11/16 - 11/17 Clipper System

[james1976]

Snow already breaking out north central and NW IA.

[hlcater]

Snow already breaking out north central and NW IA.

Stout EML per HRRR soundings in N IA. For now, it’s probably virga and rain. Diurnal cycle and evaporative cooling should moisten that EML quickly as well as cool the column below freezing in the process yielding snow by the time precip begins reaching the ground.

[Hawkeye]

Welcome, BMT!  I wish the guy from southwest Johnson county would join us as well.

 

Dang... the latest HRRR is super juiced, has a 0.50" strip through CR.

 

[Hawkeye]

18z GFS continues the southward sag.

[bud2380]

I’m glad I’m back in the game down here. Didn’t look great 24 hours ago.

[BMT]

Thanks Hawkeye.. Yes the trends are definitely our friend.  I'm just hoping for an inch or two...  anything else is bonus.  

[Grizzcoat]

[james1976]

[james1976]

Doing some last minute leaf and stick burning. Its awesome out here with the storm moving in and the clouds getting thicker. Perfect Friday ☺

[Hawkeye]

Two local mets are keeping the better snow along and north of Waterloo-Dubuque.  One of them still has Cedar Rapids in the T-1" band.  The other, Terry Swails, has the good band a little farther south, with 2-4 reaching down to near CR.  He said given the latest model data, he would extend the advisory farther south if he was in charge.

[james1976]

Heavy snow band up north is gonna hit S MN. I'm expecting development to my west which will hit much of IA. Also the snow in S Dakota should pivot thru IA. The pivot zone is always crucial with these clippers.

[Hawkeye]

The 20z HRRR had a 0.50" strip through CR.  However, the last three runs have dried out a fair amount.  The latest is down to about 0.30".

[GDR]

Yeah the hrrr is drying up fast. Not a good sign!

[GDR]

The 23z is drier also

[Madtown]

still in the 2-4 with amounts up to 5. MkX all in baby!

[james1976]

Looks like I'm gonna get split by the 2 heavier bands. Not good radar trends right now.

[hlcater]

One of the reasons the HRRR has cut back on precip totals is because it is underestimating the strength of low level dry air — as usual.

[james1976]

Looks like I80 corridor is gonna get nailed. Grizzcoat...Hawkeye...and Bud might Jack with this one.

[Grizzcoat]

Looks like I80 corridor is gonna get nailed. Grizzcoat...Hawkeye...and Bud might Jack with this one.

Temps are going to be an issue I believe. Even with evap cooling ; hope I'am wrong but I think rain wins out here along I-80.

[bud2380]

Winter weather advisories issued for I80 on north in eastern Iowa.

[james1976]

Snowing finally! Dusting so far. Not too excited with radar trends though. You guys are looking good down by Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Good luck to everyone!

[Madtown]

looks like a miss here...oh well

[gabel23]

An interesting development around our area. It now appears the drive home from the husker game tomorrow might be a bit dicey. Models are painting a possible narrow band of snow setting up along interstate 80. I’m hoping I luck out with this one as I missed out on the past couple of snows in our area. I’m heading to the husker game in the morning; its going to be a cold one that’s for sure!

 

 

a Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

1012 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

 

Updated to increase snowfall chances and amounts Saturday

afternoon and evening further north along I-80 corridor given 00Z

HRRR and NAM northward shift. There could be a narrow band of 1-2

inches of snowfall maybe even slightly higher across south

central Nebraska.

[Minny_Weather]

I'd like for there to be snow during the game. It's been a long time since we've had a snow game. 2007 I think?

[james1976]

Even though I haven't been under the higher DBZ with this system it's still been snowing consistently here and im now at 1.3". And a ways to go according to the radar! Temp has also fallen to 29. Was 32 when precip started.

[james1976]

Just hit 2 inches! Coming down pretty hard now.

[james1976]

Coming down hard. Big flakes now. Just measured 2.7" !

[Tom]

Snow has started here with a coating so far...

[Tom]

Took a look at the radar loop and it seems like CR/Iowa City and locations nearby have been getting hit pretty good.  @Hawkeye, how's the scene out by you?

[Tom]

Latest guidance is suggesting an interesting band of accumulating snow across S/SE NE/N KS/N MO/....

 

 

 

HRRR seeing it also...@LNK, you may score a hit from this one....

 

[Tom]

@ FV-Mike/Tony/Brian, you guys are getting hit pretty good near the I-88 corridor...

 

[FV-Mike]

Under a nice band right now. Beautiful out there. 

[bud2380]

About 1.5” here. Snow just about done.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I'm not setting my heart on it right now. There's a ton of dry air to overcome before we even start to see flakes.

[CentralNebWeather]

An interesting development around our area. It now appears the drive home from the husker game tomorrow might be a bit dicey. Models are painting a possible narrow band of snow setting up along interstate 80. I’m hoping I luck out with this one as I missed out on the past couple of snows in our area. I’m heading to the husker game in the morning; its going to be a cold one that’s for sure!

 

 

a Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

1012 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

 

Updated to increase snowfall chances and amounts Saturday

afternoon and evening further north along I-80 corridor given 00Z

HRRR and NAM northward shift. There could be a narrow band of 1-2

inches of snowfall maybe even slightly higher across south

central Nebraska.

I feel for you my friend. Bundle up. It is 25 here with a chill of 10 and temp is falling. I think the snow should stay east of Lincoln during the day. Cheer loud, big game for us.

[Madtown]

1.5 or so here...while a bust on amounts it's the 3rd tome grass has been covered here....not bad for Nov!

[CentralNebWeather]

Latest 12z 12km NAM has a decent hit in south central Nebraska just south of I 80 with a solid 3”

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 2.7 inches from 0.29" liquid.  I woke up a couple times overnight and looked out the bedroom window, but the visibility was no big deal so I just went back to sleep.  If it's snowing overnight, it needs to be heavy or I just don't care anymore.

[jaster220]

I picked up 2.7 inches from 0.29" liquid.  I woke up a couple times overnight and looked out the bedroom window, but the visibility was no big deal so I just went back to sleep.  If it's snowing overnight, it needs to be heavy or I just don't care anymore.

Even when I was younger, I never stayed up for snow. I might get up a bit early to see if it was "happening" as forecast during a storm warning but that was it tbh

[Tom]

About 1.1” on my deck and this weenie band is delivering over NE IL w/ some good rates and sizeable snow flakes ATM. Earlier in the gym, while crushing legs, I witnessed a vision I had way back in the summer...looking out the windows and seeing a snowy scene. Although, I never expected it to happen this early in the season. Glad I was able to capture that moment.