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December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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There was heavy frost everywhere on the way to the gym this morning. The bare ground is definitely cooling off significantly without any snow OTG. It’s frozen solid and hopefully it won’t warm up to much just beneath the surface after this weeks warmth. Some models continue to show a weak disturbance tracking across the area on Wed that may spit out some light snow.

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There was heavy frost everywhere on the way to the gym this morning. The bare ground is definitely cooling off significantly without any snow OTG. It’s frozen solid and hopefully it won’t warm up to much just beneath the surface after this weeks warmth. Some models continue to show a weak disturbance tracking across the area on Wed that may spit out some light snow.

There was heavy frost here as well. Everything covered in white. It looked like a snowstorm had occurred. Bottomed out at 12F. Definitely puts you in that Christmas spirit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Whoa! Bottomed out at 10 deg's here in Marshall. No wonder my furnace was working OT. Finally, a truly COLD over-night here in far SMI.  Grid that had 36F for my high today under sunshine is now down to 31F. That's quite the drop for a temp-cast within 24 hrs, especially not being The Plains. Wonder what GRR missed with the original call? Next 4 days showing mid-upper 30's and with the low sun angle it's likely 75% or more of hours will be AOB freezing. Latest guidance seems to be removing the heavy rainer next Fri/Sat and instead tracking that across Dixie right where the snowstorm is hitting. That'll be ugly for them if it goes that way.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Whoa! Bottomed out at 10 deg's here in Marshall. No wonder my furnace was working OT. Finally, a truly COLD over-night here in far SMI.  Grid that had 36F for my high today under sunshine is now down to 31F. That's quite the drop for a temp-cast within 24 hrs, especially not being The Plains. Wonder what GRR missed with the original call? Next 4 days showing mid-upper 30's and with the low sun angle it's likely 75% or more of hours will be AOB freezing. Latest guidance seems to be removing the heavy rainer next Fri/Sat and instead tracking that across Dixie right where the snowstorm is hitting. That'll be ugly for them if it goes that way.

Yup.....now my forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps. Also, things looks to get interesting on or after the 20th. Gear up and get ready........fun times ahead for a lot of us on here after this temporarily relaxation.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Watching Bastardi's Sat update and his temp departure maps comparing autumn '02 and this one. Very very similar 2 month period of chill, followed in Dec by a warm spell. The '02 warm spell lasted 3 wks (12/15 to 1/4/03) and when it ended the storm track wasn't very favorable for Marshall and SWMI. It was favorable for Detroit and OH tho.

 

Comparing that Nov snowfall at Battle Creek (which wasn't bad with 6.8") to this year's record of 24.1" gives me hope that while the two years may compare in SST pattern and temp trends, the net outcome may be better in terms of precip and snowfall. Certainly, this autumn here (post 11/9) has been even colder than '02, and the warm spell is looking less mild as well.

 

One thing I would repeat about Dec of 2002 is the 7.8" storm total recorded for Christmas Day! That was a perfectly timed storm right in the midst of the "warm up". I remember the forecast had that all staying two states south of us. It was a surprise holiday gift when the snow shield came way up here instead.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I know it's a LONG way out but GFS dropping the hammer just in time for the Winter Solstice. Nice bowling ball system around the 21st and a Christmas day storm showing up. A lot of cold too. Lines up with what Tom has been saying. Couple weeks out yet so we'll have to see how it transpires.

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Driving home last night after some shopping, I noticed plenty more houses that were decorated with Christmas lights and decor. The late stragglers had ideal weather this weekend to put up their decorations. Now you can say, my neighborhood is looking more like the holidays...all we need is a fresh blanket of snow. Speaking of snow, although there are minimal chances this coming week, I'm still encouraged to see the ensembles suggesting a favorable pattern just before the Winter Solstice. By the way, isn't it ironic, just as we transition into the official Winter season on the 21st, all the way across the Pole in Eurasia, a major disruption of the Polar Vortex will be underway and likely the cattle prod that sets off an onslaught of Ol' Man Winter on this side of the Pole to close out December.

 

Check out both the GEPS/GEFS 10mb heights animations....

