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11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System

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#1
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:27 AM

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It's been mostly me posting about this topic, but all models are on board for a 1-3" type system to come through to start off our weekend.  Here's the latest GFS.  

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#2
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:49 AM

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Canadian continues to be stronger and linger the snow longer.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#3
james1976

Posted 14 November 2018 - 09:58 AM

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How was last night's Euro?
Glad you started a thread. Small system but this early in the season its exciting and encouraging moving forward.
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#4
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 November 2018 - 10:17 AM

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NAM and GFS pretty lame around here for this clipper.  Will be interesting to see the Euro this afternoon.



#5
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 11:01 AM

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Today’s Euro

Attached File  48BCCDAA-E468-4524-9D99-0BE2AB9B146F.png   420.14KB   0 downloads
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#6
james1976

Posted 14 November 2018 - 11:51 AM

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Yeah prolly 1-3 event for some of us

#7
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 November 2018 - 12:40 PM

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If Lincoln even gets measurable snow out of this I'll be surprised. This is a rogue run for the Euro as every previous run of every model (besides GEM) has had dry air winning out. 00Z Euro wasn't trash but has the heavier stuff farther South.


2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#8
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 November 2018 - 01:19 PM

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If Lincoln even gets measurable snow out of this I'll be surprised. This is a rogue run for the Euro as every previous run of every model (besides GEM) has had dry air winning out. 00Z Euro wasn't trash but has the heavier stuff farther South.

Euro shows the better hit south of I-80.  Looks like a general 1-3".  Not many other models showing this much around my part of Nebraska.  Who knows?



#9
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 01:25 PM

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NAM continues to be the furthest north.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#10
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 November 2018 - 01:29 PM

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18Z NAM basically splits into 2 pieces over Nebraska and Iowa and goes Northeast and Southwest through Colorado.



#11
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 November 2018 - 02:26 PM

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18Z NAM basically splits into 2 pieces over Nebraska and Iowa and goes Northeast and Southwest through Colorado.

That's been both NAM and GFS in a nutshell the past day or two.


2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#12
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 02:28 PM

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GFS also further east than the Euro, but further south than the NAM.  Still has the heaviest qpf in central Iowa, but there is some rain/snow mix going on limiting accums.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#13
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 03:09 PM

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18z Canadian

 

SN_000-084_0000.gif



#14
Niko

Posted 14 November 2018 - 03:30 PM

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NAM continues to be the furthest north.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Thats 4"+ for my area. l'll take it.



#15
GDR

Posted 14 November 2018 - 04:02 PM

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The Canadian is smoking too much of something
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#16
gabel23

Posted 14 November 2018 - 04:07 PM

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The Canadian is smoking too much of something

Well it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me! 


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#17
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2018 - 04:33 PM

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Well it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me!


LOL

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#18
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 07:16 PM

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NAM is still hanging north.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#19
bud2380

Posted 14 November 2018 - 07:17 PM

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3K NAM even further north.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#20
Grizzcoat

Posted 14 November 2018 - 07:45 PM

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GFS South.Attached File  USA_ASNOWI24_sfc_063.gif   40.24KB   1 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#21
Grizzcoat

Posted 14 November 2018 - 07:52 PM

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Attached File  snku_024h.us_mw.png   302.99KB   2 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#22
GDR

Posted 14 November 2018 - 07:56 PM

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Canadian staying the course.

#23
Hawkeye

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:00 PM

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The NAM seems to be on its own.

 

The timing looks to be mostly before sunrise, so yet another night snowfall.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#24
Grizzcoat

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:02 PM

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Canadian staying the course.

Attached File  gem_asnow24_ncus_9.png   125.9KB   1 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#25
Madtown

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:19 PM

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Suppressed in Nov. Good thing I got this to play with in the cold this year!

Attached Files


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#26
hlcater

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:39 PM

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Looks like a 1-3" event in the central axis. Given its the first decent snow, wouldn't be surprised to see WWA if trends continue.


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#27
Grizzcoat

Posted 14 November 2018 - 08:51 PM

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Ukie is similar to the NAM, maybe even a touch N.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#28
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 November 2018 - 11:07 PM

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Well it is legal there now so it wouldn't surprise me!


Well, as Cross-Canadian Ragweed would say, "Smoke it if you got it". :lol: :lol: Too funny.

#29
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 November 2018 - 11:08 PM

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Suppressed in Nov. Good thing I got this to play with in the cold this year!


That's pretty neat!

