East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z Euro good hit for S NE/N KS/N MO/ SE IA/S WI...a band of 2-8” in NW MO into SE IA/ S WI.So a better looking run snow-wise compared to the 00z run? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I'm on the road and can't check Euro. Is it later at all? About when does the snow start and end for SE NE? I'd like it to trend more towards Sunday night or Monday if possible. That way I'd be home by then and there'd be a stronger storm. A win-win. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 So a better looking run snow-wise compared to the 00z run?Yes sir, much better wrapped up cold air across IA. It looked similar structure wise compared to the FV3-GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z euro.... This run is quick and south. The quickness doens't allow all the warm air to get pulled up into Iowa, but then that keeps all the precip farther se. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 West of Illinois and maybe Southern WI seem to be the winners on this one so good luck to you all. We will get some wrap around so at least not to feel left out but still early in the season with many more storms to follow in December. I am liking the trend with these early snow producers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 My drive home from Milwaukee Sunday will be fun. Better make sure i've got plenty of podcasts loaded up! I'm sure traffic will be awesome. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 That was a beautiful run by the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z euro.... This run is quick and south. The quickness doens't allow all the warm air to get pulled up into Iowa, but then that keeps all the precip farther se. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018112012_162_5660_323.pngI’m slightly confused by this map. Is it saying .6” of snow, or .6” of precipitation that falls in the form of snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I’m slightly confused by this map. Is it saying .6” of snow, or .6” of precipitation that falls in the form of snow?I think it's in liquid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I think it's in liquid Yes, it's QPF that falls as snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I’m slightly confused by this map. Is it saying .6” of snow, or .6” of precipitation that falls in the form of snow?.6” of precip that falls as snow. That says nothing about the actual snow yield though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Timing looks to be Sunday AM for the start time in eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Took a look at the individual 12z EPS members and there are still a good amount of them digging this storm south and east...with some big time hits all across the Plains/MW region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Of note, the 12z EPS snow shield has shifted SE to cover nearly all of IA, as well as, now including the KC region and into NW MO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Euro is the furthest south and east. But it's the Euro so cant discount that solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Euro has a 100% success rate this season so definitely don't discount it. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Tabitha waited for me to be out of the country to do her thing. Great. What a crazy lady.Has she sued you yet like she claimed she was going to? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Tabitha waited for me to be out of the country to do her thing.Great. What a crazy lady.Reverse Map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Reverse Map?Yup 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 18z ICON weaker, with more rain. Pretty compact system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Looks like gfs is coming in further nw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Looks a bit west to me, at least in terms of the snow shield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Looks like gfs is coming in further nwSlight, but not by that much - at least the SLP placement. Seems warmer compared to 12z, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112018/150/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Looks a bit west to me, at least in terms of the snow shield.Yeah I don’t know if the overall storm shifted a lot in terms of SLP, but the heavier snow shield did. Probably has to do with the storm slowing down on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 inch to 12 inches in 30 miles. Another sharp cutoff in the works? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 The new gfs (18z) took a step SE and looks great for IA https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112018&fh=102 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 18z FV3- GFS tapping into the cold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 That shift east puts all the good stuff in central Iowa and Wisconsin get pounded. Man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 ^lol.....lock it in 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Besides the snow, the GFS is predicting widespread 40-50 mph wind gusts across the Plains in NE/KS. Blizzard potential??? Tossing out the "B-word" during the first day of the first storm thread - love it! The lack of any cold HP near the GL’s is keeping this storm from being an all out snowstorm, instead it’s a rain to snow scenario. which would actually be more in line with climo, tho this month has been anything but typical climo, lol. The FV3 scenario it had been painting was interesting as it keeps a NW flow transition to LES that lasts quite a while and could make up for a warm front side. Interesting to watch this play out, eh? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 18z FV3- GFS tapping into the cold. That’s more like it. Lock it in and let’s make it happen! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 That’s more like it. Lock it in and let’s make it happen! Seriously what is with the GFS splitting Omaha with quite a bit to the north and south lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 That’s more like it. Lock it in and let’s make it happen! Yep, and maintain it's strength across The Mitt so I can get some backside lake enhancement. That worked out real nicely 10 days ago. This could be even better. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Seriously what is with the GFS splitting Omaha with quite a bit to the north and south lol.Cuz that's what tends to happen. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 The Omaha dome is real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Cuz that's what tends to happen.You *******, you cut that out with not wanting a storm! lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 You *******, you cut that s**t out with not wanting a storm! lolFacts don't care about your feelings Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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