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December 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 11:54 AM

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Figured a December thread should be started given the potentially interesting opening to the month. A lot of the region that our sub covers will open up the month of December with a strong storm system. However, the type of precipitation the people in this sub will see is very up in the air. Warm air could prove to be a major issue and a heartbreaker for many people in this sub. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best is gonna be the motto here over the next few days while models get their s**t together.

 

CMC, notice how it precisely mimics last night's Euro:

Attached File  CMC 1.png   383.34KB   1 downloads

 

GFS: 

Attached File  GFS 1.png   456.14KB   1 downloads

Attached File  GFS 2.png   437.39KB   1 downloads

 

Euro:

Attached File  Euro 2.png   543.31KB   1 downloads

Attached File  Euro 3.png   406.45KB   1 downloads

 

Ukie: 

Attached File  post-142-0-90525000-1543260096.gif   152.97KB   2 downloads


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#2
Stormhunter87

Posted 26 November 2018 - 12:23 PM

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Not going to get my hopes up for this next storm. I would love and I80 storm but we shall see. There was a hint of another one after this storm too towards the end of the next week. Side note was talking with the old man he said he loved the ukie model when we were stationed in England in the early 90s. Also they ended up with 6inches. They are about 30 mins north of Columbia.
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#3
james1976

Posted 26 November 2018 - 12:25 PM

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What's temps on Ukie? Looks way south so I'm assuming cold.

#4
jcwxguy

Posted 26 November 2018 - 12:30 PM

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For reference to last storm, euro was about 30-40 miles too far north but did have a few runs off by more

#5
CentralNebWeather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 12:35 PM

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I would think that December will be a wild month.  As disappointing as it was to miss the last storm, I am sitting on about 14" so far for the month of November, way above average, (3 different snow events to get to that amount).  


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#6
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 01:26 PM

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What's temps on Ukie? Looks way south so I'm assuming cold.

Temp maps only go out 72 hours. But the map I posted in here would indicate cold.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#7
earthandturf

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:03 PM

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Which model came the closest with this last storm? 



#8
jcwxguy

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Which model came the closest with this last storm?

Euro
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#9
mlgamer

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:21 PM

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Here in Topeka, KS we already have more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). I picked up 6" at my house in the blizzard. It's nice to FINALLY get a decent storm through here! I'm optimistic this year's pattern could be productive for a large part of the sub. Hope it pans out.


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#10
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:27 PM

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No key difference between 12Z and 18Z GFS besides being a tad South with the secondary wave.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#11
Tom

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:38 PM

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Euro


3 days out, the Euro/Ukie did the best IMO.
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#12
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:39 PM

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Here in Topeka, KS we already have more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). I picked up 6" at my house in the blizzard. It's nice to FINALLY get a decent storm through here! I'm optimistic this year's pattern could be productive for a large part of the sub. Hope it pans out.

You have more snow this year than St. Paul and Fargo. I have more snow than those two combined. What a year.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#13
mlgamer

Posted 26 November 2018 - 02:55 PM

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You have more snow this year than St. Paul and Fargo. I have more snow than those two combined. What a year.

 

I had it in the back of mind that the northern plains had been pretty quiet so far, so that's interesting.  They really need to step it up building a good snowpack to keep the air cold for the rest of us when needed.  ;) 


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#14
Niko

Posted 26 November 2018 - 05:21 PM

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Lets go December......


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#15
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 05:33 PM

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Euro weeklies are warm overall for December, but also very wet around here. In fact, there is not one 5-day period where it advertises BN precip for here. Now let's hope that falls as mostly snow cuz nothing is a bigger buzzkill than rain in December. 

 

It is also very possible we could get stuck in a NW flow pattern for December, which would be shitty and unwanted.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#16
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:03 PM

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V3 with a front-end thump to start the month right. Liking the trends

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

(2" is from the Thur deal just to be clear)

 

fv3p_asnow_us_25.png


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#17
Niko

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:10 PM

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V3 with a front-end thump to start the month right. Liking the trends

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

(2" is from the Thur deal just to be clear)

 

fv3p_asnow_us_25.png

I like it



#18
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:11 PM

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:lol: never seen this. and the 4-6th bears watching around here. A tick south and it's kismet all over again

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#19
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:16 PM

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Storms, storms, and rumors of storms. OMG at the potential line-up taking the field. Cannot remember seeing this kind of S Stream wave action. At least since Jan-Feb '82


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#20
Niko

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:23 PM

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Storms, storms, and rumors of storms. OMG at the potential line-up taking the field. Cannot remember seeing this kind of S Stream wave action. At least since Jan-Feb '82

Hope my area is as good as urs sound Amigo!!! :D



#21
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:43 PM

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18z GEFS for the weekender. Plenty of spread at the moment but nominal track looks repeat-ish of yesterday.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Hope my area is as good as urs sound Amigo!!! :D

 

December always treats SEMI better. It's the first month of real winter possibilities during most years, including the better ones. Hang in there. You and that blower will get ample exercise my friend ;)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#23
Niko

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:49 PM

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December always treats SEMI better. It's the first month of real winter possibilities during most years, including the better ones. Hang in there. You and that blower will get ample exercise my friend ;)

:D



#24
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:52 PM

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V3 with split waves at h186 then merges them just over or east of the Mitt into a 982 mb powerhouse. Heads-up if those energies were to merge sooner!

