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December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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Figured a December thread should be started given the potentially interesting opening to the month. A lot of the region that our sub covers will open up the month of December with a strong storm system. However, the type of precipitation the people in this sub will see is very up in the air. Warm air could prove to be a major issue and a heartbreaker for many people in this sub. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best is gonna be the motto here over the next few days while models get their s**t together.

 

CMC, notice how it precisely mimics last night's Euro:

CMC 1.png

 

GFS: 

GFS 1.png

GFS 2.png

 

Euro:

Euro 2.png

Euro 3.png

 

Ukie: 

post-142-0-90525000-1543260096.gif

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Not going to get my hopes up for this next storm. I would love and I80 storm but we shall see. There was a hint of another one after this storm too towards the end of the next week. Side note was talking with the old man he said he loved the ukie model when we were stationed in England in the early 90s. Also they ended up with 6inches. They are about 30 mins north of Columbia.

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Here in Topeka, KS we already have more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). I picked up 6" at my house in the blizzard. It's nice to FINALLY get a decent storm through here! I'm optimistic this year's pattern could be productive for a large part of the sub. Hope it pans out.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Here in Topeka, KS we already have more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). I picked up 6" at my house in the blizzard. It's nice to FINALLY get a decent storm through here! I'm optimistic this year's pattern could be productive for a large part of the sub. Hope it pans out.

You have more snow this year than St. Paul and Fargo. I have more snow than those two combined. What a year.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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You have more snow this year than St. Paul and Fargo. I have more snow than those two combined. What a year.

 

I had it in the back of mind that the northern plains had been pretty quiet so far, so that's interesting.  They really need to step it up building a good snowpack to keep the air cold for the rest of us when needed.  ;) 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Euro weeklies are warm overall for December, but also very wet around here. In fact, there is not one 5-day period where it advertises BN precip for here. Now let's hope that falls as mostly snow cuz nothing is a bigger buzzkill than rain in December. 

 

It is also very possible we could get stuck in a NW flow pattern for December, which would be shitty and unwanted.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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V3 with a front-end thump to start the month right. Liking the trends

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

(2" is from the Thur deal just to be clear)

 

fv3p_asnow_us_25.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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V3 with a front-end thump to start the month right. Liking the trends

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

(2" is from the Thur deal just to be clear)

 

fv3p_asnow_us_25.png

I like it

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:lol: never seen this. and the 4-6th bears watching around here. A tick south and it's kismet all over again

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Storms, storms, and rumors of storms. OMG at the potential line-up taking the field. Cannot remember seeing this kind of S Stream wave action. At least since Jan-Feb '82

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Storms, storms, and rumors of storms. OMG at the potential line-up taking the field. Cannot remember seeing this kind of S Stream wave action. At least since Jan-Feb '82

Hope my area is as good as urs sound Amigo!!! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18z GEFS for the weekender. Plenty of spread at the moment but nominal track looks repeat-ish of yesterday.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hope my area is as good as urs sound Amigo!!! :D

 

December always treats SEMI better. It's the first month of real winter possibilities during most years, including the better ones. Hang in there. You and that blower will get ample exercise my friend ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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December always treats SEMI better. It's the first month of real winter possibilities during most years, including the better ones. Hang in there. You and that blower will get ample exercise my friend ;)

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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V3 with split waves at h186 then merges them just over or east of the Mitt into a 982 mb powerhouse. Heads-up if those energies were to merge sooner!

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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First week of December looks cold and gets very cold. Hopefully, a storm develops and crashes w the arctic air in place. Need to start getting all out snowstorms from start to finish in Dec.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I must say, I have been really impressed with Cathy Zapotocny's AFDs lately. When I moved up here back in 2016, her AFDs were some of the worst. Now she's probably my favorite met there. She did a pretty good write-up today on the storm potential for next weekend, basically comparing all the models side-by-side in detail.

 

I wonder what happened to the Boustead/Mayes duo though. They were easily the best OAX forecasters. They had a bunch of seemingly hot takes that usually ended up being right.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GDPS has a combo of Euro and GFS. Moreso GFS in that it advertises a potent secondary wave. The low tracks over Pittsburg then cuts up and stalls in W IA for a bit @ 992, which would destroy the Sioux City area. It is very warm though, barely even bringing us flakes at all. Secondary wave brings most of the snow to Kansas.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The last storm was being shown as warm at first too, right? If I remember correctly, models didn’t start wrapping in the colder air until they started getting a better grasp on the track.

I may be wrong, but I don't remember ptype ever being an issue for here. It was pretty well established it'd be rain changing to snow from the very beginning. Temps may have been an issue South and East of here.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I may be wrong, but I don't remember ptype ever being an issue for here. It was pretty well established it'd be rain changing to snow from the very beginning. Temps may have been an issue South and East of here.

It was definitely an issue here. Not to the degree that this upcoming weekend is showing, though.

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