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December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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Does pull down a massive high pressure
 

I don't see the 2nd storm around New Years showing up on the GFS or CMC.   Was that just on FV3 GFS?  I am getting a little confused at all of the moving parts and different model runs that I'm not even sure what day I'm looking at.  Time for Christmas Break.

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Just catching up on the 12z runs now. Nice to see the GFS and GEM come back north after the 0z debacles. Still way too much time left to get excited now. Let’s see what the King says. It’s hard to ignore the consistency of the FV3 with this storm but based on what I’ve seen so far I haven’t been impressed the last few months. No data to back up that claim. Just my 2 cents.

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From what I can tell from weather.us maps, Southwest through Northeast Nebraska are hit very hard on the 12Z Euro.  Example, I would get about 3-4" and 45-60 miles west is 12-16".  That is the line I think will cut through Nebraska next Wednesday and Thursday.  What side of the line you are on will make a world of difference.  Will it move southeast in the coming days or cut more northwest.  High pressure location in Canada next week will tell the story imo.

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NWS.png

 

Forecast models indicate that a storm system now developing off the coast of Japan will impact the central plains Wednesday into Thursday (Dec 26-27). However, given its current location (near Japan) and timing (5-6 days away) there are significant forecast model differences regarding the storm track that could make the difference between seeing all snow, all rain, or a mix of rain and snow across our forecast area. This appears likely to grow into a strong storm system so the precipitation could be heavy for at least some portion of the central plains. If you have travel plans on December 26th or 27th please keep up to date with the latest forecast updates as we get closer and can better iron out the storm track and precipitation type.

 

 

Interesting graphic from NWS Hastings.

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From what I can tell from weather.us maps, Southwest through Northeast Nebraska are hit very hard on the 12Z Euro.  Example, I would get about 3-4" and 45-60 miles west is 12-16".  That is the line I think will cut through Nebraska next Wednesday and Thursday.  What side of the line you are on will make a world of difference.  Will it move southeast in the coming days or cut more northwest.  High pressure location in Canada next week will tell the story imo.

Yowza. Fun to look at. Probably won’t verify like this though.

29EF1F79-05EF-4EAD-A6BA-AA3A20FF8211.png

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Pretty remarkable consistency among the global operational runs again today after last nights hiccup. GEFS ensembles aren’t as wide spread either although there are some significant differences still, and the mean is south of the op. 12z EPS looks a tad bit south of the op Euro but nothing major.

Never ever want to be in the bullseye 6 days out..

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Another thing, especially with the high to the northeast, is the potential for front end snow, even around here. Many models show this in their outputs. Whatever falls would only serve to get watered down and melted by the ensuing deluge of rain though.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Completely unrelated to the storm at hand; the upcoming SSW looks pretty fierce over Siberia, not that I know too much about them. Even so, this should have major implications for January and February. As many have said, cold will probably go into Eurasia first, but the last SSW did the same thing, and we still had a very cold march/april period on our side of the pole. 

 

 

The intensity of the SSW event on the ECMWF is absolutely amazing. Current -15C anoms above Siberia become +70C by Tuesday. That's a rise of 150F in 4 days!! Some uncertainty as to exactly how this affects our pattern, but chances of cold/snow in the East likely improve for Jan

4da01684571e391ccbbd59014433eff5.jpg

0995f101e2e5fb1a49e587157e36485c.jpg

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Happy Winter Solstice day! Boy, the 00z EPS and 00z GEFS have decidedly trended away from each other...clearly, the GEFS are much farther S and E and quite weaker overall. As much as I hate to say it, I'd be rooting for the EPS as we most certainly need to build up a deep snow pack up north.

I thought I woke up in 2015 or 2016.... lol. :lol: :(

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Heatwave next week in my area. Approaching near 50 by Wednesday w rain. Man, cannot wait to see how January ends up :lol: ...I am hearing colder and snowier?!....Ummm, Okkkk. :lol: :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hr 141 it has a low in OK starting to develop

 

Wayyy different from 12z

and then proceeds to lift almost straight north. Low development itself was super wonky and looked convectively induced.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Well at this point might as well hope for thunderstorms here right? New icon much deeper into mexico fyi

It should mostly be rain in my location so I’m hoping for thunderstorms. That would be cool in the wintertime since I’m more of a thunderstorm fan anyway. I could get somewhat dry slotted though.
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