Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Figured a December thread should be started given the potentially interesting opening to the month. A lot of the region that our sub covers will open up the month of December with a strong storm system. However, the type of precipitation the people in this sub will see is very up in the air. Warm air could prove to be a major issue and a heartbreaker for many people in this sub. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best is gonna be the motto here over the next few days while models get their s**t together. CMC, notice how it precisely mimics last night's Euro: GFS: Euro: Ukie: 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Not going to get my hopes up for this next storm. I would love and I80 storm but we shall see. There was a hint of another one after this storm too towards the end of the next week. Side note was talking with the old man he said he loved the ukie model when we were stationed in England in the early 90s. Also they ended up with 6inches. They are about 30 mins north of Columbia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 What's temps on Ukie? Looks way south so I'm assuming cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 For reference to last storm, euro was about 30-40 miles too far north but did have a few runs off by more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I would think that December will be a wild month. As disappointing as it was to miss the last storm, I am sitting on about 14" so far for the month of November, way above average, (3 different snow events to get to that amount). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 What's temps on Ukie? Looks way south so I'm assuming cold.Temp maps only go out 72 hours. But the map I posted in here would indicate cold. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Which model came the closest with this last storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Which model came the closest with this last storm? Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Here in Topeka, KS we already have more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). I picked up 6" at my house in the blizzard. It's nice to FINALLY get a decent storm through here! I'm optimistic this year's pattern could be productive for a large part of the sub. Hope it pans out. 7 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 No key difference between 12Z and 18Z GFS besides being a tad South with the secondary wave. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro3 days out, the Euro/Ukie did the best IMO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Here in Topeka, KS we already have more snow this winter (8.5″) than any of the three previous winters (4.9″, 6.6″, 8.1″). I picked up 6" at my house in the blizzard. It's nice to FINALLY get a decent storm through here! I'm optimistic this year's pattern could be productive for a large part of the sub. Hope it pans out.You have more snow this year than St. Paul and Fargo. I have more snow than those two combined. What a year. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 You have more snow this year than St. Paul and Fargo. I have more snow than those two combined. What a year. I had it in the back of mind that the northern plains had been pretty quiet so far, so that's interesting. They really need to step it up building a good snowpack to keep the air cold for the rest of us when needed. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Lets go December...... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro weeklies are warm overall for December, but also very wet around here. In fact, there is not one 5-day period where it advertises BN precip for here. Now let's hope that falls as mostly snow cuz nothing is a bigger buzzkill than rain in December. It is also very possible we could get stuck in a NW flow pattern for December, which would be shitty and unwanted. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 V3 with a front-end thump to start the month right. Liking the trends (2" is from the Thur deal just to be clear) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 V3 with a front-end thump to start the month right. Liking the trends (2" is from the Thur deal just to be clear) I like it Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 never seen this. and the 4-6th bears watching around here. A tick south and it's kismet all over again Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Storms, storms, and rumors of storms. OMG at the potential line-up taking the field. Cannot remember seeing this kind of S Stream wave action. At least since Jan-Feb '82 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Storms, storms, and rumors of storms. OMG at the potential line-up taking the field. Cannot remember seeing this kind of S Stream wave action. At least since Jan-Feb '82Hope my area is as good as urs sound Amigo!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 18z GEFS for the weekender. Plenty of spread at the moment but nominal track looks repeat-ish of yesterday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Hope my area is as good as urs sound Amigo!!! December always treats SEMI better. It's the first month of real winter possibilities during most years, including the better ones. Hang in there. You and that blower will get ample exercise my friend 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 December always treats SEMI better. It's the first month of real winter possibilities during most years, including the better ones. Hang in there. You and that blower will get ample exercise my friend Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 V3 with split waves at h186 then merges them just over or east of the Mitt into a 982 mb powerhouse. Heads-up if those energies were to merge sooner! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 First week of December looks cold and gets very cold. Hopefully, a storm develops and crashes w the arctic air in place. Need to start getting all out snowstorms from start to finish in Dec. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Well, the GFS does still have the storm. Warm and pretty weak, but it’s there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Icon and GFS looks nearly identical. Takes the first system up through N IL etc as rain and then secondary system develops and produces a snow event for IA/MN/WI/NE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The pattern for this weekend is the strangest ive seen in quite some time. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 GFS has been holding pretty solid with its theory of a secondary wave being a bigger event here than the actual system. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I must say, I have been really impressed with Cathy Zapotocny's AFDs lately. When I moved up here back in 2016, her AFDs were some of the worst. Now she's probably my favorite met there. She did a pretty good write-up today on the storm potential for next weekend, basically comparing all the models side-by-side in detail. I wonder what happened to the Boustead/Mayes duo though. They were easily the best OAX forecasters. They had a bunch of seemingly hot takes that usually ended up being right. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Gfs FV3 is much colder with the first system and produces two snowstorms in 2-3 days for the MW https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018112700&fh=174 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 FV3 did decent with the last system. Better than the normie GFS at least. Also better with H5 levels in general. Though I must say if this last FV3 run verifies, I'll jump in Holmes Lake naked. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 FV3 did decent with the last system. Better than the normie GFS at least. Also better with H5 levels in general. Though I must say if this last FV3 run verifies, I'll jump in Holmes Lake naked.You sure? I thought the FV3 was furthest north the entire time, basically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 You sure? I thought the FV3 was furthest north the entire time, basically.Idk. I'm tired so maybe I'm thinking of something else. The H5 part of it stands though. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 GDPS has a combo of Euro and GFS. Moreso GFS in that it advertises a potent secondary wave. The low tracks over Pittsburg then cuts up and stalls in W IA for a bit @ 992, which would destroy the Sioux City area. It is very warm though, barely even bringing us flakes at all. Secondary wave brings most of the snow to Kansas. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The last storm was being shown as warm at first too, right? If I remember correctly, models didn’t start wrapping in the colder air until they started getting a better grasp on the track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The last storm was being shown as warm at first too, right? If I remember correctly, models didn’t start wrapping in the colder air until they started getting a better grasp on the track.I may be wrong, but I don't remember ptype ever being an issue for here. It was pretty well established it'd be rain changing to snow from the very beginning. Temps may have been an issue South and East of here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I may be wrong, but I don't remember ptype ever being an issue for here. It was pretty well established it'd be rain changing to snow from the very beginning. Temps may have been an issue South and East of here.It was definitely an issue here. Not to the degree that this upcoming weekend is showing, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro has a 994mb low right in northeast Iowa at Hr 120. Further east than the previous run, for sure. No idea on anything else besides that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro with a good hit for NW IA - South Dakota and S.MN for the weekend system. Gully gusher further E and S. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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