December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I can't hold back what I'm seeing across the N PAC and the BSR is lining up quite a parade of storms during the opening couple weeks of January.  While this particular storm is predicted to develop Day 8-10, check out this beauty of a beast targeting the Aleutians....I'll give you a clue as to what this storm fits...Nov Blizzard???  Look for it Jan 15th-18th and an ideal track across the S Plains into the MW/OV.

[FarmerRick]

No thread for this storm yet, eh?  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122106/180/sn10_acc.us_c.png

[Grizzcoat]

On mobile version, so tough to quote others, (SPS quote of MPX AFD) but oddly the Ukmet is also in line with GEM and GFS and not in step with it's big brother, the Euro.

[Grizzcoat]

^ This is something I have not seen all winter.( Euro and UKMET this far apart)

[CentralNebWeather]

I ripped on NWS Hastings yesterday morning but I will agree with them today. Models are so off of each other and change so dramatically from run to run, it is difficult to forecast. One example they mentioned was one model having the low on Wednesday 400 miles difference in location from one run to the next run.

[Clinton]

Fv3 also has a new years day storm

Lezak in his blogs has said he expects the second storm.

[Andie]

^ This is something I have not seen all winter.( Euro and UKMET this far apart)

You know Grizz, as a non weather tech person, I've been observing how this winter is behaving curiously like 2009 in the Southern Plains. I'm expecting some serious cold and snow potential for Texas.

 

We've received 61.1" of rainfall in Ft. Worth so far this year. This is almost double our average rainfall and a great deal of moisture in the southern atmosphere. We're currently in our "Christmas break" weatherwise with mild temps and partly cloudy skies, but Texas has a way of lulling you into a false comfort zone just before it kicks your arse.

 

This is MY forecast for January as verily I say, arses shall be kicked! The south will see some action from this weather washing machine action

It's just a matter of time.

[Niko]

Cloudy and dismal w temps in the 30s. Roads are wet.

[CentralNebWeather]

For all of my forum friends who I have never personally met, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.  You are like family to me.  May the season bring you happiness, peace, and snow.

[Minny_Weather]

I have a gut feeling like the 06Z FV3's scenario is PROBABLY what's going to happen. Starting off with a bit of slop here then changing over to all rain for the rest of the storm.I wouldn't mind that, either. That'd make the 27th less painful of a traveling day for me, and it would build the snowpack up North.

[CentralNebWeather]

I have a gut feeling like the 06Z FV3's scenario is PROBABLY what's going to happen. Starting off with a bit of slop here then changing over to all rain for the rest of the storm.I wouldn't mind that, either. That'd make the 27th less painful of a traveling day for me, and it would build the snowpack up North.

As St. Paul Storm mentioned earlier, this model has been the most consistent with the storm.  Doesn't mean there won't be changes in the next 5 days.  Yesterday and last night's models were all over the place and different from previous runs to the point you barely recognized the pattern.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is showing basically as close as we can possibly get to real cold without a snowpack at the end of the month. In addition, basically all of North Dakota is -20 or lower. What's interesting is it looks like it tries to form a clipper at the end of the run rather than the Panhandle Hook the FV3 wants to happen.

[FV-Mike]

Interesting graphic skilling used this morning on the 27th-28th storm

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

As St. Paul Storm mentioned earlier, this model has been the most consistent with the storm.  Doesn't mean there won't be changes in the next 5 days.  Yesterday and last night's models were all over the place and different from previous runs to the point you barely recognized the pattern.

Yeah. Some people from here may not be happy with that, but building the snowpack up North in the Dakotas and Manitoba & Saskatchewan is key right now. Once that happens, we have a better chance for cold as well as storms. Hard for either of those to happen when parts of Manitoba are looking at a brown Christmas.

[westMJim]

As a older person I have to sit back and wonder if in reality weather guessing in the long range (5 to 10 days out) is any better now then it was 40 years ago?  It just is not we have several models to look at and then guess if any of them line up with what we what to happen. While it is nice to have these "tools" to look at in the end it is still mother nature that will have the final say. 