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#25
Niko

Posted 26 November 2018 - 07:56 PM

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First week of December looks cold and gets very cold. Hopefully, a storm develops and crashes w the arctic air in place. Need to start getting all out snowstorms from start to finish in Dec.


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#26
East Dubzz

Posted 26 November 2018 - 08:07 PM

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Well, the GFS does still have the storm. Warm and pretty weak, but it’s there.

#27
Money

Posted 26 November 2018 - 08:27 PM

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Icon and GFS looks nearly identical. Takes the first system up through N IL etc as rain and then secondary system develops and produces a snow event for IA/MN/WI/NE

#28
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 November 2018 - 08:34 PM

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The pattern for this weekend is the strangest ive seen in quite some time.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#29
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:12 PM

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GFS has been holding pretty solid with its theory of a secondary wave being a bigger event here than the actual system.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#30
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:18 PM

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I must say, I have been really impressed with Cathy Zapotocny's AFDs lately. When I moved up here back in 2016, her AFDs were some of the worst. Now she's probably my favorite met there. She did a pretty good write-up today on the storm potential for next weekend, basically comparing all the models side-by-side in detail.

I wonder what happened to the Boustead/Mayes duo though. They were easily the best OAX forecasters. They had a bunch of seemingly hot takes that usually ended up being right.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#31
Money

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:24 PM

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Gfs FV3 is much colder with the first system and produces two snowstorms in 2-3 days for the MW

https://tropicaltidb...18112700&fh=174

#32
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:26 PM

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FV3 did decent with the last system. Better than the normie GFS at least. Also better with H5 levels in general.

Though I must say if this last FV3 run verifies, I'll jump in Holmes Lake naked.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#33
East Dubzz

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:30 PM

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FV3 did decent with the last system. Better than the normie GFS at least. Also better with H5 levels in general.

Though I must say if this last FV3 run verifies, I'll jump in Holmes Lake naked.


You sure? I thought the FV3 was furthest north the entire time, basically.

#34
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:39 PM

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You sure? I thought the FV3 was furthest north the entire time, basically.


Idk. I'm tired so maybe I'm thinking of something else. The H5 part of it stands though.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#35
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:44 PM

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GDPS has a combo of Euro and GFS. Moreso GFS in that it advertises a potent secondary wave. The low tracks over Pittsburg then cuts up and stalls in W IA for a bit @ 992, which would destroy the Sioux City area. It is very warm though, barely even bringing us flakes at all. Secondary wave brings most of the snow to Kansas.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#36
East Dubzz

Posted 26 November 2018 - 09:50 PM

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The last storm was being shown as warm at first too, right? If I remember correctly, models didn’t start wrapping in the colder air until they started getting a better grasp on the track.

#37
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2018 - 10:11 PM

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The last storm was being shown as warm at first too, right? If I remember correctly, models didn’t start wrapping in the colder air until they started getting a better grasp on the track.


I may be wrong, but I don't remember ptype ever being an issue for here. It was pretty well established it'd be rain changing to snow from the very beginning. Temps may have been an issue South and East of here.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#38
East Dubzz

Posted 26 November 2018 - 10:14 PM

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I may be wrong, but I don't remember ptype ever being an issue for here. It was pretty well established it'd be rain changing to snow from the very beginning. Temps may have been an issue South and East of here.


It was definitely an issue here. Not to the degree that this upcoming weekend is showing, though.

#39
East Dubzz

Posted 26 November 2018 - 10:19 PM

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Euro has a 994mb low right in northeast Iowa at Hr 120. Further east than the previous run, for sure. No idea on anything else besides that.

#40
Grizzcoat

Posted 26 November 2018 - 10:43 PM

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Euro with a good hit for NW IA - South Dakota and S.MN for the weekend system. Gully gusher further E and S.



#41
Grizzcoat

Posted 26 November 2018 - 11:01 PM

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Interesting to note that Uncle Ukie is even further S with the L than the GFS-- in Southern Illinois. The FV3 lies in the middle of the 4. Obviously big differences for precip type and even precip at this range and unless the Euro is on to something- would be the outlier at this juncture. Will be fun to follow.


