Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

11/8 - 11/10 Plains/GL's System

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#101
Illinois_WX

Posted 08 November 2018 - 09:23 AM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1118 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

6 inches already, school late start. Amazing. Will get pictures after sun rises.

 

Since my dude is too busy making snow angels over there, here's some pictures from the McCook, Nebraska area that my friend posted! 

 

Attached File  hidden.jpg   58.76KB   1 downloads

 

Attached File  asfawe.jpg   145.59KB   0 downloads


  • Tom, Hawkeye, james1976 and 3 others like this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#102
CentralNebWeather

Posted 08 November 2018 - 09:25 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2171 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Since my dude is too busy making snow angels over there, here's some pictures from the McCook, Nebraska area that my friend posted! 

 

attachicon.gifhidden.jpg

 

attachicon.gifasfawe.jpg

I will post some pictures later in the day.  Winter wonderland here.


  • Illinois_WX and Bryan1117 like this

#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 November 2018 - 09:51 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Down to pixie dust with about 1-1.5" of powder on the ground here. Can't complain as it is November 8. Drove to downtown while it was still heavy, and the roads were fine. Downtown did seem to get way less. Melting is already beginning at my place, which is a bit disheartening. There is one more weenie band coming which may make up for it a bit. 30.7*F.


  • Bryan1117 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#104
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 09:52 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

d**n, CentralNeb upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning!  Congrats buddy!  Storm totals of 5-9" are impressive.

 

Setting the seasonal trend? Cheers to more of this!

 

Hey Jaster buddy...I think you are under your first WWA, No?! If so, congrats...looking good for ya. I am forecasted to receive 1-2inches. Not bad. Ill take it. Afterall, its only Nov.8th. :lol:

 

Thx Niko! Yeah, I was driving into the office and Whoa! Surprised to see the WWA on the MDOT digital sign along 94. Dang if GRR isn't surprising me this early winter with a pro-active trigger pull for a change. Even down here in Jackson. Has to be one of my earliest headlines in SMI. 

 

@ Jaster, I see you have your first Heavy Snow wording in your grids for Friday night!  Congrats buddy...

 

Sneaked a peak did you? I have been super-busy this morning and haven't got there yet, lol. Thanks for the 'grats. Seems like I live in the land of (winter) enchantment since moving here. I did notice that WPC's map has the hashed snow line scary close to Marshall. Amazingly large white hatched region for our 1st storm of the new LRC

 

Attached File  20181108 WPC d2 map.gif   181.83KB   0 downloads


  • FV-Mike likes this

#105
james1976

Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:01 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4299 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Des Moines still calling for light snow tonight for most of IA. Maybe I'll score an inch yet. It hasn't warmed up at all. Still only 28°
  • jaster220 likes this

#106
bud2380

Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:20 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1985 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Euro now showing tomorrow's clipper in SW Iowa as well.  Looks like its' tonight or bust for me.  Just about every model is showing some snow here though tonight, so a dusting up to an inch looks possible.  



#107
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:12 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

 

 

A stronger burst of snow combined with powerful winds
and falling temperatures is forecasted for Friday night into
Saturday morning.

 

:)  The kind of intense stuff I like could be on the table tomorrow night. Prolly be during my ZZZZ hrs but should be interesting for so early in the season and I could be awoken by the roar of wind? 

 

Edit - NAM has it hitting mby from about 1 am til perhaps as late as 10 am. If accurate I should see some after daylight


  • Tom likes this

#108
james1976

Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:37 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4299 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Low level dry air is gonna hurt us in E IA

#109
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:43 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Low level dry air is gonna hurt us in E IA

That hurt us here too. Without it we could have gotten 3". Oh well. It's November.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#110
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:44 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Much of the snow is already gone on the grass. Surprising how fast it melted, it's 31.6*F now. It melted almost as if it were sunny and 45.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#111
GDR

Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:00 PM

GDR

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1284 posts
I don’t see much getting north of i80 in iowa

#112
Clinton

Posted 08 November 2018 - 12:40 PM

Clinton

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

Just had my first flakes of the season, about 2 inches is forecasted here.  Hope its a sign of a active winter.


