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11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System

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#51
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 02:42 PM

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From ARX

 

 

Tab2FileL.png?668ff417749cdaf2808737c911


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#52
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 02:43 PM

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Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84.

 

Yep, NAM has been schooling the Euro lately, at least with the systems near our area.  


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#53
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 02:53 PM

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From DVN

 

 

Tab2FileL.png?a0b83ce6d99d3040d5073a638a



#54
james1976

Posted 15 November 2018 - 03:19 PM

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Yuck. Good score for the NAM though

#55
GDR

Posted 15 November 2018 - 03:21 PM

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I think flurries to a dusting for most of Iowa at best

#56
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2018 - 04:27 PM

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Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84.


NAM's on fire! Has nailed last 3 events here. Thought it was maybe doing so cuz S Stream systems, but looks like it's doing as well with the N Stream system. Be nice to have a go-to model this winter for a change.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#57
Niko

Posted 15 November 2018 - 04:29 PM

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This Winter I will be focusing on the NAM. It has been doing great.


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#58
Tom

Posted 15 November 2018 - 06:12 PM

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00z NAM is juiced and still holding north with S MN/NE IA/S WI in the jack zone.
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#59
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 06:22 PM

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NAM came south a bit on the southern end of the snow anyways.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#60
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2018 - 06:26 PM

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Nice to be tracking storms, isn't it? Beats just watching the LES belts get buried circa Nov of '14 and the other cold Nov's past
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#61
Tom

Posted 15 November 2018 - 06:30 PM

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Nice to be tracking storms, isn't it? Beats just watching the LES belts get buried circa Nov of '14 and the other cold Nov's past


Indeed, plus this clipper wasn’t showing up to be much of a system and now it’s trending better.
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#62
james1976

Posted 15 November 2018 - 07:08 PM

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0z NAM throwing a couple inches at me. Ill take it. Gonna be interesting to see if GFS and Euro go further north or stay the course. The fun of tracking storms! Tis the season!


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#63
Madtown

Posted 15 November 2018 - 07:27 PM

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wow 4" here! keep er moving NAM
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#64
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2018 - 07:51 PM

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GFS

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#65
james1976

Posted 15 November 2018 - 07:55 PM

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GFS not as robust but pretty much same track as NAM.



#66
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2018 - 08:20 PM

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Looks like it runs out of cold air for far SMI, thus the swath heading right for mby basically vanishes. Not going to be greedy, but a slightly improved temp regime could be a last-minute game changer over this way

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#67
GDR

Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:55 AM

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Canadian throwing a bone at the end of the run for our Nebraska peeps
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#68
Tom

Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:43 AM

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00z Euro/EPS pretty much stayed the same and has S MN/N IA/N IL/S WI in the band of accumulating snow.  Looks like a 2-3" event for S MN and parts of N IA, 1-2 in S WI/N IL.

 

06z NAM shifted south and mirrors the Euro's snow band but a little more juice in MN/IA....

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_54.png



#69
Tom

Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:44 AM

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ORD is already the 3rd snowiest November since record keeping so this system may be just another stat padder around here.  Need to surpass 6" for the month to surpass the #1 spot.


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#70
Tom

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:05 AM

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LaCrosse issued this graphic...

 

Tab2FileL.png?e4f4af32f5544e8c733552fc69


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#71
Money

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:10 AM

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Where has gosaints been?

#72
Tom

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:12 AM

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Where has gosaints been?

No clue...



#73
Clinton

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:56 AM

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Indeed, plus this clipper wasn’t showing up to be much of a system and now it’s trending better.

 

That has been the trend with systems all year, great change from last year.


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#74
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:32 AM

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6z RGEM also with a late south trend.  It's looking like an inch or less for my area, in fact could get some rain.  Best case scenario is I get a brief period of moderate to heavy snow at the tail end of the storm.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#75
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:33 AM

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HRRR 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#76
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:36 AM

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Looks like we have a lil shift back south? Digging the trends. That 12km NAM has a 6" jackpot on my doorstep. I dont expect to see that but the trends are nice.
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#77
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:40 AM

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Advisories should expand south with PM AFD's if the south trend holds.

#78
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:00 AM

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The 12Z - 12km NAM has the western piece of the clipper coming over my area with what looks like a 1-3" hit.  Other models have showed that like the Euro and CMC.  However, it looks like a pretty sharp cut off over Central Nebraska with not much at all east of Kearney.  Will be interesting to watch.



#79
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:31 AM

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12Z RGEM is also showing this western part of the clipper with a decent 2-3" snow band across southern Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Missouri,


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#80
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:41 AM

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12z GFS is south.  I may end up with an inch or two from this.  I hate that it's from midnight to sunrise, though.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#81
Clinton

Posted 16 November 2018 - 07:54 AM

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12Z RGEM is also showing this western part of the clipper with a decent 2-3" snow band across southern Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Missouri,

 

I feel like this has a good chance to pan out for you.  These types of systems have been over producing this season.



#82
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:07 AM

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12z GFS looks like a dead on hit for me. Does anyone have a snowfall map? Thanks!

#83
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:12 AM

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12z GFS looks like a dead on hit for me. Does anyone have a snowfall map? Thanks!

12Z GFS   

Attached File  GFS.png   156.24KB   0 downloads



#84
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:14 AM

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12Z GEM

 

Attached File  GEM.png   137.36KB   0 downloads

 

 


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#85
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:15 AM

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I see the nws is pretty unexcited about this system for anyone outside of northeast Iowa.  DVN has <1" south of Waterloo to Dubuque.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#86
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:18 AM

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I see the nws is pretty unexcited about this system for anyone outside of northeast Iowa. DVN has <1" south of Waterloo to Dubuque.

That may have been based off 00Z runs
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#87
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:20 AM

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I would be way excited if I land a WWA and end up with 3".
DMX says 8:1 ratios at onset transitioning to 12-15:1 as the CAA moves in.
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#88
hlcater

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:55 AM

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Mighta been too quick to credit the NAM lol. Getting the trophy yanked away from it at FH18.


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#89
Tony

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:08 AM

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LES might be a possibility on this side of the lake with this clipper. Something to keep an eye on for some additional flakes on Saturday.



#90
hlcater

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:09 AM

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No clue...

I've seen him lurking on AmWx threads from time to time


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#91
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:11 AM

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La Crosse biting on the south trend. Added some counties and going with 2-4" iso 5.
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#92
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:14 AM

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Wow, quite the SW trend this morning from the models.  Canadian and GFS are giving me some reason for optimism.



#93
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:14 AM

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RGEM

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#94
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:17 AM

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new GFS

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#95
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:25 AM

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All models are showing a lil more moisture too. Good trends.

#96
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Liking where the snow is currently at on radar in the Dakotas.

#97
hlcater

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:31 AM

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HRRR has a bit of a convective look to it. Especially in the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves, could be some heavier rates in there.

 

refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#98
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:36 AM

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I might be up late tonight enjoying this system!
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#99
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:37 AM

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Warnings flying for a few areas in N Dakota. Last minute surprise on the way? That HRRR looks interesting.

#100
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:49 AM

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Nice to see some of you peeps west of me excited to track. Enjoy!  :)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."