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December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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Euro Weeklies not backing down...Ol' Man Winter returns with a vengeance post Christmas storm and all through Jan (end of run)....this could end up being an epic month for cold and snow.  I bet the GL's will be on fire with LES due to the warmth we are having this month.  Blocking and an active STJ....looks interesting...

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Euro Weeklies not backing down...Ol' Man Winter returns with a vengeance post Christmas storm and all through Jan (end of run)....this could end up being an epic month for cold and snow. I bet the GL's will be on fire with LES due to the warmth we are having this month. Blocking and an active STJ....looks interesting...

I’ll believe it when I see it lol. Basically models said same thing in November about December. Looking through the November discussion. Did not materialize. El Niño controlling the pattern.

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There is now talk that the impending SSW event to be a possible record setting one.  Last year, we set records in the Strat in mid/late Feb and we know what happened in Mar/Apr.  Can you imagine what's on the table if this comes close to what the models are predicting for Jan/Feb?  

 

I keep seeing peeps refer to the great pattern post-Feb SSWE last winter but I don't know where they are talking about tbh? Just looked again at my log and it looks as dismal as I remembered. Only 1 single day in March did it remain at or below freezing, and the 4.7" snow total was actually out done during the first half of April.

 

Here's to hoping this currently expected SSWE has a much better outcome for this end of the sub! ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Going to cool off all the way down to only 5 degrees above normal Brrrr. Then we spike back up to 10-15 degrees above normal.

Bone-dry all of next week....unless something changes

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Bone-dry all of next week....unless something changes

 

Pretty yawn-worthy stretch. Usually happens when the PV goes to the dark side, lol. See 11-12 for the poster child scenario

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Bone-dry all of next week....unless something changes

 

Huh?? According to our new GRR Met, this is exciting stuff. Dude musta come from Death Valley office or something. Idk

 

 

- The active pattern will continue through the end of the year...

Stay up to date on the forecast if traveling anywhere across the

country!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For the record, I have a "non-zero" chance of seeing and possibly even measuring SNOW sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening. Ofc, I'll be busy traveling to Chicago-land in the evening so I may not even get to experience it if it does happen :lol:

 

20181220 Intellicast h48 surf.GIF

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I keep seeing peeps refer to the great pattern post-Feb SSWE last winter but I don't know where they are talking about tbh? Just looked again at my log and it looks as dismal as I remembered. Only 1 single day in March did it remain at or below freezing, and the 4.7" snow total was actually out done during the first half of April.

 

Here's to hoping this currently expected SSWE has a much better outcome for this end of the sub! ;)

Depends on your local I guess.  Areas just to our west a d north got pounded with winter storms while we just missed out.  My thoughts are that it will have a much more impactful effect during the heart of the winter months (Jan-Feb) instead of Spring months last year (Mar-Apr).  I'm still just a bit worried about suppression as we get deeper into Jan and missing out on some monsters.

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I keep seeing peeps refer to the great pattern post-Feb SSWE last winter but I don't know where they are talking about tbh? Just looked again at my log and it looks as dismal as I remembered. Only 1 single day in March did it remain at or below freezing, and the 4.7" snow total was actually out done during the first half of April.

 

Here's to hoping this currently expected SSWE has a much better outcome for this end of the sub! ;)

 

I thought I remembered being pretty pissed, because dec, jan, and feb were all pretty well below average snowfall, then we got a lot of snow in March that didn't last very long, but was enough to pad stats and make it look like last winter wasn't so bad.

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Huh?? According to our new GRR Met, this is exciting stuff. Dude musta come from Death Valley office or something. Idk

:lol:  Wish I knew what he took.....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Honestly, the next "pattern change" isn't really all too impressive. Major improvement over what we have now, yes, but it basically brings us from way above normal to near normal for a couple days, then back to slightly above normal. Whoopie. We need a pattern change within a pattern change if we want anything that resembles Winter and not March. Let's get the MJO on our side.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Happy Winter Solstice day!  Boy, the 00z EPS and 00z GEFS have decidedly trended away from each other...clearly, the GEFS are much farther S and E and quite weaker overall.  As much as I hate to say it, I'd be rooting for the EPS as we most certainly need to build up a deep snow pack up north.

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My goodness, are both the EPS/GEFS increasingly snowier/wintry to close out the month and open up January.  What a beauty of a pattern shaping up...New Year's plans anyone???  This is going to be our next storm to track following the 26th-28th system and right on schedule.  Fits the LRC and BSR like a glove....

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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My goodness, are both the EPS/GEFS increasingly snowier/wintry to close out the month and open up January. What a beauty of a pattern shaping up...New Year's plans anyone??? This is going to be our next storm to track following the 26th-28th system and right on schedule. Fits the LRC and BSR like a glove....

 

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

As the late Harry Carey would say, “holy cow”

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A good read from MPX this morning about the GFS and GEM:

The GFS and Canadian appear to have shifted so far south due to a

more progressive northern flow. This flow essentially orphans the

cyclone and allows it to take a more easterly route than a

northeasterly route. In addition, these models develop the surface

cyclone underneath or even east of the mid and upper level jet

streaks, as opposed to near the left exit regions which would be a

more meteorologically-sound result. For these reasons, the GFS and

Canadian were largely ignored for this forecast cycle. The ECMWF

is probably too far north as well, but it at least has some

continuity with itself. The FV3 (GFS parallel) has been by far the

most consistent, tracking the surface low northeast across Iowa

for each of its last 10 consecutive runs. This also fits nearly

in the center of the large envelope.

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Just like last year, when the record setting SSW event took place, the AO/NAO crashed which lead to extreme cold in Europe and eventually the U.S.  We also saw a massive Scandinavian Ridge which unleashed the "Fridge" and created a prime setup to Split the Polar Vortex.  This year, it's setting up shop once again...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_44.png

 

 

 

Of late, models are beginning to show signs of a dramatic -NAO and a Greenland Block, set to rock, as we flip the calendar into 2019.  Nice signal for a sweet looking west-based Greenland block which fits the LRC as to the placement of the blocking that has developed in LRC cycle # 1.  West-based Greenland Blocks favor our sub forum a lot better than an East-based block.  This is setting up to be a pattern we have not seen in a while.

 

To add to the favorable pattern that is poised to set up across our sub heading into Week 2, the SOI still not budging and maintaining in the (+) territory which continues to lead me to believe the SER should stay put through at least the early part of January.  The SST's have warmed quite a bit over the last 2 weeks near S. America.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

Lastly, it is now starting to look like we may in fact have a Polar Vortex Split which has been the case over the last number of years.  Earlier on, models were indicating more of a displacement but recent trends are showing otherwise.  How many times have we seen maps like these???  Those gleaming red "eye"s are showing up again....it's like the wx maps are hinting us that Ol' Man Winter is coming back....with a vengeance...not to be denied his abrupt return!

 

 

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