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#42
Grizzcoat

Posted 26 November 2018 - 11:41 PM

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However- GEFS ensembles would suggest? that the Euro may be on to something .Attached File  gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png   128.1KB   0 downloads


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#43
Clinton

Posted 27 November 2018 - 03:51 AM

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Good morning folks, the 6z FV3-GFS seems to have a good grasp of this very short LRC (36 to 38 days) at least through Tuesday.  Look out for a very strong storm late next week moving out of Texas over the top of a deep artic air mass that we will all be locked into(the return of the central plains trough). Models have had hints of this but have not locked on to this idea yet, but it should be a dominate feature in this years cycle.


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#44
Tom

Posted 27 November 2018 - 03:57 AM

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00z EPS is really seeing snows with the first lead system across the Dakotas/MN/N NE into N WI.  In all honesty, this would be welcomed in my book bc these areas have zero snow OTG and if you want cold to "seed" future storms, you gotta have nature lay down the snow pack up north.  It's a catch 22 bc that'll mean my snow will be gone which I'll have to accept and move on to the next storm which the models, including the EPS and others, is seeing right after the first one that looks like another Plains/GL's cutter.

 

As for the GEFS, the snow shield looks a bit farther south and include parts of N IA, NE/MN/WI for the 1st storm...


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#45
Tom

Posted 27 November 2018 - 04:14 AM

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Good morning folks, the 6z FV3-GFS seems to have a good grasp of this very short LRC (36 to 38 days) at least through Tuesday.  Look out for a very strong storm late next week moving out of Texas over the top of a deep artic air mass that we will all be locked into(the return of the central plains trough). Models have had hints of this but have not locked on to this idea yet, but it should be a dominate feature in this years cycle.

 

Regarding the bolded, the return of the Polar Vortex and seeding intense arctic air into North America and across our sub should be the first real chance some peeps may get their taste of sub zero cold if there is snow OTG.  Interestingly, I know you are utilizing a short cycle, but after doing some analyzing of the LRC, I'm also coming up with a longer cycle.  For instance, this past storm did not "look" like the early Oct 7th-10th system, esp if you compared the 500mb pattern in the NE PAC and along the EC back then to what just happened.  In early Oct, we had a stout NE PAC Ridge & EC Ridge in tandem which leads me to believe this coming system may be the beginnings of LRC #2 bc it def resembles that pattern quite well.  Also, of note, back in early Oct we had a series of waves come out of the SW and this is exactly what is happening now with back-to-back storms coming out of the SW with the 2nd wave being the potential bigger one.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_19.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

 

 

Following these systems, the entire North American pattern resembles what happened post Oct 7th-10 when cold dominated and an amplified North American pattern locked in.  I'm really curious what Gary Lezak thinks about all of this.  It could be there are many "harmonic" or mini cycles repeating throughout this LRC which is why it's been so dang busy with storm systems galore.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

GEFS are starting to see another bigger perturbed Polar Vortex as we open Decembrrrrr....this screams major arctic cold to invade the CONUS.

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_19.png


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#46
Tom

Posted 27 November 2018 - 04:35 AM

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Early on in the LRC, there were parts of the LRC which showed a "La Nina" flavor and if you are to believe the overall pattern is cycling, then we are likely to see the central CONUS trough to open December through the first couple weeks of the month.  I've been using this techinique for a while and it has been rock solid in terms of predicting where troughs/ridges are to develop.  The big signal I read from the maps below is a signal to look for a ridge to develop near or close to the EC Week 2-3.

 

Look at the blossoming warming in the SE/EC at 10mb....while big cooling across NW NAMER....

 

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

Same signal is showing up at 30mb which began around the 19th of Nov which correlates 2-3 weeks into the future....Dec 4th and beyond...

 

 

 

temp30anim.gif


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#47
Clinton

Posted 27 November 2018 - 05:12 AM

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Unfortunately Gary isn't publicly confirming the cycle length for us right now.  There seems to be an issue with another meteorologist in Joplin, MO that is using his theory and claiming it as his own.  Tom your maps show a great point and very well may be right.  It is very possible that I picked up on a harmonic and the actual cycle length is much longer.  There are so many storms this year it can be quite confusing.


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#48
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 05:21 AM

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Guy that filled in for PP on AccuwX Long Range thinks in early DEC will be cold followed by above avg temps and then maybe the Polar Vortex being dislodged for the end of the month. PP and his team have most of us reading this above avg for the month of DEC but they are concerned about exactly the length and strength of the warmup.  An update is supposed to be released today.


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#49
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:15 AM

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Guy that filled in for PP on AccuwX Long Range thinks in early DEC will be cold followed by above avg temps and then maybe the Polar Vortex being dislodged for the end of the month. PP and his team have most of us reading this above avg for the month of DEC but they are concerned about exactly the length and strength of the warmup. An update is supposed to be released today.


After seeing the Euro weeklies, I can see where he's coming from. It'll be above average while snowpack builds up to our North.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#50
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:19 AM

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NWS Hastings thinks the Friday/Saturday storm will be mostly rain here as the snow goes farther north.  However, they said the 2nd storm should be colder and snowy in the Central Plains according to that meteorologist.  


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