March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Tony]

Now CPC is going with 90% probability that the Great Lakes/Northeast will see below normal temps...looks very familiar to what the CPC had outlooked in late Feb for early March.  What were the departures back then...20-30F below normal!  I smell a repeat performance in the making.  Call me crazy, but this is a hell of a winter pattern to witness.  This winter pattern should be taught in meteorology schools for decades to come bc its something we probably won't witness in a very long time.  This winter season may total 5 months if it hangs on till mid April.

I hope they run out of paint soon!

[Tom]

I wonder what the over/under would've been for a record breaking cold snap last 8-10 days of March in Vegas????  I would have put some money down on that and raked in the cash.  Putting my money to work and buy some Call Options for Natural Gas.

[Tony]

I wonder what the over/under would've been for a record breaking cold snap last 8-10 days of March in Vegas????  I would have put some money down on that and raked in the cash.  Putting my money to work and buy some Call Options for Natural Gas.

The heating bills will just continue to be out of control. Folks that have been following the weather closely and placing stock options on natural gas will make out like a bandit this year.

[Geos]

Geo's, watch the video JB posted on Wx Bell regarding the Strat Warming.  A Major SSW event is taking place especially at 10mb right over the north pole.

 

12z GGEM...

 

Going by what I know...

If you dig around on Amwx, you'll find met's saying that you need the vector's to point towards the NP. If they don't then it's just going to be seasonable cold shot. There's some vectors way back two weeks ago point towards the pole, but they didn't continue.

 

Even with the developments at 10mb, it has to propagate down to 100mb to be successful. (The division of the trosphere and stratosphere. - Then the troposphere part of the PV is dislodged).

 

---

 

I have to say this split flow pattern has really dried it out in this area and other parts of the Midwest.

[Tom]

Geo's, are you saying we will see seasonal cold shots???  The SSW event taking place now is propagating at the important levels from my understanding and it will cause severe cold, not seasonal cold shots.

[Geos]

Geo's, are you saying we will see seasonal cold shots???  The SSW event taking place now is propagating at the important levels from my understanding and it will cause severe cold, not seasonal cold shots.

 

I'm going by what I know that I learned in the winter of 2011-2012. Cold shots that are not unheard of in March, not once in a lifetime cold shots for the time of season like the models are showing. A lot has to happen in order for a SSW event to successfully disrupt its troposphere counterpart. It has to propagate down to the lower stratosphere. (I believe in an x amount of time too) It might be successful if it happens before April, but like JB said, in April these events have an opposite effect.

[tim the weatherman]

I'm going by what I know that I learned in the winter of 2011-2012. Cold shots that are not unheard of in March, not once in a lifetime cold shots for the time of season like the models are showing. A lot has to happen in order for a SSW event to successfully disrupt its troposphere counterpart. It has to propagate down to the lower stratosphere. (I believe in an x amount of time too) It might be successful if it happens before April, but like JB said, in April these events have an opposite effect.

the what tom was sayng that the ssw event has something to do with the stratosphere where jets and hot balloons go up to.

[tim the weatherman]

Geo's, are you saying we will see seasonal cold shots???  The SSW event taking place now is propagating at the important levels from my understanding and it will cause severe cold, not seasonal cold shots.

also we might going throgh the final warming of the stratosphere so that means winter might come to a close by the first of april.

[tim the weatherman]

and the what tom also had said about the ssw event happening next week has to do with the polar vortex that is coming down in pieces.

[Tom]

The SSW event has been taking place over the past 2 weeks so it is in the month of March, not April like you may be insisting.  JB mentioned in his video that this is a great example of how SSW events in March deliver very cold air even in late March/early April.  I think your comments contradict to what your trying to imply.  I gotta tell you, based on the LRC and the SSW event, this will most likely be a historic event as has this entire winter season.  I believe this is history in the making and that is very exciting to me.  We can all enjoy the weather mother nature brings or simply dwell on it.  I'd rather enjoy it since this opportunity will be very difficult to repeat in the years to come.

[Madtown]

What does this thing coming in on Thurs Night/Fri look like? Headed p to St Paul for the Big Ten Hockey Tourny and trying to figure out if Thurs night or Fri morning would be a better trip. Need to be there by 12 noon Fri.

[james1976]

Now CPC is going with 90% probability that the Great Lakes/Northeast will see below normal temps...looks very familiar to what the CPC had outlooked in late Feb for early March.  What were the departures back then...20-30F below normal!  I smell a repeat performance in the making.  Call me crazy, but this is a hell of a winter pattern to witness.  This winter pattern should be taught in meteorology schools for decades to come bc its something we probably won't witness in a very long time.  This winter season may total 5 months if it hangs on till mid April.

dear god....

[james1976]

thats quite a temp outlook

[james1976]

its been so cold all winter that i dont even know what the normal high is right now....im so used to it being cold that it "feels" normal. lol.

is that bad?

[james1976]

GFS showing clipper for next monday. and plenty of cold air.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_165_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
 

[Madtown]

Here's to creating new normal....welcome to the Ice Age to the Ice Age

[james1976]

a clipper with cold air and snow in late March? wow

[Tom]

18z GFS showing the classic "Siberian Express" pattern we have seen all season long building in Canada next Sunday and entering the lower 48 next Mon/Tue!