  • Hawkeye, jaster220 and Bryan1117 like this

#113
james1976

Posted 08 November 2018 - 01:12 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4299 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
It's trying to get going in W IA and around Sioux land. Let's see if we can saturate the lower levels.

#114
bud2380

Posted 08 November 2018 - 02:03 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1985 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

I'd like to get at least a half inch of snow tonight.  just something to look at and watch fall would be cool.  



#115
bud2380

Posted 08 November 2018 - 02:21 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1985 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

DVN a little more bullish for eastern Iowa (which is out of their jurisdiction).  But would be nice to see.

 

Tab2FileL.png?549fc20685047889b88d171514



#116
snowstorm83

Posted 08 November 2018 - 02:35 PM

snowstorm83

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 239 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Getting some last minute action but it won't last long enough to amount to anything. The 5" in October was fun, but it would be nice if that had happened now since cold weather is following this.

#117
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 November 2018 - 02:51 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

0.5" reported at the airport. Figured they'd get less than down here. 30.9*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#118
Hawkeye

Posted 08 November 2018 - 04:21 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1585 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

I'm only expecting a dusting here, maybe a tenth or two.  I'm not going to bother waking up in the middle of the night to watch.


  • jaster220 likes this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#119
Bryan1117

Posted 08 November 2018 - 05:22 PM

Bryan1117

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 204 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

I'm only expecting a dusting here, maybe a tenth or two. I'm not going to bother waking up in the middle of the night to watch.


Didn’t get anything here in Omaha either today, the dry air won again. No big deal, this wasn’t going to be our storm either way.

#120
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 November 2018 - 05:43 PM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Didn’t get anything here in Omaha either today, the dry air won again. No big deal, this wasn’t going to be our storm either way.

You may get a dusting out of the clipper snow tomorrow morning so that'd make up for it. 

 

My friend in Chalco got mood flakes but not much more.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#121
ToastedRavs

Posted 08 November 2018 - 07:01 PM

ToastedRavs

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 447 posts
  • LocationCumming, IA
All pixie dust so far here around Des Moines so far. Only chance for accumulating snows with this first system is if the band from Clear Lake to Harlan, forms, and holds together and pushes through

#122
bud2380

Posted 08 November 2018 - 07:47 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1985 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
We have very light snow falling here in North Liberty.

#123
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:13 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Attached File  yikes.gif   484bytes   0 downloads

 

It's gonna be one helluva wild ride for The Mitt this winter if the past 3.5 wks are any indication. Absolutely wowza'd by the way things have trended stronger at game-time with several events, and now this from GRR

 

 

UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

The forecast is largely on track with not much changed in
expectations over the next 24-36 hours. No changes to headlines
will be introduced for the evening update. However, there are a
few things we are monitoring closely:


1). The potential for a north/south oriented band of heavy lake
effect snow to come ashore around the noon hour with associated
impacts. Should this occur, quite a bit more snow may fall west
of US-131 Friday than currently reflected in our forecast before
the well-advertised lake- effect snow event begins Friday
evening. Note that the latest few runs of the HRRR would be a
worst-case scenario with such a band making it through nearly our
entire area of responsibility.


2). The potential for areas of blowing snow and significantly
reduced visibilities Friday night as the lake-effect snow ramps up
and westerly winds gust upwards of 40-45 mph, especially along
the lake shore.

We will obviously be taking a closer look at the aforementioned
concerns for the 3:30 AM forecast package. Updated products will
be sent out soon.


