11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Facts don't care about your feelings

When was i disagreeing about facts? lol. You wouldn't be acting this way if you were in town lol. 

[james1976]

FV3 is way compact. Basically just barely misses me. Gonna be some sharp cutoffs with this storm.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ICON model literally looks like a strong clipper and dives southwest of nebraska then northeast.

[hlcater]

Climo is against a significant storm for really any of us outside of MN. It’s just reality.

[Money]

Climo is against a significant storm for really any of us outside of MN. It’s just reality.

Climo has been wrong already this winter

[Minny_Weather]

When was i disagreeing about facts? lol. You wouldn't be acting this way if you were in town lol.

I don't see how I'd say anything different. The truth is oftentimes when GFS screws Omaha Omaha gets screwed. Happened all last year.

[St Paul Storm]

Climo is against a significant storm for really any of us outside of MN. It’s just reality.

Climo also says places like St Louis shouldn’t be leading the Midwest in snowfall, ever. Throw climo out the window this winter.

[Minny_Weather]

Climo also says places like St Louis shouldn’t be leading the Midwest in snowfall, ever. Throw climo out the window this winter.

And that Southeast Lincoln shouldn't have 4x the snowfall of St. Paul in mid-November.

[hlcater]

You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker.

[St Paul Storm]

And that Southeast Lincoln shouldn't have 4x the snowfall of St. Paul in mid-November.

Where’s the dislike button? Haha

[Money]

You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker.

It’s usually also not this cold in November

 

The key is gonna be how quick the cold air can move in after the first storm passes. If it can sag south quicker than this thing could def bomb out farther south

[Jaycee]

Idk why I’m even tracking this so closely as Chicago has no shot at getting anything other than rain. I think Neb is sitting well, esp with thing sagging SE right now, perfect timing for it to make its NW jump last minute and bomb out right over top of Eastern Nebraska. Hope we can get something like this storm out here in Chicago soon!

[St Paul Storm]

You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker.

Trust me, I won’t be upset if you’re right. All I’m saying is climo has already been dissed several times this season. I expect that to continue.

[St Paul Storm]

Early take from MPX:

At this point this is a

system to keep an eye on as there is still uncertainty in the path

it will take, but for now it`s favoring a southern solution. This

is a complicated situation given the split flow pattern with a

subtropical jet across the far southern CONUS. Tend to agree that

a southern solution for the storm will prevail.

[East Dubzz]

Early take from MPX:

At this point this is a

system to keep an eye on as there is still uncertainty in the path

it will take, but for now it`s favoring a southern solution. This

is a complicated situation given the split flow pattern with a

subtropical jet across the far southern CONUS. Tend to agree that

a southern solution for the storm will prevail.

DVN really staying away from giving too many takes, besides letting it be know there is a chance for snow.

[Stormhunter87]

Local TV forecaster is forecasting an inch and a low impact storm

[jaster220]

You can’t ever throw climo out. Just don’t be upset if the storm decides to law down the snow from C NE thru C MN. I fail to see how a 990mb low, even this year, cuts further SE than IA. The only way I see that as a viable solution is if the low ends up trending much weaker.

 

'tis the season for magic..

[jaster220]

Local TV forecaster is forecasting an inch and a low impact storm

 

sorry, but seems dumb from this far out to discount any solution at this point, let alone decide on it's strength . You couldn't pay me to watch a local forecaster for a storm call. Maybe within 6 hrs..but then only maybe

[Minny_Weather]

Local TV forecaster is forecasting an inch and a low impact storm

Who? That's shitty this far out. Back when I forecasted on social media, I refused to forecast any amounts farther than 48hrs out. I feel like he should have done the same but I guess ratings are cool too.

[Stormhunter87]

sorry, but seems dumb from this far out to discount any solution at this point, let alone decide on it's strength . You couldn't pay me to watch a local forecaster for a storm call. Maybe within 6 hrs..but then only maybe

Yeah not a fan of his forecast plus I think he trying to down play it. He hasn't had the best track record so far this year.

[Stormhunter87]

Who? That's shitty this far out. Back when I forecasted on social media, I refused to forecast any amounts farther than 48hrs out. I feel like he should have done the same but I guess ratings are cool too.

Rusty lord he focused mainly on the euro.

[Minny_Weather]

Rusty lord he focused mainly on the euro.

Never been a fan of Rusty Lord. He has a ton of hot takes regarding weather and he does it all for views.

[jcwxguy]

Rusty lord he focused mainly on the euro.

makes sense for crusty

[jaster220]

Who? That's shitty this far out. Back when I forecasted on social media, I refused to forecast any amounts farther than 48hrs out. I feel like he should have done the same but I guess ratings are cool too.

 

Got a new avatar for ya based on your station acro.

 

You can be Colonel KL(i)NK

 

 

 

Nobody's gonna tell you how Lincoln avoids screw-jobs!

 

 

:lol:

[Stormhunter87]

Never been a fan of Rusty Lord. He has a ton of hot takes regarding weather and he does it all for views.

Definitely agree plus he does live streams now. Last time I tuned in pointed out other model runs he completely down played it. But the last round of energy he said maybe an inch then changed it to flurries. Then 80 turned into a nightmare after the game.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Never been a fan of Rusty Lord. He has a ton of hot takes regarding weather and he does it all for views.

Huh? I think he's probably one of the most conservative forecasters out there lol

[Hoosier]

Certain patterns/setups are more likely to produce a result that goes against climo, as we have already seen unfold this season. Looking at the overall setup for this particular storm, the system ejects from the KS/OK latitude (not deep into Texas), there is not a whole lot of antecedent cold and there is some ridging out ahead. Basically I don't see a way that the main snow swath comes too far south. Where it gets more interesting for folks around IL/IN/lower MI is whether it slows down and sort of stalls for a while as some model runs have hinted at. Could get some lighter snows in those areas (possible exception downwind of lakes where there could be more) but the swath of heaviest synoptic snows should stay farther north/west.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Icon hits Nebraska and Kansas

[Stormhunter87]

0z Icon hits Nebraska and Kansas

Central or eastern Nebraska?

[GDR]

Central or eastern Nebraska?

very hard

[GDR]

Eastern and south east

[Minny_Weather]

Huh? I think he's probably one of the most conservative forecasters out there lol

He's conservative, yeah, but that doesn't mean forecast amounts 5 days out.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ICON

 

[Stormhunter87]

A little south for my liking but man that's alot of moisture.

[jaster220]

A little south for my liking but man that's alot of moisture.

 

looks jack perfect for yby

[jcwxguy]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

[Grizzcoat]

GFS crushes most of W Ia

[GDR]

Looks a little more south and east

[Craig-OmahaWX]