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11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System

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#101
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:10 AM

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Euro also shifted further SW.  



#102
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:12 AM

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Total QPF

 

Attached File  Capture.PNG   151.75KB   3 downloads


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#103
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:15 AM

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I expect DMX and DVN to be issuing advisories anytime now since the Euro is out and has the SW trend as well.

#104
FarmerRick

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:18 AM

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Total QPF

 

attachicon.gifCapture.PNG

 

 

Which model is that?



#105
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Which model is that?

Euro



#106
Madtown

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:23 AM

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wow mkx gives me a wwa!
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#107
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:27 AM

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Yeah, it's getting more interesting for the CR area.  The HRRR is showing some pretty good snow rates from 2-5am.


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#108
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Just stepped outside at work. The air has that dense feeling and has that snow scent to it. It's very calm and the clouds are thick. Always love that anticipation right before a storm moves in.
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#109
Tom

Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:33 AM

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12z EPS pretty much has a bulls-eye just NE of DSM into the northern/eastern part of IA.  In line with what the op run was showing that Bud posted.  Lighter precip as you head farther east into S WI/N IL but a general 1-2", maybe 2.5" in a few spots.


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#110
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:33 AM

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18z HRRR coming in pretty good for Cedar Rapids.  3.1" by 6am.  Showing 1/2" per hour rates in the early AM hours.


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#111
Tom

Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Somebody in IA is going to cash in close to 5-6" if that meso-scale banding can set up just right.  Is an IA magnet gonna be a theme for a change??


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#112
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:46 AM

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18z HRRR coming in pretty good for Cedar Rapids. 3.1" by 6am. Showing 1/2" per hour rates in the early AM hours.

What's it showing up this way Bud?
I wonder if someone sees some convection

#113
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:58 AM

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Annnnnnnd the sun is out lol.

#114
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:15 PM

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Total QPF

 

attachicon.gifCapture.PNG

 

Need to post the "qpf as SNOW" map with this being a mixed P-type scenario. Some of that may be non-snow


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#115
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:18 PM

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18z HRRR

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#116
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:26 PM

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DVN is expanding the advisory, but only down to Waterloo/Dubuque.  They must be skeptical of the farther south snow placement.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#117
BMT

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:43 PM

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Its strange there is no advisory for CR... Point forecast in CR is now the same as Waterloo. (2 inches)  btw... long time reader first time poster.  i used to hand around the schnack blog with a few familiar names on this board.  Cheers to a good Winter


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#118
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Thanks Bud.
Boom! I'm now in an advisory for 2-4".
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#119
hlcater

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:50 PM

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Yea I’m expecting 2-3” on the north side of CR. Some models(HRRR/RAP) take us closer to 4”, but I don’t necessarily buy that.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#120
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:53 PM

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DMX updated their snow map

 

Tab2FileL.png?c836d7e0408b7f010c15b04131



#121
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 12:57 PM

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Snow already breaking out north central and NW IA.

#122
hlcater

Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:01 PM

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Snow already breaking out north central and NW IA.

Stout EML per HRRR soundings in N IA. For now, it’s probably virga and rain. Diurnal cycle and evaporative cooling should moisten that EML quickly as well as cool the column below freezing in the process yielding snow by the time precip begins reaching the ground.

Attached Files


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#123
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:26 PM

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Welcome, BMT!  I wish the guy from southwest Johnson county would join us as well.

 

Dang... the latest HRRR is super juiced, has a 0.50" strip through CR.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#124
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:40 PM

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18z GFS continues the southward sag.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#125
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 01:49 PM

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I’m glad I’m back in the game down here. Didn’t look great 24 hours ago.

#126
BMT

Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:00 PM

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Thanks Hawkeye.. Yes the trends are definitely our friend.  I'm just hoping for an inch or two...  anything else is bonus.  