&&

 

Dang, I'm getting 70's flash-backs! :lol:


  • Tom and OKwx2k4 like this

#124
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:21 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Expecting High-end gales to 45 kts (52 mph) on Lake Michigan, just below Storm Force winds. :)

 

Here's GRR's previous map posted early afternoon which may be updated overnight per their AFD :D

 

Attached File  20181108 GRR Snowfall.png   268.9KB   1 downloads

 

 

This is Oct 20th all over again, except in frozen version. Somebody in Allegan and Van Buren counties prolly sees bliz conditions, if only for a short period. Might have to do a local chase Friday evening..


  • Tom likes this

#125
Stacsh

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:32 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 104 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

Expecting High-end gales to 45 kts (52 mph) on Lake Michigan, just below Storm Force winds. :)

Here's GRR's previous map posted early afternoon which may be updated overnight per their AFD :D

20181108 GRR Snowfall.png


This is Oct 20th all over again, except in frozen version. Somebody in Allegan and Van Buren counties prolly sees bliz conditions, if only for a short period. Might have to do a local chase Friday evening..



#126
Stacsh

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:33 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 104 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI
UPDATE

ISSUED AT 825 PM EST THU NOV 8 2018

THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NOT MUCH CHANGED IN
EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A
FEW THINGS WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY:

1). THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO COME ASHORE AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, QUITE A BIT MORE SNOW MAY FALL WEST
OF US-131 FRIDAY THAN CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN OUR FORECAST BEFORE
THE WELL-ADVERTISED LAKE- EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINS FRIDAY
EVENING. NOTE THAT THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WOULD BE A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO WITH SUCH A BAND MAKING IT THROUGH NEARLY OUR
ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

2). THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW RAMPS UP
AND WESTERLY WINDS GUST UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.

WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONCERNS FOR THE 3:30 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE SENT OUT SOON.


Potential is there for our first snow to be quite the surprise.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#127
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:38 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

UPDATE

ISSUED AT 825 PM EST THU NOV 8 2018

THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NOT MUCH CHANGED IN
EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A
FEW THINGS WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY:

1). THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO COME ASHORE AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, QUITE A BIT MORE SNOW MAY FALL WEST
OF US-131 FRIDAY THAN CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN OUR FORECAST BEFORE
THE WELL-ADVERTISED LAKE- EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINS FRIDAY
EVENING. NOTE THAT THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WOULD BE A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO WITH SUCH A BAND MAKING IT THROUGH NEARLY OUR
ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

2). THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW RAMPS UP
AND WESTERLY WINDS GUST UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.

WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONCERNS FOR THE 3:30 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE SENT OUT SOON.


Potential is there for our first snow to be quite the surprise.

 

Yeah, and you look to be in a great spot up there. Both the HRRR and the RGEM show that line swinging in off S Lk Michigan on the nose of the arctic punch. With the lake still mild, this could be impressive, even further inland. 2m temps plummet to the upper teens by 4 am all the way to Detroit. Should be a wild one. Good luck up there!



#128
Stacsh

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:40 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 104 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

Yeah, and you look to be in a great spot up there. Both the HRRR and the RGEM show that line swinging in off S Lk Michigan on the nose of the arctic punch. With the lake still mild, this could be impressive, even further inland. 2m temps plummet to the upper teens by 4 am all the way to Detroit. Should be a wild one. Good luck up there!


Didn’t see you beat me to it lol
  • jaster220 likes this

#129
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:48 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Didn’t see you beat me to it lol

 

:lol: yep

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

The main challenge in the forecast deals with the potential impacts
from the storm system Friday into Saturday.