January is going to be stupidly cold. I'm already lockin that one in. :)

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I know it's a LONG way out but GFS dropping the hammer just in time for the Winter Solstice. Nice bowling ball system around the 21st and a Christmas day storm showing up. A lot of cold too. Lines up with what Tom has been saying. Couple weeks out yet so we'll have to see how it transpires.

 

1) I think it's legit and Tom's post on the EAR was spot on.

2) Too soon to tell winners and losers with the initial system ofc. Some of us could still get our Christmas rained on.

3) The bowling ball system would be the best way to avoid the haves and have-nots and gets my vote.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Watching Bastardi's Sat update and his temp departure maps comparing autumn '02 and this one. Very very similar 2 month period of chill, followed in Dec by a warm spell. The '02 warm spell lasted 3 wks (12/15 to 1/4/03) and when it ended the storm track wasn't very favorable for Marshall and SWMI. It was favorable for Detroit and OH tho.

 

Comparing that Nov snowfall at Battle Creek (which wasn't bad with 6.8") to this year's record of 24.1" gives me hope that while the two years may compare in SST pattern and temp trends, the net outcome may be better in terms of precip and snowfall. Certainly, this autumn here (post 11/9) has been even colder than '02, and the warm spell is looking less mild as well.

 

One thing I would repeat about Dec of 2002 is the 7.8" storm total recorded for Christmas Day! That was a perfectly timed storm right in the midst of the "warm up". I remember the forecast had that all staying two states south of us. It was a surprise holiday gift when the snow shield came way up here instead.

Your conundrum of sorts is solved by blending back in 2000-01 and some of 2010-11. We're a month or so ahead like 2000 but with weather similar to 2010-11 at this time, in my opinion.

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NOAA:

 

The latest ECMWF solution
is keeping the more south track seen in the past few cycles and
largely misses our area, while the GFS and Canadian show a
trajectory into the eastern Great Lakes which gives the chance for
some precipitation here.

 

If we do get moisture, it will be rain.  Looks interesting after the 20th though.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Haha. GRR had a storm report of 10" from Podunk Lake, but this one from VA may even beat that for anecdotal humor award:

 

 

000
NWUS51 KRNK 092222
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM SNOW 2 WSW WILLIAMSBURG 37.95N 80.53W
12/09/2018 E10.0 INCH GREENBRIER WV PUBLIC

REPORTED AT CORNSTALK, WV.


&&

$

AL

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL. It's becoming comical how many times I've had snow falling at 7 am this young winter. GFS says here's some more Thurs morning

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL. It's becoming comical how many times I've had snow falling at 7 am this young winter. GFS says here's some more Thurs morning

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

:blink:

 

I'd be paying attn more at that low showing down in Amarillo, TX, No?!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like another cold nite w temps falling into the teens once again. Although, not nearly as cold as last nite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Your conundrum of sorts is solved by blending back in 2000-01 and some of 2010-11. We're a month or so ahead like 2000 but with weather similar to 2010-11 at this time, in my opinion.

 

Thanks for this. Dec '00 was off the charts here. '10-11 wasn't so stellar, but I see where you're going with it and agree. I doubt we've seen a winter with so much S Stream action in a long long time so it's hard to find an exact analog example tbh.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like another cold nite w temps falling into the teens once again. Although, not nearly as cold as last nite.

 

Already beating my grid-cast "low" of 21F with a stout 19F. Nice to be busting low for a change.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not a single drop of precip on Euro over the next 10 days, minus possibly a bit of light rain on Wednesday night.

 

This is not only a relaxing of the cold, it's like somebody switched on a wx force field across our sub. At least I now have SHSN likely Wed night.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Already beating my grid-cast "low" of 21F with a stout 19F. Nice to be busting low for a change.

Same here...each nite they lower my temps at least 2-4 degrees from the previous forecast low temp.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Sitting at 22F right now. Temps are dropping like a rock.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I agree 100%.  I think it will be one that we remember for a long time.

Gear up...Wild weather is coming. Enjoy this relaxation... ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Was down to 18F when they raised my low to 23F. :huh:

 

Technically, this is still today but still, they coulda used that little arrow when temps will rise overnight.

