December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

I'm only at 5.3" on the season so far. That was all Nov. Well maybe a few tenths right at the beginning of Dec. I'd have to go back and check.

[Tom]

What's interesting is that should the much anticipated pattern change not occur or deliver around these parts, our historic December to remember could actually make another run at the least snowiest December.  Not sure if Tom or anyone knows where Chicago is officially at or that the record is, but something to keep an eye on.

 

In other new, leaves finally starting to drop off my stubborn tree.  

Is that wind helping out today?  I'm actually plan on doing more yard work this weekend taking advantage of the warm days and clean up the aftermath from the Blizzard.  I'm not sold on the idea we end up with another Top 3 least snowiest December.  Too much on the table for the last 10 days or so of the month.  It's funny, the GEFS are gun-ho for NW Flow, while the EPS says, SW Flow during Christmas week.  Big differences and likely will continue over this week.

[BrianJK]

Is that wind helping out today? I'm actually plan on doing more yard work this weekend taking advantage of the warm days and clean up the aftermath from the Blizzard. I'm not sold on the idea we end up with another Top 3 least snowiest December. Too much on the table for the last 10 days or so of the month. It's funny, the GEFS are gun-ho for NW Flow, while the EPS says, SW Flow during Christmas week. Big differences and likely will continue over this week.

Yes definitely helping, finally. What was crazy was even during the blizzard, they just refused to drop - very bizarre. Good weekend coming up for some much needed cleanup for sure.

 

Yeah It’s really up in the air for the last 1/3 of the month. Thinking Another 5 days or so until the picture becomes a little more clear.

[Stacsh]

Squall moving across the lake like a thunderstorm right at SWMI.  will it be rain or snow? or a mix?

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow the models are quiet.  Not showing anything around here for 10-15 days.  Sure hope that changes.  Relatives coming next week from KC were hoping to play in the snow, but that will be a thing of the past here in a few days.  Hopefully not singing "I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas" but going to need that pattern change after the 21st.  

[BrianJK]

I picked a great year to move here! Lol ugh, maybe i'm the jinx.

Nah, I don’t think so. We’ve never had a November like that in a very long time. I know you are in a microclimate living by the lake, but most of surrounding Chicago received about 15”.

 

And as for December’s... this has been the norm for a while now. I’m not even sure we’ve had a combined 10” of snow in the last 3-4 Decembers when totaled all together.

 

Hoping things change, and soon...

[Stacsh]

GRR today. Should be all snow. It was all rain with temps near 40. Fail

[jaster220]

Another cold day (32F for a high) and the last 3 were expected to be well above freezing. Even with warm lows, we're stringing a week of BN avg's.

 

While my NWS office is not too bullish on tomorrow's little wave, these maps indicate a possible front and back side snowy period. Will be nice to at least see flakes, and minor accum's not outta the question here.

 

20181211 Intellicast h24 surf.GIF

 

20181211 Intellicast h36 surf.GIF

 

GRR today. Should be all snow. It was all rain with temps near 40. Fail

 

Yep, was just gonna post what a miserable FAIL those maps were. Thermals ended up much warmer than expected. When last night's NAM had the snow in NMI I was concerned. Oh well, not like missing a foot or something

[Niko]

I was forecasted an 0.5" to an inch and I currently have clear skies. Not a flurry fell. Pathetic pattern. I said this a million times and I will say this again, you get a snowy November, you have a crappy December.

 

FWIW: My local forecaster just said that the remainder of December goes by dry and cold in his extended outlook. Not sure I buy that, but we will see.

 

I.E., Montreal, CA lows tanite will dip down to ZERO!!!! Meanwhile, rain is in their forecast by Friday w temps in the upper 30s. Thats how bad the pattern is currently.

[Niko]

Currently, partly cloudy and temps in the 30s. (35F to be exact. Feels nice outside)

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS = TORCH through end of year. Need the MJO to quit hanging out in the warm phase. It's lasting longer than many think...

[hlcater]

18Z GFS = TORCH through end of year. Need the MJO to quit hanging out in the warm phase. It's lasting longer than many think...

Good news I guess is that eventually, most ensembles take it into neutral. This happens after christmas though.