Models are in relative agreement in tracking and deepening a
surface low from Central Appalachians northward into Ontario
Friday into Saturday. This is an unusual track for the region.
This system will provide the region with several opportunities for
precipitation, most of which will be snow. Initially with warm
and moist air advection arriving later tonight then through the
morning commute...some snow is expected. Overall the lift is shown
to remain weak, but the moisture is forecasted to be relatively
deep, through the DGZ. So it looks like light snow will occur
that moves in just before or during the morning commute. With
surface temperatures starting the day near or just below freezing,
this is expected to support a period of slick conditions for the
morning commute, especially on elevated surfaces. If surface
temperatures end up a few degrees warmer, not much in the way of
impacts would occur. Guidance has lately been showing a stronger
band of snow over Lake MI during the morning that moves onshore
around noon. It appears that temperatures during the middle part
of the day will be above freezing...but any steadier/heavier band
of snow could lower values back down to near freezing. We will
keep the headlines going. After this band tracks eastward through
the region...a lull in the snow may occur mid to late afternoon.

The second round of snow develops most likely Friday evening. This
is when the shortwave that digs down into the area evolves into a
rather deep mid level low. Beneath this feature deep cyclonic
flow with temperatures supportive of lake enhancement suggests
widespread snow showers some of which could be heavy. Couple that
with deeper mixing and stronger wind fields not too far off the
ground and you have impacts. We may need to extend the Friday
night advisory further inland if these strong winds do draw the
snow bands into the central part of Lower MI.

 

Can't remember the last time I saw such an interesting read on the Aviation portion!

 

 

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 743 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

There is little question a significant winter storm will move
through the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday.
The first phase
will be the warm advection precipitation event. That will be from
around 09z to around 18z. For the most part this should be snow
but in the I-94 TAF sites it may be mixed with rain when the
precipitation is not moderate or greater. Once this moves out
there may be a period of drizzle or mixed flurries or drizzle.
Finally the cold air comes in by mid afternoon and that will push
a band of heavy snow showers on shore. The band will weaken as it
moves on shore but MKG and possibly GRR will see 1 to 2 hours of
heavy snow as that moves through.


Clearly this means IFR conditions across the TAF sites from
around 09z on into Saturday. There will be very strong winds
Friday evening, gusting over 35 knots so expect considerable
blowing snow on landing in GRR or MKG after 03z Saturday.


Given this will bring snow into the area expect moderate in cloud
icing tonight through Saturday morning. Also expect moderate
turbulence above 9000 ft tonight into Friday.

 

K, gotta get some sleep. Adios


  • Tom likes this

#130
jaster220

Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:52 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

@ Tom

 

NAM says to globals "follow my lead boys". I didn't have time to post it, but a loop of the GFS and NAM are now almost identical. It's some crazy fuji-wara stuff going on right over the GL's and it's just the kind of neat and exciting pattern I've been hoping for amigo!


  • Tom and james1976 like this

#131
james1976

Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:44 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4299 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Light snow falling here. Deck is getting white!

#132
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:02 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2171 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
You don’t typically see this in November. Should be a frigid day.

From NWS Hastings: ..Cold Wind Chills along with Gusty Winds and Blowing Snow Today ...

An Arctic cold front will cross the area today ushering in a
reinforcing shot of very cold air for early November. Temperatures
will remain in the teens and 20s ...and northwest winds will
increase to 20 to 30 MPH ...with gusts of 35 to 40 MPH at times.
This will result in unusually cold wind chills for November ...with
readings in the single digits over south central Nebraska ...and
in the teens over north central Kansas.

In addition ...the strong winds will result in blowing snow where
snow fell yesterday. This could result in localized slick spots on
area roads ...including Interstate 80.

Anyone venturing outside should dress for winter weather ...and
those driving should be alert for slick spots and use caution.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#133
Bryan1117

Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:29 AM

Bryan1117

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 204 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE
The “weenie band” of moderate to heavy snow with the cold front passage is lining up right over the Omaha metro this morning. Already snowing out my window with some pretty sizable flakes coming down... nice surprise after yesterday’s miss.

