11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

A composite blend of the major models at this range is really looking good for IA posters. 

[james1976]

Man, someone is gonna get buried. Dont forget about the wind with this thing.

[Tom]

Either way you look at it, that is going to be one hellova defo band setting up across the Plains/MW for those lucky enough to be underneath it.  The 00z Euro Control trying to give some love farther SE...

[Tom]

Interesting trends overnight for those of us in N IL as there are more EPS members showing snow across the area and now bring the 2" line into the area.  Overall, still looking good for nearly all of IA and centering the jack zone from DSM thru DVN.  However, I will say, the snow shield is getting notably smaller and not as widespread it was showing a couple days ago.  This makes sense since we are seeing the op runs with a more potent/dynamic/compact system.

[Grizzcoat]

I think at this range the models are really struggling with temps; both surface and aloft. Forecast High temp for DSM area is around 50-52F on Saturday. It's pretty difficult to get an appreciable snow event in C.IA with highs in the lows 50's 12 hours out,, even in Jan. So these S models - I don't buy. I think the jack zone will run very neat the HWY-20 to HWY 30 corridor in C.IA-- if not further N . 

[East Dubzz]

From the DVN:

 

“Sunday remains the main question in the long term as models have all trended to a solution that makes the area wet. While models have similar locations of the track of the system, the small differences in terms of 40 to 60 miles makes a world of difference as far as impacts from this system. The 00Z GEFS solutions vary widely and lead to low confidence in the operational solutions. That said, these types of systems are usually slower and will likely feature a low track that is further west and north of where it currently is. If this were to occur, the entire area would see rain. If the track shifts east 40 to 50 miles we could be in for quite the winter weather event. With these differences confidence in overall solutions and expected impacts is low. Those traveling Sunday especially across the region should pay attention to future forecasts.”

[Tom]

I think at this range the models are really struggling with temps; both surface and aloft. Forecast High temp for DSM area is around 50-52F on Saturday. It's pretty difficult to get an appreciable snow event in C.IA with highs in the lows 50's 12 hours out,, even in Jan. So these S models - I don't buy. I think the jack zone will run very neat the HWY-20 to HWY 30 corridor in C.IA-- if not further N . 

I agree with you that, at this stage in the game, the models will struggle with temps aloft and at the surface.  My thoughts from yesterday stand and I would tend to see cooler trends if they continue to advertise a dynamic storm system.  We are a long ways away to see the models figure out these finer details.  Additionally, that lead wave over the weekend in the N GL's is also playing an important role as it will create the trailing CF, whereby, systems love to track along.  I think your area is golden at this point.  The Euro is fairly accurate inside 5 days so to see it continue to paint the jack zone in C IA and into E IA, I like your chances.

[Grizzcoat]

From the DVN:

 

“Sunday remains the main question in the long term as models have all trended to a solution that makes the area wet. While models have similar locations of the track of the system, the small differences in terms of 40 to 60 miles makes a world of difference as far as impacts from this system. The 00Z GEFS solutions vary widely and lead to low confidence in the operational solutions. That said, these types of systems are usually slower and will likely feature a low track that is further west and north of where it currently is. If this were to occur, the entire area would see rain. If the track shifts east 40 to 50 miles we could be in for quite the winter weather event. With these differences confidence in overall solutions and expected impacts is low. Those traveling Sunday especially across the region should pay attention to future forecasts.”

 

seems they are with DMX and reading between the lines that they discount the Southern guidance. Again- I think C.IA to N.IA wins out. I think even the Twin Cities areas cannot be ruled out for heavy snow. If you really pinprick the recent trends and do the math- S.MN into C.WS may win out. I've been at this professionally a lot longer then my joining date shows on this forum - if I were in the Twin Cities area etc. -- no way I throw in the towel. 

[james1976]

I'm pretty close to the jackzone right now but it's a few days out yet so that makes me a bit nervous. Fun system. If its snow I hope its daytime so I can fully enjoy it!

[St Paul Storm]

MPX sticking with southern solutions:

There is considerable spread in ensemble guidance with the track of this

system. A few bring a swath of heavy snow across Minnesota into

northern Wisconsin, several others take it south across Nebraska,

Iowa, into southern and central Wisconsin, and others keep the

trough positively tilted with little surface cyclone reflection.

A large gyre across Canada will probably keep this wave on a more

southerly track acting as a spoke to the larger circulation,

unless there`s additional phasing with another short wave just to

the north that isn`t being modeled.

[St Paul Storm]

06z GEFS members.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local Mets. really backing off on the storm potential here. ( I think they really rely a lot on the Euro and with it moving more southeast they pretty much are saying a non event here).  There have been a lot of changes the last 3 days, let's see the next couple.  

