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March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II


Geos

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Since the other thread is about 1200 posts or 61 pages - I think it's time for a continuation thread for the remaining 2 weeks of the month.

 

Discuss. 

 

The CPC outlook.... The only problem with it, is that it doesn't tell you how much below normal it is. It could be -1° or -6°.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yeah, site's doing really well.

 

Geos, you've been calling for above normal temps for awhile.

 

Even if Euro is showing 30-35 degree temps, that would still be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.

 

Last year at this time it was like 83 degrees. 

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Since the other thread is about 1200 posts or 61 pages - I think it's time for a continuation thread for the remaining 2 weeks of the month.

 

Discuss. 

 

The CPC outlook.... The only problem with it, is that it doesn't tell you how much below normal it is. It could be -1° or -6°.

that is true geos that i am thinking that it is not going to get that cold that i am saying that heading to the end of the month we will be in the same weather pattren like we are now that the cpc is wrong on that.

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Geo's, the way NOAA operates is they base their forecast on percentages and not actual temp departures.  However, I will say this, if they are forecasting a very high probability of the temps being below normal, we can assume that temps will be below normal.  On top of that, we have seen this before countless times this winter season where NOAA was forecasting a below normal temp regime in the (80-90%) probability range and temps were 20-25 below normal.  The 1st week of March was the last example of this happening.

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The24weatherman, so your saying that you believe end of March to be in the same wx pattern we are in NOW???  That basically contradicts what you suggest bc it is friggin' cold outside today for March standards!  If that's the case, then I agree, it will be D**n cold last week of March.

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This winter reminds me of how hard it is to break patterns. During the winter of 11-12 the models would show cold/snow at 200 hours out yet in most cases it never came through. I know people are sick of the cold, but below avg temps may linger well into the middle of April.

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Yeah, site's doing really well.

 

Geos, you've been calling for above normal temps for awhile.

 

Even if Euro is showing 30-35 degree temps, that would still be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.

 

Last year at this time it was like 83 degrees. 

You mean two years ago, lol

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WildWisconsin and myself mentioned during this season at one point comparing how this wx pattern resembled the complete opposite of 2011/12 that stuck around through the entire winter and continued throughout Spring/Summer.  Now, take that knowledge and you can use this information in predicting the wx pattern into the Spring/Summer season this year.  Glad you are seeing the patterns FV-Mike.

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Yeah, site's doing really well.

 

Geos, you've been calling for above normal temps for awhile.

 

Even if Euro is showing 30-35 degree temps, that would still be a good 10-15 degrees below normal.

 

Last year at this time it was like 83 degrees. 

 

I've been siding with seasonable at times with below normal at other times.

 

March 20-21st 2 years ago was in the 80s here. Other locations away from the lake racked up more than 2 days in the 80s.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Almost 2" of snow last night here. Waterloo got 1.5" and is now only 2.1" from the all-time record.

 

Is that the only snow you have now? new?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The24weatherman, so your saying that you believe end of March to be in the same wx pattern we are in NOW???  That basically contradicts what you suggest bc it is friggin' cold outside today for March standards!  If that's the case, then I agree, it will be D**n cold last week of March.

i agree tom you are right about the visit by the polar vortex that the lobe will be coming down and stay for4 or 5 days before exiting and hopefully for the season.

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just seen on the weather centre that a possible super el nino could be in the works toward winter 2014 2015 season.

 

That would make for an interesting season with the warm ocean pocket south of Alaska.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CAA must have shut off, temp has not dropped at all since 6pm. Marine air should keep the temp up tonight.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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there is two systems coming this week on the 17 and the 23rd and both are weak by chicago weather center.

 

Both systems, weak and wet.

 

Looks like it's going to be a nice day. Sitting at 20° right now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Rgem drops quite a bit of snow here Wednesday morning

 

Actually just north of you.

 

 

At least if the snow cover stays away you can eek out some mild days here and there.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Finally the GFS is correcting colder for this weekend into next week as was expected.  Those fantasy land 60's/70's are a thing of the past and Ol' Man Winter reminds us who is in control this winter.  It's going to be close if ORD can come close to 1st place this winter.  We still have 2 weeks to go.

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70s...? I don't think I ever saw those this far north.

 

GFS definitely has some 50s coming after next weekend. 27-30th definitely. Bu that's fantasy land.

 

Getting close to 30° downtown Racine at this hour.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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70s...? I don't think I ever saw those this far north.

 

GFS definitely has some 50s coming after next weekend.

 

Getting close to 30° downtown Racine at this hour.

 

Yeah for like a day when a storm comes through, then it's back into the low 30s

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