Looks like we will pick up 1-2 inches of snow from this quick hitting band, followed by wind gusts of up to 50 mph and falling temperatures with the front passage. Winter has arrived!
  • Tom, Hawkeye and jaster220 like this

#134
Tom

Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:29 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Wow, you guys near the shores of LM are going to get shallacked!  Very impressive to see in early November that's for sure.  Just as impressive, is the cold hitting the Plains today and the rest of us over the weekend.  It's exciting to wake up and see my first coating of snow this season.  I've had some moderate bursts but only accumulating on my deck and elevated surfaces.  I prob have about 1/2" on my deck which ain't much but still sets me in the mood.  Good luck to you guys in the Mitt!


  • Hawkeye, jaster220 and FV-Mike like this

#135
Tom

Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:31 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The “weenie band” of moderate to heavy snow with the cold front passage is lining up right over the Omaha metro this morning. Already snowing out my window with some pretty sizable flakes coming down... nice surprise after yesterday’s miss.

Looks like we will pick up 1-3 inches of snow from this quick hitting band, followed by wind gusts of up to 50 mph and falling temperatures with the front passage. Winter has arrived!

Ya, I'd say this system is the one that really kicks off Winter for many of us around the Plains/MW/GL's who haven't seen the snow yet.  The cold coming post system is darn impressive!



#136
Tom

Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:38 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Does anyone know how much KC got from this system??  Or parts of N MO???  @ Clinton, where ya at bud?

 

This will be an interesting system in future cycles....

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.gif   60.4KB   0 downloads

  • jaster220 likes this

#137
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 04:12 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Woke up to the tail end of that clipper weenie band that Bryan mentioned earlier. We picked up a dusting from that. Whoopie. Onto December. 28.0*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#138
Money

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:05 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7971 posts
1-2, inches of snow here so far

Still coming down
  • Tom likes this

#139
Clinton

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:06 AM

Clinton

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

Does anyone know how much KC got from this system??  Or parts of N MO???  @ Clinton, where ya at bud?

 

This will be an interesting system in future cycles....

 

KC got a dusting to 2 inches.  I got 4 inches at my house, I am about an hour east of KC.  It was my biggest snow in 3 years!  If we could have been 2 or 3 degrees colder it would have really piled up.  I'm excited for this system in future cycles.


  • Tom, Hawkeye, jaster220 and 1 other like this

#140
Tom

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:14 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

KC got a dusting to 2 inches.  I got 4 inches at my house, I am about an hour east of KC.  It was my biggest snow in 3 years!  If we could have been 2 or 3 degrees colder it would have really piled up.  I'm excited for this system in future cycles.

I'm glad you scored my friend!  Its going to be a fun season and your in a prime location that'll see many opportunities.  I still can't believe this is your largest snowfall in 3 years!  Crazy to think.  Hope you make it up yuuge this season.

 

Meantime, I'm getting clipped by the back edge of this system with mod snowfall.  Nice 1st snow of the season.


  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#141
Hawkeye

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:21 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1585 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

I picked up a half inch.  Looking at the radar loop, it appears much of that fell in one burst around 6am.  I was still sleeping, though.


  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#142
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:34 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2171 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
18 degrees with a wind chill of 3 at 7:30 this morning. I drove in some blowing and drifting snow on my way to school this morning. It feels and looks like January. The high may only make it into the low to mid 20’s. Insane. Had several people measure over 9 inches yesterday here, NWS had us at 8”. Either way, what a way to start.
  • Tom, Hawkeye, gabel23 and 2 others like this

#143
snowman1

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:40 AM

snowman1

    Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 30 posts
  • LocationSpring Valley, IL

Snowed overnight here in Central IL, and we woke up to a nice 2 inches covering the ground. Nothing sticking to pavement, but a pretty unique sight to see the white stuff covering a few trees with red and orange leaves underneath.


