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11/8 - 11/10 Plains/GL's System


Tom

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Been watching the obs all night in and around the Holdrege area. CentralNEWeather is getting it pretty good. Congrats. Dry air is the upper levels is really having an effect as the snow shield is really struggling to move E.

Indeed, he's def that weenie band across S NE...with temps in the upper 20's, it should look and feel like a winter wonderland out there.

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Dude holy s**t that's amazing. I think we're still good for 1-2" here. What a fall it's been so far, huh?

Some parts of Lincoln may get more, but I'm personally saying 1-2" for my porch cuz looking at radar trands and where dry air is, it looks like I'm fairly disadvantaged on the SE side of town.

 

 

HRRR has the band fizzling out right as it gets here, radar isn't making it seem like that'll be the case.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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This is a copy my post on the November OBS topic.  

 

While I don't like to say too much before a event and to me the current temperatures here are too warm (I have 37 here at my house now) but all that said the GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting later tonight.

 

  DISCUSSION  

(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 8 2018  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO PART EVENT  
UPCOMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART IS  
THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION AS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT.  
AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT  
SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ABOVE FREEZING SKIN  
TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES,  
BUT THE COMBINATION OF SNOWY ROADS DURING RUSH HOUR AND THIS BEING  
THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY.  
 
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW BEGINS AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEEP  
MOISTURE AND LACK OF INVERSION IN NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR  
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIGOROUS SNOW BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH  
AN HOUR SNOW RATES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.  
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN  
QUICKLY AFTER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING,  
THERE IS THE GOOD CHANCE OF AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW AREA OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE  
TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME AS THERE  
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO BE AFFECTED BY THE  
F-GEN SNOWS OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.  
 

We will have to see if and how this plays out

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Hey Jaster buddy...I think you are under your first WWA, No?! If so, congrats...looking good for ya. I am forecasted to receive 1-2inches. Not bad. Ill take it. Afterall, its only Nov.8th. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The NAM really wants to give my area something more than 1-2inches...... :huh:

0B0D6ACB-7BAA-438F-9B6F-F72FD5DF1955.thu

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS has moved the Friday clipper into SW Iowa. Euro is the only one left keeping the track into eastern Iowa and even the Euro has shifted further SW with each run. Might just get a 1/2" tonight and that could be about it for my area.

Yeah looks dry up here. Cloudy cold and windy for sure though.
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I measured 7-8". This graphic is spot on me as the yellow bullseye is essentially over my house. Had a late start, 10 AM at school. The only reason we didn't have the entire day off was there was no wind. Just a straight down beautiful snow.

 

NWS 2.png

Impressive. Nice early start to winter for you guys.
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Impressive. Nice early start to winter for you guys.

Thanks.  Also, our snow plow drivers in our town did a tremendous job clearing this heavy, wet snow.  We had a few kids that live in the country not come in today due to bad road conditions in rural areas but attendance from the rest of the students looks really good. Been quite a while since we have had a good amount of snow in November.  Hopefully it is a sign of the winter to come, but obviously we are way above normal and way early for our first large snow.

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Down to pixie dust with about 1-1.5" of powder on the ground here. Can't complain as it is November 8. Drove to downtown while it was still heavy, and the roads were fine. Downtown did seem to get way less. Melting is already beginning at my place, which is a bit disheartening. There is one more weenie band coming which may make up for it a bit. 30.7*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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d**n, CentralNeb upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning!  Congrats buddy!  Storm totals of 5-9" are impressive.

 

Setting the seasonal trend? Cheers to more of this!

 

Hey Jaster buddy...I think you are under your first WWA, No?! If so, congrats...looking good for ya. I am forecasted to receive 1-2inches. Not bad. Ill take it. Afterall, its only Nov.8th. :lol:

 

Thx Niko! Yeah, I was driving into the office and Whoa! Surprised to see the WWA on the MDOT digital sign along 94. Dang if GRR isn't surprising me this early winter with a pro-active trigger pull for a change. Even down here in Jackson. Has to be one of my earliest headlines in SMI. 

 

@ Jaster, I see you have your first Heavy Snow wording in your grids for Friday night!  Congrats buddy...

 

Sneaked a peak did you? I have been super-busy this morning and haven't got there yet, lol. Thanks for the 'grats. Seems like I live in the land of (winter) enchantment since moving here. I did notice that WPC's map has the hashed snow line scary close to Marshall. Amazingly large white hatched region for our 1st storm of the new LRC

 

20181108 WPC d2 map.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A stronger burst of snow combined with powerful winds

and falling temperatures is forecasted for Friday night into

Saturday morning.

 

:)  The kind of intense stuff I like could be on the table tomorrow night. Prolly be during my ZZZZ hrs but should be interesting for so early in the season and I could be awoken by the roar of wind? 

 

Edit - NAM has it hitting mby from about 1 am til perhaps as late as 10 am. If accurate I should see some after daylight

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Getting some last minute action but it won't last long enough to amount to anything. The 5" in October was fun, but it would be nice if that had happened now since cold weather is following this.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I'm only expecting a dusting here, maybe a tenth or two.  I'm not going to bother waking up in the middle of the night to watch.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Didn’t get anything here in Omaha either today, the dry air won again. No big deal, this wasn’t going to be our storm either way.

You may get a dusting out of the clipper snow tomorrow morning so that'd make up for it. 

 

My friend in Chalco got mood flakes but not much more.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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