[St Paul Storm]

When widespread freezing fog is the highlight of the next 384 hours, you know you’re pretty close to wx hell.

[jaster220]

Yep, Tom's call for a wild early start to winter verified. Act 2 was not scripted very well tho. Departure maps for November look insane and follow my seasonal outlook line of winners vs losers quite well.

 

[GDR]

[Esquimalt]

Lots of great input that's why signed up for this forum. Hating this pattern boring and warmish which if it was a day or two okay but blah. I will say the fv3 has gone crazy. A foot of snow in southern AL and LA. If that actually happened wow.

Before talking about hating this pattern, maybe think about us on the west coast who are seriously staring down the possibility of not seeing a flake this winter.  Looks to be one of the biggest duds in a long long time.  

[hlcater]

That’s a pretty miserable set of ensembles, can’t really sugar coat that.

[Minny_Weather]

That's about the worst GEFS run I've ever seen. Usually there's at least one member that's all-out Super Weenie Hut Jr.

[badgerwx]

RIP WHITE CHRISTMAS

[Andie]

A cold front moving into North Texas on Thursday afternoon will combine with rain and make for a wintry mix of rain and snow in Fort Worth and near-whiteout conditions west of Mineral Wells.

 

A winter storm watch has been issued from 3 p.m. Thursday to 9 a.m. Friday from Jacksboro to Stephenville and points westward. Some of those areas could see up to four inches of snow.

 

In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, temperatures should remain above freezing but there could be a brief rain-snow mix across the area.

 

 

DFW winds speeds will be 30-40 mph

Any accumulations will be west if the city near or west of Mineral Wells

[Madtown]

Yeah really disappointing. While I wasn't expecting a great snow year up here...6" normally isn't tooo much to ask for Dec. Warm is here and for awhile...wish it wasn't true.

[Minny_Weather]

EPS is astronomically bad for everywhere that is not in a mountain range or in Eastern Canada. Even areas of Alberta don't have 2" for a mean by the end of the run.

[Niko]

Long range is looking horrible. Storminess depicted by models for my area after the 21st have backed off now. It now shows partly cloudy. I know it can change. I guess we will see what happens. As for now, December could end up dry and cold.

[badgerwx]

There is still hope. We have 13 days to turn things around, Models change. Temps change. Let's hope the turnaround comes soon!

[Minny_Weather]

There is still hope. We have 13 days to turn things around, Models change. Temps change. Let's hope the turnaround comes soon!

If there is one area in this sub that has a decent chance for snow by the end of the month, look no farther than Wisconsin imo. The NW flow may benefit you here in the form of clippers.

[Andie]

Wow, they've upped the winds in my area to 50mph and West Tx. 50-70 mph. That's hurricane strength winds.

This should slam into us after noon. Some flurries in DFW but West Texas could see 3-4" of snow.

[Stacsh]

It could change. But looking like next Hope is Christmas and beyond.

[Grizzcoat]

JB been talking recently how enhanced Thunderstorms in Indian Ocean translate to mild conditions in our neck of the 10+ days later. Well, Bay of Bengal is about to see a tropical cyclone. Hmm.Not good.

[bud2380]

00z Euro is showing low pressure developing in Colorado on day 10. It’s a stretch but hey, it’s something

[CentralNebWeather]

00z Euro is showing low pressure developing in Colorado on day 10. It’s a stretch but hey, it’s something

Sun. Dec. 23rd.  We can hope for this Christmas miracle.  Will be interesting to see if this is a 1 time thing or if other models latch onto this.  It is something, you are correct.  

[GDR]

I wouldn’t hold your breath for a Christmas miracle! The pattern just plain sucks.

[Niko]

Cloudy w light drizzle and a temp of 33F. UGH!

[Tom]

This is the most amount of model volatility I've seen all season long.  It's interesting how earlier in the Autumn, prior to any major SSW event or enhanced MJO event, nearly all the models saw the cold coming in mid/late Oct and Nov (except the CFSv2).  However, over the past week or so, all the models have been going back and forth trying to figure out when the cold is coming back.  Kudos to the CFSv2 which has been steadfast on the mid Dec torch but I don't think it's warm during Christmas week. 