As Tom has stated, if you don't get anything from this storm, there are many more opportunities.  

[Stormhunter87]

At this point we need the storm to actually make landfall and see what the NAM does with it. Been fun watching this storm either way.

[Stormgeek]

06z GEFS members.

I will take member 8 to go, please.

[snowballfight80]

OAX weather discussion:

A second stronger shortwave is expected to arrive in the region
late Saturday into Sunday, bringing with it windier, colder, and
potentially snowier weather. The general trend in the models (for
the track of the upper trough and surface low) remains largely
unchanged from this time yesterday, and continues to favor a swath
of accumulating snow through the central plains. For this reason,
rain, turning to snow Saturday night into early Sunday, remains
the going forecast for our region. Changes in the forecast
track/strength of the system remain possible. Anyone with travel
plans in the central Plains Sunday should monitor the forecast
closely. Forecast confidence in a significant snow storm over
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa Saturday night and Sunday remains
moderate.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

If you live in Nebraska.....there isnt always next time...lol. storms and setups like these dont come around often. Fun to track and im mildly excited!

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

LONG TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Long range guidance continues to indicate a very active pattern for
the long term period. The GFS and ECMWF are in generally good
agreement with southeast Michigan being in between amplifying
northern stream and southern stream energy, with the result being a
period of light to moderate showers during the day Saturday.
Temperature profiles will remain above freezing to result in rain as
the ptype. As this first system exits by Sunday, only a brief
reprieve looks to be in store as additional Pacific energy ejecting
out of the Rockies results in potentially deep low pressure
developing in the mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening. Still
plenty of time to watch this system unfold as it impacts the region
for early next week, with the exact synoptic evolution and track
having significant implications on ptype.

 

Pieces still need to get ironed out per models.

[Money]

Icon is way south...

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ICON model just changed drastically lol. Even south of the euro. Says what storm?

[St Paul Storm]

Meanwhile the 12z NAM has the precip shield way north in the Dakotas. Model differences may increase even more before they converge on a solution.

[St Paul Storm]

I will take member 8 to go, please.

I’d take about half of those solutions.

[bud2380]

ICON

 

[Money]

Check out the difference in the northern stream system

[East Dubzz]

Meanwhile the 12z NAM has the precip shield way north in the Dakotas. Model differences may increase even more before they converge on a solution.

I feel as if the NAM starts off with the northern solutions every single time.

[bud2380]

I feel as if the NAM starts off with the northern solutions every single time.

 

That has always seemed to be the bias with the NAM, but it has fared pretty well so far this winter season.  I'm going to keep riding the Euro until it burns me a few more times.  It's been a little off so far this month, but overall still has the best track record.  

[Money]

Gfs also going south

[Clinton]

ICON

 

 

The ICON very much resembles the Oct version of this system.  My hope is with the jet stream being stronger and some blocking being present that this system will slow down and be a bit stronger.

[St Paul Storm]

Way way south. Congrats N MO.

[GDR]

Gfs coming in south also

[Stormhunter87]

Yeah my parents and family from MO and IL covered in that nice heavy band in the icon. Sigh snow hates me. I lived in DC from 98 to 02 only one noreaster when I lived there. Three the year before and the year after I moved they had one that dumped 20 inches.

[GDR]

Looks like chi town is real close nice hit for northern Missouri

[St Paul Storm]

Tom is the winner of the 12z GFS sweepstakes. Congrats Tom.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Sigh....thought last night things were agreeing a bit more lol. This looks more like a clipper. Northern jet too strong in a way doesnt allow it to dig over KC

[East Dubzz]

This run of the GFS looks like an improvement. Pretty impressed with the consistency given how far out it is. Makes me think we could still be in for a surprise...

Going to pat myself on the back here. Knew there was going to be some kind of change at some point.

[bud2380]

Extremely low ratios on the GFS using Kuchera.  10:1 map is significantly higher with snow totals, so I'm guessing this run is showing only 6-8:1 ratios.  Looks a lot like the ICON, now even further south than the Euro.  GFS has really been all over on this storm so once again I'll be waiting for the Euro to see if it shifts at all.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112112/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like the GEM is trying to tie the Friday system in with the late weekend storm. Because why not.

[james1976]

Well that changed drastically from past few runs.

[james1976]

Nothing wound up. Looks like a plain old wave.

[bud2380]

Canadian also shifted south

 

[james1976]

Wouldn't be surprised if Euro goes even more south. Prolly be another St Louis bomb.