11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System

[Clinton]

12Z RGEM is also showing this western part of the clipper with a decent 2-3" snow band across southern Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Missouri,

 

I feel like this has a good chance to pan out for you.  These types of systems have been over producing this season.

[james1976]

12z GFS looks like a dead on hit for me. Does anyone have a snowfall map? Thanks!

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS looks like a dead on hit for me. Does anyone have a snowfall map? Thanks!

12Z GFS   

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GEM

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I see the nws is pretty unexcited about this system for anyone outside of northeast Iowa.  DVN has

[james1976]

I see the nws is pretty unexcited about this system for anyone outside of northeast Iowa. DVN has

That may have been based off 00Z runs

[james1976]

I would be way excited if I land a WWA and end up with 3".

DMX says 8:1 ratios at onset transitioning to 12-15:1 as the CAA moves in.

[hlcater]

Mighta been too quick to credit the NAM lol. Getting the trophy yanked away from it at FH18.

[Tony]

LES might be a possibility on this side of the lake with this clipper. Something to keep an eye on for some additional flakes on Saturday.

[hlcater]

No clue...

I've seen him lurking on AmWx threads from time to time

[james1976]

La Crosse biting on the south trend. Added some counties and going with 2-4" iso 5.

[bud2380]

Wow, quite the SW trend this morning from the models.  Canadian and GFS are giving me some reason for optimism.

[bud2380]

RGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018111612/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

new GFS

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018111612/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

All models are showing a lil more moisture too. Good trends.

[james1976]

Liking where the snow is currently at on radar in the Dakotas.

[hlcater]

HRRR has a bit of a convective look to it. Especially in the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves, could be some heavier rates in there.

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018111615/018/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[james1976]

I might be up late tonight enjoying this system!

[james1976]

Warnings flying for a few areas in N Dakota. Last minute surprise on the way? That HRRR looks interesting.

[jaster220]

Nice to see some of you peeps west of me excited to track. Enjoy! 

[bud2380]

Euro also shifted further SW.  

[bud2380]

Total QPF

 

[james1976]

I expect DMX and DVN to be issuing advisories anytime now since the Euro is out and has the SW trend as well.

[FarmerRick]

Total QPF

 

Capture.PNG

 

 

Which model is that?

[bud2380]

Which model is that?

Euro

[Madtown]

wow mkx gives me a wwa!

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, it's getting more interesting for the CR area.  The HRRR is showing some pretty good snow rates from 2-5am.

[james1976]

Just stepped outside at work. The air has that dense feeling and has that snow scent to it. It's very calm and the clouds are thick. Always love that anticipation right before a storm moves in.

[Tom]

12z EPS pretty much has a bulls-eye just NE of DSM into the northern/eastern part of IA.  In line with what the op run was showing that Bud posted.  Lighter precip as you head farther east into S WI/N IL but a general 1-2", maybe 2.5" in a few spots.

[bud2380]

18z HRRR coming in pretty good for Cedar Rapids.  3.1" by 6am.  Showing 1/2" per hour rates in the early AM hours.

[Tom]

Somebody in IA is going to cash in close to 5-6" if that meso-scale banding can set up just right.  Is an IA magnet gonna be a theme for a change??

[james1976]

18z HRRR coming in pretty good for Cedar Rapids. 3.1" by 6am. Showing 1/2" per hour rates in the early AM hours.

What's it showing up this way Bud?

I wonder if someone sees some convection

[james1976]

Annnnnnnd the sun is out lol.

[jaster220]

Total QPF

 

Capture.PNG

 

Need to post the "qpf as SNOW" map with this being a mixed P-type scenario. Some of that may be non-snow

[bud2380]

18z HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018111618/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Hawkeye]

DVN is expanding the advisory, but only down to Waterloo/Dubuque.  They must be skeptical of the farther south snow placement.

[BMT]

Its strange there is no advisory for CR... Point forecast in CR is now the same as Waterloo. (2 inches)  btw... long time reader first time poster.  i used to hand around the schnack blog with a few familiar names on this board.  Cheers to a good Winter

[james1976]

Thanks Bud.

Boom! I'm now in an advisory for 2-4".

[hlcater]

Yea I’m expecting 2-3” on the north side of CR. Some models(HRRR/RAP) take us closer to 4”, but I don’t necessarily buy that.

[bud2380]

DMX updated their snow map