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11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System


bud2380

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South end of the storm on the Euro just barely clips the I80 corridor now, so fairly significant jump on the Euro from previous runs.  We're getting pretty close to the event at this point, so outside of some wobbling I'd guess that northern Iowa and southern MN/WI are in line for the best shot of 2"+

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Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84.

NAM's on fire! Has nailed last 3 events here. Thought it was maybe doing so cuz S Stream systems, but looks like it's doing as well with the N Stream system. Be nice to have a go-to model this winter for a change.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This Winter I will be focusing on the NAM. It has been doing great.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice to be tracking storms, isn't it? Beats just watching the LES belts get buried circa Nov of '14 and the other cold Nov's past

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like it runs out of cold air for far SMI, thus the swath heading right for mby basically vanishes. Not going to be greedy, but a slightly improved temp regime could be a last-minute game changer over this way

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z Euro/EPS pretty much stayed the same and has S MN/N IA/N IL/S WI in the band of accumulating snow.  Looks like a 2-3" event for S MN and parts of N IA, 1-2 in S WI/N IL.

 

06z NAM shifted south and mirrors the Euro's snow band but a little more juice in MN/IA....

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_54.png

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6z RGEM also with a late south trend.  It's looking like an inch or less for my area, in fact could get some rain.  Best case scenario is I get a brief period of moderate to heavy snow at the tail end of the storm.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018111606/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The 12Z - 12km NAM has the western piece of the clipper coming over my area with what looks like a 1-3" hit.  Other models have showed that like the Euro and CMC.  However, it looks like a pretty sharp cut off over Central Nebraska with not much at all east of Kearney.  Will be interesting to watch.

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12z GFS is south.  I may end up with an inch or two from this.  I hate that it's from midnight to sunrise, though.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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