With that said Happy "Official" start to the winter season of  2018/19

[james1976]

Interesting graphic skilling used this morning on the 27th-28th storm

 

1221.jpg

What model is he riding? Geez

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON is loaded with moisture.   Going to be a pretty sharp cut off down the road it looks like.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

12Z Icon snowfall map.  

[james1976]

12Z Icon.png

 

12Z Icon snowfall map.

What's that snow in IA from?

I fully expect this storm to cut hard across IA and dump snow in the Dakotas, NE and MN. There's no snowcover up there and nothing to stop it. The SE solution would definitely surprise me.

[Money]

What's that snow in IA from?

I fully expect this storm to cut hard across IA and dump snow in the Dakotas, NE and MN. There's no snowcover up there and nothing to stop it. The SE solution would definitely surprise me.

The first round of precip is snow before it changes to rain as the low cuts up by you guys

[Tom]

Models are staring to dig the trough entering the SW farther south. Watch these trends for those in the Plains.

[CentralNebWeather]

Models are staring to dig the trough entering the SW farther south. Watch these trends for those in the Plains.

Just seeing that now Tom.  At hour 102, GFS has the low in Central Arizona.  Will be interesting watching where it goes.

[Money]

Gonna be a hard cutter like the euro

[Tom]

That HP needs to stay farther west but it's sliding east across the GL's out ahead of the storm.  Not ideal positioning which allows it to cut NW.

[Money]

Gem takes the low into eastern NE and western IA

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS Hour 144 Low is over Lincoln.  Not ideal for many.

[Tom]

This map may be giving us a clue of where we are heading in January....Euro seasonal snowfall anomaly...

 

[gabel23]

GFS Hour 144 Low is over Lincoln.  Not ideal for many.

 

 

Gem takes the low into eastern NE and western IA

Gem occludes the low over Iowa and looks like it dumps some snow on Eastern Nebraska. GFS straight cuts it up to the northeast dry slotting us. Lots of moving parts with this thing; I'll be honest with you I hope we miss out on this storm because our holiday tournament is next week and we need those games! 

[gabel23]

This map may be giving us a clue of where we are heading in January....Euro seasonal snowfall anomaly...

 

I'll take that!!! Looks like the northeast scores big yet again if this would verify. They have all the luck I swear! 

[gabel23]

Here is the Gem snow total. 

[Money]

SPS is in a pretty good spot with this

[james1976]

Yeah I'd love to experience a nor'easter sometime.

[Tom]

12z GFS loves C MN and up through the Northwoods and snowmobile trails of Wisco and the U.P..../

[gabel23]

The GFS smashes it. 

[james1976]

I like how it goes around IA and then goes straight east haha.

[Snowshoe]

A healthy below normal bullseye around Lake Superior is interesting to me. Maybe the model doesn't consider lake effect snow? Or maybe the model doesn't see much in the way of N-NW winds?

 

This map may be giving us a clue of where we are heading in January....Euro seasonal snowfall anomaly...

 

[Tom]

A healthy below normal bullseye around Lake Superior is interesting to me. Maybe the model doesn't consider lake effect snow? Or maybe the model doesn't see much in the way of N-NW winds?

Good question, not quite sure why...maybe it's see a lot of HP over S Canada....

[CentralNebWeather]

I don't see the 2nd storm around New Years showing up on the GFS or CMC.   Was that just on FV3 GFS?  I am getting a little confused at all of the moving parts and different model runs that I'm not even sure what day I'm looking at.  Time for Christmas Break.

[CentralNebWeather]

From the models I am seeing today and if the trends continue, my area of Central Nebraska will be riding the edge.  I could see all rain, mix, thunderstorms, possibly some heavy snow.  I'm actually kind of excited to see a storm like this.  As has been mentioned earlier, if we don't have that snowpack farther north, we won't have the cold we need for the exciting storms down the road.  In this area that is late January, February and March.  (lately April)

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z FV3 GFS with the low over Las Vegas NV at hour 96.