#127
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:09 PM

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Attached File  snku_acc.us_mw.png   321.8KB   0 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#128
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:02 PM

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The south trend can stop now!! Lol😂

#129
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:03 PM

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Doing some last minute leaf and stick burning. Its awesome out here with the storm moving in and the clouds getting thicker. Perfect Friday ☺
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#130
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:46 PM

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Two local mets are keeping the better snow along and north of Waterloo-Dubuque.  One of them still has Cedar Rapids in the T-1" band.  The other, Terry Swails, has the good band a little farther south, with 2-4 reaching down to near CR.  He said given the latest model data, he would extend the advisory farther south if he was in charge.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#131
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:55 PM

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Heavy snow band up north is gonna hit S MN. I'm expecting development to my west which will hit much of IA. Also the snow in S Dakota should pivot thru IA. The pivot zone is always crucial with these clippers.

#132
Hawkeye

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:11 PM

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The 20z HRRR had a 0.50" strip through CR.  However, the last three runs have dried out a fair amount.  The latest is down to about 0.30".


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#133
GDR

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:20 PM

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Yeah the hrrr is drying up fast. Not a good sign!

#134
GDR

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:38 PM

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The 23z is drier also

#135
Madtown

Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:49 PM

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still in the 2-4 with amounts up to 5. MkX all in baby!

#136
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 05:21 PM

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Looks like I'm gonna get split by the 2 heavier bands. Not good radar trends right now.

#137
hlcater

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:16 PM

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One of the reasons the HRRR has cut back on precip totals is because it is underestimating the strength of low level dry air — as usual.
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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#138
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:19 PM

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Looks like I80 corridor is gonna get nailed. Grizzcoat...Hawkeye...and Bud might Jack with this one.
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#139
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:25 PM

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Looks like I80 corridor is gonna get nailed. Grizzcoat...Hawkeye...and Bud might Jack with this one.

Temps are going to be an issue I believe. Even with evap cooling ; hope I'am wrong but I think rain wins out here along I-80.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#140
bud2380

Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:49 PM

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Winter weather advisories issued for I80 on north in eastern Iowa.

#141
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:03 PM

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Snowing finally! Dusting so far. Not too excited with radar trends though. You guys are looking good down by Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Good luck to everyone!

#142
Madtown

Posted 16 November 2018 - 08:03 PM

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looks like a miss here...oh well

#143
gabel23

Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:35 PM

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An interesting development around our area. It now appears the drive home from the husker game tomorrow might be a bit dicey. Models are painting a possible narrow band of snow setting up along interstate 80. I’m hoping I luck out with this one as I missed out on the past couple of snows in our area. I’m heading to the husker game in the morning; its going to be a cold one that’s for sure!


a Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1012 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Updated to increase snowfall chances and amounts Saturday
afternoon and evening further north along I-80 corridor given 00Z
HRRR and NAM northward shift. There could be a narrow band of 1-2
inches of snowfall maybe even slightly higher across south
central Nebraska.
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#144
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:02 PM

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I'd like for there to be snow during the game. It's been a long time since we've had a snow game. 2007 I think?
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#145
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 10:36 PM

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Even though I haven't been under the higher DBZ with this system it's still been snowing consistently here and im now at 1.3". And a ways to go according to the radar! Temp has also fallen to 29. Was 32 when precip started.



#146
james1976

Posted 16 November 2018 - 11:59 PM

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Just hit 2 inches! Coming down pretty hard now.


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#147
james1976

Posted 17 November 2018 - 01:23 AM

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Coming down hard. Big flakes now. Just measured 2.7" !


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#148
Tom

Posted 17 November 2018 - 03:13 AM

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Snow has started here with a coating so far...


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#149
Tom

Posted 17 November 2018 - 03:58 AM

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Took a look at the radar loop and it seems like CR/Iowa City and locations nearby have been getting hit pretty good.  @Hawkeye, how's the scene out by you?



#150
Tom

Posted 17 November 2018 - 04:20 AM

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Latest guidance is suggesting an interesting band of accumulating snow across S/SE NE/N KS/N MO/....

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

 

 

HRRR seeing it also...@LNK, you may score a hit from this one....

 

hrrr_asnow_ncus_18.png