 

I knew from past experience, that during a disruption of the Polar Vortex, models tend to behave erratically so it's really not a surprise.  It also warms up quite a bit across North America when such a massive warming event at 10mb evolves across N Canada.

 

That's why I rely on the LRC and other long range tools to get an idea of what to expect in the longer range.  I will admit, the warm spell arriving this week and into next week is a little longer and stronger than I expected, although, the target period of the Winter Solstice is still in play here, where the pattern snaps out of this warm spell.  Who' ready???

 

Long ago, when the LRC was evolving I saw this pattern had a La Nina flavor to it, where we would see ridging along the EC at times. This type of pattern is going to evolve during Christmas week if you are to believe the LRC.  There are clues of this, esp when looking at the SOI index which has spiked high into the +20 range:

 

SOI values for 13 Dec, 2018

Average SOI for last 30 days 2.95

Average SOI for last 90 days 0.59

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 20.29

 

It's obviously much above its 30 day average which suggests to me to look for ridging along the EC Week 2 and a big battle zone should set up somewhere across the S Plains up into the MW/GL's/OV region during Week 2.  The trends in the EPS for week 2 are starting to look better with a SW Flow and moisture coming out of the GOM during Christmas week.  This period is when I foresee the activity to pick up and the hopes for somebody to score a White Christmas is still in play.

 

The JMA weeklies are flashing that La Nina look during Week 2 with a distinct SW Flow and wet look from the Plains and points East....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201812.D1212_gl0.png

[Tom]

No joke, I just read Gary's Blog and this is what he has to say about the pattern heading into Christmas week.  I gotta tell ya, when you listen to your intuition, good things happen.  His comments basically mirror what I have in mind.

 

 

Looking into the last week of 2018 including Christmas:

As we have been discussing for a few weeks now, the weather pattern becomes favorable for Arctic air to build up over Canada and Alaska. There will be an increasing chance of an Arctic outbreak between Christmas and New Years.  The LRC is also supportive of a few candidates for some snow around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, or a day or two later.  So, let’s pay attention to how the models start trending in this direction.  As many of you have experienced, the models are flawed, and the LRC provides the insight to know when the models are right, and when they are likely wrong.  In the past 24 hours, the models that had no hint of cold or snow have now flipped in the colder and snowier direction.  So, yes, there is a chance of a white Christmas, and we just have to see how it lines up.  I increased the chance from 25% to 30% a couple of days ago.  We will see how this trends.

I hope everyone has a great day.  Go Chiefs! And, thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

[Clinton]

No joke, I just read Gary's Blog and this is what he has to say about the pattern heading into Christmas week.  I gotta tell ya, when you listen to your intuition, good things happen.  His comments basically mirror what I have in mind.

Great job Tom and you nailed this years LRC cycle length.  So around Christmas would be the return to the Nov part of the pattern, combine that with a -AO and oh my it will be cold around New Years.  I would think many records will be set!

[Minny_Weather]

I'm not holding my breath for a major pattern change at the end of the month. We'll see what Euro weeklies have to say later on this afternoon. I'd maybe feel a bit more comfortable if the MJO wasn't the exact opposite of what we need it to be.

 

Either way, this will put the LRC concept to the test.

[Tom]

I'm not holding my breath for a major pattern change at the end of the month. We'll see what Euro weeklies have to say later on this afternoon. I'd maybe feel a bit more comfortable if the MJO wasn't the exact opposite of what we need it to be.

 

Either way, this will put the LRC concept to the test.

I agree, big test forthcoming of the LRC and the general pattern. The MJO is just an influence to the overall cyclical pattern. The storm targeting the south today and the next couple days is directly related to the mid/late Oct pattern, IMO.

[CentralNebWeather]

Boy the east coast gets hit by storm after storm on the CMC and GFS.  Some of course are rain storms.

[hlcater]

00z Euro is showing low pressure developing in Colorado on day 10. It’s a stretch but hey, it’s something

Get this: it looks like it would get squashed by CAA. Kinda has that look with the building high in BC/WA and overwhelming surface/850 NW flow behind departing low in Eastern Quebec.

[Niko]

I saw people playing golf today....