud2380]

Euro leaves just about everything south of Iowa Thursday night now.  However, the Friday system has a bullseye right through my back yard of .3" qpf

 

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[jaster220]

Yeah NAM looking really good this morning. I think GFS is a little high with the surface temperatures.  

 

The Mitt looking good per the NCEP map   

 

@ Niko - heads-up buddy!

 

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[Niko]

Euro leaves just about everything south of Iowa Thursday night now.  However, the Friday system has a bullseye right through my back yard of .3" qpf

 

Capture.PNG

 

The Mitt looking good per the NCEP map 

 

@ Niko - heads-up buddy!

 

20181107 12z NCEP Snowfall at h60.png

Not bad...I would definitely welcome several inches.

[jaster220]

 

1st blues over mby via futurecast. Going to be activating my winter snow totals signature me thinks

 

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[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings upping snow totals a bit.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with local amounts to 5 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south central
Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commute. Winds will be light through the event, which will limit
the threat for blowing and drifting snow.

[bud2380]

Des Moines with 1-2" in the grids for some parts on Friday.  This is for Poweshiek County

 

Friday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Windy, with a northwest wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[jaster220]

Almost all models (@ h5) arrive at a similar output Saturday morning for the GL's. Differences lie in the evolution of how EXACTLY we get there.

 

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 20181107 18z NAM h66.png   153.18KB   0 downloads

 

One way or the other, it shouldn't be the 10 day doldrums we were having around here a year ago. This has been on active month or so now.

[CentralNebWeather]

First flakes coming down here. Nice.

[TOL_Weather]

Models are turning into complete garbage for here. HRRR has heaviest snow down in Central KS. Ffs.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Fwiw, NAM's sticking to it's system evolution guns. When does it just fold it's bluff hand again? Inquiring minds want to know..

[Niko]

Not looking too impressive here in SEMI. Rain/snow mix w temps in the 30s.

[jaster220]

Some counties in W KS and NE upgraded to WSWarning.

[Tom]

d**n, CentralNeb upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning!  Congrats buddy!  Storm totals of 5-9" are impressive.

 

 

 

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
533 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

...Narrow band of heavy snow developing over part of south central
Nebraska...

NEZ072>074-082-083-082000-
/O.UPG.KGID.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-181109T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGID.WS.W.0003.181108T1133Z-181109T0000Z/
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Furnas-Harlan-
Including the cities of Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden,
Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma,
and Orleans
533 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of A snow total
of 4 to 6 inches has already fallen in a band from near
Cambridge to Arapahoe to Holdrege to Minden with another 1 to 3
inches expected today, giving a snow total of 5 to 9 inches
within this narrow band. Much less snow in the 2 to 5 inch range
is expected outside of this locally heavy band of snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Been watching the obs all night in and around the Holdrege area. CentralNEWeather is getting it pretty good. Congrats. Dry air is the upper levels is really having an effect as the snow shield is really struggling to move E.

[Grizzcoat]

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[CentralNebWeather]

d**n, CentralNeb upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning! Congrats buddy! Storm totals of 5-9" are impressive.

6 inches already, school late start. Amazing. Will get pictures after sun rises.

[Tom]

Been watching the obs all night in and around the Holdrege area. CentralNEWeather is getting it pretty good. Congrats. Dry air is the upper levels is really having an effect as the snow shield is really struggling to move E.

Indeed, he's def that weenie band across S NE...with temps in the upper 20's, it should look and feel like a winter wonderland out there.

[TOL_Weather]

6 inches already, school late start. Amazing. Will get pictures after sun rises.

Dude holy s**t that's amazing. I think we're still good for 1-2" here. What a fall it's been so far, huh?

[TOL_Weather]

Dude holy s**t that's amazing. I think we're still good for 1-2" here. What a fall it's been so far, huh?

Some parts of Lincoln may get more, but I'm personally saying 1-2" for my porch cuz looking at radar trands and where dry air is, it looks like I'm fairly disadvantaged on the SE side of town.

 

 

HRRR has the band fizzling out right as it gets here, radar isn't making it seem like that'll be the case.

[westMJim]

This is a copy my post on the November OBS topic.  

 

While I don't like to say too much before a event and to me the current temperatures here are too warm (I have 37 here at my house now) but all that said the GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting later tonight.

 

  DISCUSSION  

(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 8 2018  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO PART EVENT  
UPCOMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART IS  
THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION AS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT.  
AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT  
SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ABOVE FREEZING SKIN  
TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES,  
BUT THE COMBINATION OF SNOWY ROADS DURING RUSH HOUR AND THIS BEING  
THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY.  
 
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW BEGINS AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEEP  
MOISTURE AND LACK OF INVERSION IN NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR  
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIGOROUS SNOW BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH  
AN HOUR SNOW RATES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.  
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN  
QUICKLY AFTER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING,  
THERE IS THE GOOD CHANCE OF AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW AREA OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE  
TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME AS THERE  
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO BE AFFECTED BY THE  
F-GEN SNOWS OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.  
 

We will have to see if and how this plays out

[TOL_Weather]

Not sure what OAX was thinking by not expanding the WWA North. Radar trends overnight indicated that they should have at least considered it. Especially since the current WWA area is looking to get screwed.

[TOL_Weather]

Yeah I'm not looking at models anymore. All the 12Z runs initialized horrendously.

[Niko]

Hey Jaster buddy...I think you are under your first WWA, No?! If so, congrats...looking good for ya. I am forecasted to receive 1-2inches. Not bad. Ill take it. Afterall, its only Nov.8th.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, I see you have your first Heavy Snow wording in your grids for Friday night!  Congrats buddy...

 

[Niko]

The NAM really wants to give my area something more than 1-2inches......

[TOL_Weather]

Heavy snow has begun on the West side of Lincoln. Still just foggy here on the SE side but that should change soon. 28.0*F.

[Tom]

Heavy snow has begun on the West side of Lincoln. Still just foggy here on the SE side but that should change soon. 28.0*F.

Good luck bud and for the rest of you in SE NE! #letitsnow

[TOL_Weather]

First flakes are falling right now. Looks awesome without the wind. Radar is trending crappy but we should still get about an hour or two of decent snowfall. 28.0*F.

[bud2380]

GFS has moved the Friday clipper into SW Iowa.  Euro is the only one left keeping the track into eastern Iowa and even the Euro has shifted further SW with each run.  Might just get a 1/2" tonight and that could be about it for my area. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I measured 7-8".  This graphic is spot on me as the yellow bullseye is essentially over my house.  Had a late start, 10 AM at school.  The only reason we didn't have the entire day off was there was no wind.  Just a straight down beautiful snow.

 

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[james1976]

GFS has moved the Friday clipper into SW Iowa. Euro is the only one left keeping the track into eastern Iowa and even the Euro has shifted further SW with each run. Might just get a 1/2" tonight and that could be about it for my area.

Yeah looks dry up here. Cloudy cold and windy for sure though.

[james1976]

I measured 7-8". This graphic is spot on me as the yellow bullseye is essentially over my house. Had a late start, 10 AM at school. The only reason we didn't have the entire day off was there was no wind. Just a straight down beautiful snow.

NWS 2.png

Impressive. Nice early start to winter for you guys.

[CentralNebWeather]

Impressive. Nice early start to winter for you guys.

Thanks.  Also, our snow plow drivers in our town did a tremendous job clearing this heavy, wet snow.  We had a few kids that live in the country not come in today due to bad road conditions in rural areas but attendance from the rest of the students looks really good. Been quite a while since we have had a good amount of snow in November.  Hopefully it is a sign of the winter to come, but obviously we are way above normal and way early for our first large snow.