 

ASOS reporting "mist and fog" and 20F. Again :huh:  wouldn't that be freezing fog??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gear up...Wild weather is coming. Enjoy this relaxation... ;)

 

I'm sure it is for somebody. Hey, GDR's screen cap of the GFS looks choice for The Mitt, eh? I know that wasn't his point tho

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm sure it is for somebody. Hey, GDR's screen cap of the GFS looks choice for The Mitt, eh? I know that wasn't his point tho

I dont think I trust the GFS that much. I prefer the Euro and the NAM.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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ASOS reporting "mist and fog" and 20F. Again :huh:  wouldn't that be freezing fog??

Was editing my post and some how deleted it all.

 

What is likely happening here is that ASOS is picking up BR - but it's being shown via Accwx or whatever source to a media device as "light fog". (usually under 5SM VIS from experience)  There is no such thing as -FG when it comes to an official metar transmission, much like there is no "Flurries" - just very -SN.   ASOS will show mist (BR) as an obscuration whenever the T/D separation is less then 4F AND the VIS is less than 7SM. Greater than 4F T/D it will be HAZE (HZ) or less than 5/8SM-  the BR becomes FG.. There is no such thing as "FG BR" when it comes to Metars per the 7900.5D. ( the guide book provided by the FAA for Metars)  Most ASOS's will now report FZFG when the conditions are met for FG and with temp below 0C. No AWOS do as far as I know. Very rarely do you hear mention of freezing mist when prevailing VIS is greater than 1/2SM but less than 7SM and T/D separation of 4 or less and temps below 0C - but that is exactly what it is.

A question I would like answered from the NWS is why do some offices issues a Dense Fog Advisory with temps below 0C and others a Freezing Fog Advisroy??  Never figured that one out....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Was editing my post and some how deleted it all.

 

What is likely happening here is that ASOS is picking up BR - but it's being shown via Accwx or whatever source to a media device as "light fog". (usually under 5SM VIS from experience)  There is no such thing as -FG when it comes to an official metar transmission, much like there is no "Flurries" - just very -SN.   ASOS will show mist (BR) as an obscuration whenever the T/D separation is less then 4F AND the VIS is less than 7SM. Greater than 4F T/D it will be HAZE (HZ) or less than 5/8SM-  the BR becomes FG.. There is no such thing as "FG BR" when it comes to Metars per the 7900.5D. ( the guide book provided by the FAA for Metars)  Most ASOS's will now report FZFG when the conditions are met for FG and with temp below 0C. No AWOS do as far as I know. Very rarely do you hear mention of freezing mist when prevailing VIS is greater than 1/2SM but less than 7SM and T/D separation of 4 or less and temps below 0C - but that is exactly what it is.

A question I would like answered from the NWS is why do some offices issues a Dense Fog Advisory with temps below 0C and others a Freezing Fog Advisroy??  Never figured that one out....

 

Thx for that break down Grizz. I'm getting my obs directly on the NWS site. Visibility didn't indicate true foggy conditions. My main point was simply that if there was moisture of any form, at 18 or 20F it'd be frozen/freezing. 

 

20181209 KRMY Obs.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently at 24 w cloudy skies. Looks like some rain possible by weeks end and temps warm up nicely into the 40s for several days.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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January is going to be stupidly cold. I'm already lockin that one in. :)

I think North Texas will be joining that party. I'm wondering if this will be another winter when Corpus Christie sees its rare snow on the beach ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I am surprised we still have a solid 3" snow cover.  There are a few places that are starting to melt a little and warmer weather later this week should melt off everything except the piles and some of the drifts in the road ditches.  Pretty boring stretch of weather, hoping for Dec. 23rd on when we get back into some exciting times.

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Thanks for this. Dec '00 was off the charts here. '10-11 wasn't so stellar, but I see where you're going with it and agree. I doubt we've seen a winter with so much S Stream action in a long long time so it's hard to find an exact analog example tbh.

The fluctuations (crashes) in ENSO 1, 1.2 are the hat tip to those seasons. Just enough tropical flux there to get the cold to crash in, then the moisture follows. It's like a war between a Niña and a Niño. It's going to be perfect.

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Temps are remaining fairly uniform, in the mid 20s w cloudy skies.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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