[Tom]

Looks like another cold weekend on tap next week with temps crashing Saturday as an arctic front hits and highs don't get out of the 20's Sunday!  GFS has 4 days next week in N IL that don't crack 32F.  The ice box of the nation (International Falls) certainly will continue to tack on subzero lows to it's already record setting year.  Th_Snow may not like what mother nature has in store after a nice dumping of heavy snow tomorrow.

[Tom]

JMA/CFSv2 have been very accurate this year predicting the patterns that have set forth this winter season.  April is NOT looking warm and the same ol' story will continue.  Anyone want to challenge that idea????  I think a lot of us now know how serious this pattern is and the magnitude it entails.  End result will be higher costs in food and energy prices.  Some serious things to think about as we move forward.

[Niko]

Hopefully, I will surpass the 3 inches I need to break an all time record snowfall season. Currently at 90.1" for the winter season. Insane!

[MKEstorm]

i am thinking towards the 10th of april is when we will be out of this pattren.

 

Is April 10th the new March 16th?

[Tom]

Impressive run on the CFSv2 for temps in April...incredible pattern....1st 15 days of April are just as bad for it being this far out that the model is seeing.

 

Folks, I think what we are about to experience is something coming out of the move thriller..."The Day After Tomorrow"!!!!

[Money]

GFS Bufkit:

 

OSH:

 

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MKE:

 

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ORD:

 

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[Tom]

While Siberia/Europe/Russia warm, something has to give...N.A is epicenter of cold in April for the Northern Hemisphere.  This is the same type of pattern that will finish off the month of March.  Just nature's way of balancing out the weather over the years.  Now, it's the U.S. that will feel the wrath of winter in Spring.

[Jaycee]

Impressive run on the CFSv2 for temps in April...incredible pattern....1st 15 days of April are just as bad for it being this far out that the model is seeing.

 

Folks, I think what we are about to experience is something coming out of the move thriller..."The Day After Tomorrow"!!!!

http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Michael-scott-no-god-no.gif

[Geos]

also we might going throgh the final warming of the stratosphere so that means winter might come to a close by the first of april.

 

It has to propagate down though in order to have an effect on the troposphere. That's what's I'm saying.

I don't see it has completed that yet.

[East Dubzz]

 

 

Impressive run on the CFSv2 for temps in April...incredible pattern....1st 15 days of April are just as bad for it being this far out that the model is seeing.

 

Folks, I think what we are about to experience is something coming out of the move thriller..."The Day After Tomorrow"!!!!

YESSSSS!!!!!

[Geos]

Impressive run on the CFSv2 for temps in April...incredible terrible pattern....1st 15 days of April are just as bad for it being this far out that the model is seeing.

 

Folks, I think what we are about to experience is something coming out of the move thriller..."The Day After Tomorrow"!!!!

 

Fixed 

 

You can see there is a disconnect between the troposphere and stratosphere. Stratosphere vectors are pointing towards the pole, but not closer to the surface.

 

 

Currently, I am skeptical of the warming affecting the troposphere. ...Until there is a clear connection from top to bottom towards the North Pole.

[tim the weatherman]

Fixed 

 

You can see there is a disconnect between the troposphere and stratosphere. Stratosphere vectors are pointing towards the pole, but not closer to the surface.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/epflux/images/latest.png

 

Currently, I am skeptical of the warming affecting the troposphere. ...Until there is a clear connection from top to bottom towards the North Pole.

this might be happening that the polar vortex might be moving to the northpole.

[Geos]

Tomorrow's system...

 

NAM putting down about 0.40" here. 

 

[indianajohn]

So reading all your guys posts and I am coming to the conclusion that Al Gore was lying about global warming......just saying lol

[The Snowman]

this might be happening that the polar vortex might be moving to the northpole.

Polar vortex has always been located at the North Pole- it has had pieces of itself shed off and sent to lower latitudes.

[The Snowman]

Few long range thoughts...

 

• Watch for a strong storm system between March 26th and 30th. 

• Cooler than normal weather continues to start off April.

• More seasonal temperatures possible towards Mid-April.

• The general cooler than normal pattern will most likely persist through the entire season of spring.

[Tom]

Al Gore is a crook, just like the rest of the Global Warming agenda.  They are trying to heist the entire globe by creating a global Carbon Tax that will generate billions of dollars and deposit those profits in the World Bank and IMF.  If you knew the real truth about this agenda it would make you sick to your stomach.

[Money]

Yup. There is no proof behind global warming at all. The temp has actually trended less warmer than what they thought and has really slowed over the last 10-15 years.

[indianajohn]

Sorry Tom didn't mean to get you fired up was just many a joke lol

[Tom]

It's all good buddy!  I'm not getting fired up, just giving you my 2 cents.  More and more ppl are waking up now and realizing that this is just a myth.  I'm concerned that Skilling still believes in the hype as he mentions it on occasion in his weather segments.

[Geos]

Al Gore is a crook, just like the rest of the Global Warming agenda.  They are trying to heist the entire globe by creating a global Carbon Tax that will generate billions of dollars and deposit those profits in the World Bank and IMF.  If you knew the real truth about this agenda it would make you sick to your stomach.

 

I'd like to see him comment on the climate right about now!

[james1976]

I've never believed in global warming. How can you with these type of winters?