  • Tom, Hawkeye and Clinton like this

#144
westMJim

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:44 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1190 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

Wow, you guys near the shores of LM are going to get shallacked!  Very impressive to see in early November that's for sure.  Just as impressive, is the cold hitting the Plains today and the rest of us over the weekend.  It's exciting to wake up and see my first coating of snow this season.  I've had some moderate bursts but only accumulating on my deck and elevated surfaces.  I prob have about 1/2" on my deck which ain't much but still sets me in the mood.  Good luck to you guys in the Mitt!

This is from this AM discussion from GRR

 

A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,  
IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG, INVERSION  
HEIGHTS TAPPING NORTH OF 12,000 FT, AND DEEP/STRONG LOW-LEVEL LIFT  
THAT CROSSES INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SCREAM THE POTENTIAL FOR  
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR MESOLOWS. THE MAIN DETRIMENT TO SNOW  
INTENSITY WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH  
INLAND, AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WHICH  
WILL TEND TO FRACTURE SNOWFLAKES INTO "BLOWABLE DUST." ESPECIALLY  
CONSIDERING THE SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT  
(IN WHICH SNOWFALL AND WIND INTENSITIES WOULD BE ENHANCED), OUR  
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE BLOWING  
SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES/HAZARDOUS DRIVING  
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FESTIVITIES. NONETHELESS, ANOTHER 2-4"  
OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FAVORING AREAS WEST OF US-131  
AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE I-94 AND I-96 CORRIDORS.  
 
EQUALLY-IMPRESSIVE (AND NON-COINCIDENTAL) SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL PUT A SQUASH TO ALL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW  
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-7" ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 AS WELL  
AS BETWEEN THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDORS WITH 2-4" ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER,  
IT'S BEST TO FOCUS ON EXPECTED IMPACTS RATHER THAN TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS


  • Tom likes this

#145
Tom

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:46 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17293 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Snowed overnight here in Central IL, and we woke up to a nice 2 inches covering the ground. Nothing sticking to pavement, but a pretty unique sight to see the white stuff covering a few trees with red and orange leaves underneath.

I thought the same thing during my walk around the neighborhood.  Some of the maples have vibrant yellow colors that stand out quite dramatically with the freshly fallen snow.



#146
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:49 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5350 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Currently, a Winter Wonderland out there w moderate snow and approaching an 1". Even the roads are covered. Its a heavy wet snow. Temp at 32F.


  • jaster220 likes this

#147
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:55 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3608 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Another surprise weenie band of snow is coming this way. Areas North and East of here that have already received over an inch are under a WWA now, I am under a SPS. 27.1*F and brutally windy. Literally feels like January.


  • Tom likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#148
Hawkeye

Posted 09 November 2018 - 06:05 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1585 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

Another surprise weenie band of snow is coming this way. Areas North and East of here that have already received over an inch are under a WWA now, I am under a SPS. 27.1*F and brutally windy. Literally feels like January.

 

That's the band the euro had moving through my area for several runs, but was totally wrong.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#149
jaster220

Posted 09 November 2018 - 06:10 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5198 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

:D  Good winter morning to ya!  Edit- NOT a forecast you see every day, let alone early November!

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
304 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071>073-091615-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-181110T1200Z/
Mason-Lake-Oceana-Newaygo-Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Allegan-Barry-
Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Hart, Fremont,
Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Holland, Hastings,
South Haven, Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek
304 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Light snow this morning will transition to
brief heavy snow this afternoon, and then to periods of heavy
snow between midnight and 7 AM Saturday. Total snow
accumulations of 4-7 inches are expected west of US-131 and
between I-96 and I-94. Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will lead
to areas of blowing snow this afternoon and tonight. Wind gusts
may exceed 50 mph along the lake shore leading to near zero
visibility at times tonight.


* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central
Michigan.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and low
visibility. The hazardous conditions may impact the Friday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$


  • Clinton likes this

#150
james1976

Posted 09 November 2018 - 06:19 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4299 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
I picked up only a dusting but still enough to make the ground white. At work there's bout half inch. Nice lil mood snow!
  • jaster220 likes this