#30
Grizzcoat

Posted 15 November 2018 - 02:06 AM

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The S trend with 00Z GFS/CMC seems now to be an outlier compared to recent 06Z runs. The NAM is hot right now inside 72 hours. It's only Mid-NOV but has/will have snowed appreciably (1-2"+) in all quadrants  outside Central IA in the last 10 days. Not a good signal  ( for C.IA) as I do think this pattern is going to repeat itself throughout the winter.  


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#31
GDR

Posted 15 November 2018 - 03:05 AM

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Looks like gfs is Agreeing with a nam. Swing and miss for central ia. Looks like the cubs in the playoffs!

#32
james1976

Posted 15 November 2018 - 06:18 AM

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DMX leaning closer to GFS/Euro with 2-3" in N IA and borderline headlines. Although the AFD came out before the 6z GFS which has trended north. Regardless...next week looks above normal and dry so it will melt immediately.

#33
hlcater

Posted 15 November 2018 - 06:44 AM

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DMX leaning closer to GFS/Euro with 2-3" in N IA and borderline headlines. Although the AFD came out before the 6z GFS which has trended north. Regardless...next week looks above normal and dry so it will melt immediately.


As it should in November lol. Anyways, I’ve got 2” in my point in Hiawatha here. Sounds reasonable based on recent guidance. NAM is still way north and stronger however.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#34
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2018 - 07:06 AM

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FV3 treats SMI best of the bunch. Others mostly miss or precip fades due to whatever? Thermals, or just a weakening system, Idk


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#35
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 07:31 AM

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NAM still much further north than other models.  The Euro shifted further east and slightly north overnight, but just seems to handle the system differently.  The Euro looks like the snow sags south through the day Saturday where the NAM moves more west to east.  Still pretty significant differences on placement here.  The NAM handled the last system a week ago pretty well though, the Euro was off base, so I'm not ready to discount the NAM.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#36
GDR

Posted 15 November 2018 - 08:03 AM

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Gfs way weaker and more in line with nam now

#37
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 08:14 AM

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GFS has the heaviest QPF still into parts of central IA, but surface temps once again limiting accumulations there. 

 

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#38
GDR

Posted 15 November 2018 - 09:02 AM

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The nam has been rock solid so far within 72 hrs
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#39
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Canadian shifting towards the NAM.  If the NAM ends up doing good this winter, it's going to be throw me off completely. I'm so used to just immediately discounting it.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#40
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 09:34 AM

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UK actually moved a tick south from overnight, but it was maybe even further north than the NAM last night.

 

PA_000-072_0000.gif


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#41
james1976

Posted 15 November 2018 - 10:26 AM

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I'm kinda wondering if northeast IA will be the bullseye. Wouldn't be surprised if NAM comes south a bit. It's mostly a nighttime event imby so that may help with accumulations. If I score a couple inches I'll be tickled.

#42
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 10:26 AM

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Euro shifted north, but not like the NAM.  Has the heaviest precip along Highway 20 in Iowa from Waterloo to DBQ.  



#43
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 10:28 AM

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South end of the storm on the Euro just barely clips the I80 corridor now, so fairly significant jump on the Euro from previous runs.  We're getting pretty close to the event at this point, so outside of some wobbling I'd guess that northern Iowa and southern MN/WI are in line for the best shot of 2"+


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#44
Tom

Posted 15 November 2018 - 10:31 AM

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12z Euro...shifted north from 00z...a little more stronger than previous runs across the Dakotas which may translate into a better snowfall in future runs around these parts.  


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#45
james1976

Posted 15 November 2018 - 11:09 AM

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12z Euro...shifted north from 00z...a little more stronger than previous runs across the Dakotas which may translate into a better snowfall in future runs around these parts.

Nice bullseye for me!
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#46
Tom

Posted 15 November 2018 - 01:03 PM

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00z EPS showing right about the same as the Euro Op run...bullish across the Dakotas and a stripe of .10-.25 qpf across S MN/N IA into N IL/S WI.



#47
GDR

Posted 15 November 2018 - 01:35 PM

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Icon with a nice split in iowa

#48
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 01:36 PM

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NAM has been very consistent, and remains well north of most other models.  18z GFS is running now. 



#49
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 02:39 PM

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GFS north, actually has heavy QPF right over my area but unfortunately has it as rain.  RGEM is way north just like the NAM.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#50
hlcater

Posted 15 November 2018 - 02:41 PM

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Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84.
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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn