11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Iowawx]

The models in CR have a 13 inch spread. Ranging from 1 inch on the euro to 13.8 on the 3K NAM.

 

I honestly have no idea how this will pan out here.

[jaster220]

18z Euro. Definitely not as north as every other model.

 

407FEEE9-6B86-4058-B73F-E01192FB0E68.jpeg

 

Actually in lock-step with what the HRDPS has over SWMI - nice

[Stacsh]

How long have you been around there/SWMI? This is the classic GRR has their head up their a$$ scenario. Seems like every time we get a big dog on a holiday this happens. Happened for New Years Eve '13, Superbowl Storm '15, and now this at Thanksgiving weekend. I guess they aren't Chicago so they don't have to hear any outcry from millions of peeps.

I’ve lived hear my whole life. They talk up nothing and are taken by surprise a lot.

[jaster220]

I couldn't read a sounding to save my life, but from somebody who can, this catches my eye

 

 

Some of the forecast soundings off the 18z HRRR are showing 65kts at 925 northwest of the low later tomorrow afternoon.  That's seriously impressive.  With heavy precip falling and some convective elements it would result in very strong wind gust potential simultaneous with heavy snow falling.

[Money]

Gfs looks nice for you NE peeps

[Stormhunter87]

Wow GFS is not backing off. I would laugh so hard if it got the last laugh

[snowstorm83]

Lincoln gets blasted on the GFS

[bud2380]

GFS a little stronger, perhaps just a smidge further north. 

[ToastedRavs]

I couldn't read a sounding to save my life, but from somebody who can, this catches my eye

That is indeed impressive. Basically hurricane level winds just 2200 feet to maybe 2700 feet off the ground. That can be dangerous for aircraft obviously, as its speed sheer and potentially speed and directional sheer. Wouldn't be surprised if that does come true that airports suspend operations for a bit until the wind sheer subsides. And if that translates to the surface...hello, white out conditions!

[Stacsh]

Reading into GRR wording they are worried about temps here in Michigan.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

WOW. Gfs now 6 to 10 for me in Omaha. This is a bizzare storm

[gabel23]

That is indeed impressive. Basically hurricane level winds just 2200 feet to maybe 2700 feet off the ground. That can be dangerous for aircraft obviously, as its speed sheer and potentially speed and directional sheer. Wouldn't be surprised if that does come true that airports suspend operations for a bit until the wind sheer subsides. And if that translates to the surface...hello, white out conditions!

That scares the out of me, my sister leaves Omaha tomorrow at 11 am, she lives in Las Vegas and had to take her back tonight to stay because we didn’t think we would make it tomorrow! I just hope she can fly out safely.

[Money]

Gfs is quite a bit north from 18z...

[bud2380]

yes please.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112500/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[ToastedRavs]

In my opinion, DMX should or hopefully will add Madison and Adair, perhaps Cass counties up to a warning. Maybe even the counties towards I80 (Des Moines metro) as the southern half of those counties are in heavy snows on a lot of the models. Already at 34 at my place, so any rain will be very short lived

[jcwxguy]

Lincoln gets blasted on the GFS

and Omaha lol

[jcwxguy]

As bad as I want the GFS to be right, it is pretty much all on its own

[ToastedRavs]

That scares the s**t out of me, my sister leaves Omaha tomorrow at 11 am, she lives in Las Vegas and had to take her back tonight to stay because we didn’t think we would make it tomorrow! I just hope she can fly out safely.

I hope she has safe travels. I just flew back in today luckily. A lot will depend on timing of her departure and where the low is as well as the aircraft type, and of course pilot experience.

[gabel23]

As bad as I want the GFS to be right, it is pretty much all on its own

I think this has more surprises for us; snow is a couple hours ahead of happening in parts of central nebraska. I think when we look back at this storm it’s a combination of the gfs and euro.

[Minny_Weather]

It's way too late to be looking at GFS. It's almost too late to be looking at models in general.

[bud2380]

Black and white map of the GGEM appears to be similar to the RGEM.  And that isn't too far from the NAM or GFS.  Canadian models are just a bit further south than the American ones, but not a lot. 

[bud2380]

GGEM

 

[Clinton]

KC metro just added to the blizzard warning.  That has to be a first for Nov!

[jaster220]

I’ve lived hear my whole life. They talk up nothing and are taken by surprise a lot.

 

Only 1 guy there is a fan of cold and snow, thus why a snowstorm never gets paid too much attention, let alone hyped.

 

Reading into GRR wording they are worried about temps here in Michigan.

 

I knew they'd be reaching into their bag of annual excuses to pull that very old and worn card out. That's the one they love to pull when all else fails, lol. Ofc, non of us know until it's done and over, but certainly for you up there temps shouldn't be the issue it may be down here. I think one problem is that it's been like decades since this type of system has come around and they just don't have much firsthand experience to lean on.

[Sciascia]

LOT update...

[KCSmokey]

KC metro just added to the blizzard warning. That has to be a first for Nov!

Last time the NWSKansasCity office issued a Blizzard Warning for any of the counties they are responsible for was Wed. Dec 19th 2012.

[Clinton]

Last time the NWSKansasCity office issued a Blizzard Warning for any of the counties they are responsible for was Wed. Dec 19th 2012.

 

I don't believe they have ever issued one in the month of November. 

[jaster220]

0z HRRR N IL with some sick snowfall rates!

 

[gabel23]

Snowflakes have begun to fall, mixing in with rain. Now hopefully the gfs turns out to be right!

[bud2380]

3z RAP showing a foot for Iowa City

[WBadgersW]

I really don't know what to expect. This afternoon it looked like 0-1". Good luck MXK!

[Iowawx]

The newest run of the HRRR looks really good for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Doesn't quite cover whole storm yet, but heavy bands are shown in the area. 

[Niko]

0z HRRR N IL with some sick snowfall rates!

 

2-3" per/hr

[jaster220]

So, 0z HRRR has slowed the storm down a bit and seems to have joined the Euro camp for SMI.

 

 

Meanwhile, the 12km NAM went bonkers strong and NW. Model mayhem continues..

[Niko]

MI peeps need to watch this....it can go either way

[jaster220]

Also, HRDPS at 18z snowfall map gives this area about 9-10" in about a 9 hr period from midnight Sunday night to 9 am Monday. I'd take that and run!

[jaster220]

MI peeps need to watch this....it can go either way

 

GRR says "nothing to see here, move along.."

[Stormhunter87]

Well enough model watching tonight. I'm praying for a GFS surprise when I wake up lol. Gabel23 that is awesome. That is a quick change over!

[Niko]

GRR says "nothing to see here, move along.."

[Stacsh]

Such a compacted system. Usually they cut a little for SMI and bring the temps up above freezing. Doesn’t look like this one will.