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December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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The 12z EPS snow mean has the 2”+ line right across the northern 2/3rd’s of your state into the south side of KC. I think chances are you’ll have your first snowstorm of the season.

I think so. As long as both sets of ensembles get me 2" plus, I'm guaranteed "something". My problem is if we get some of the slop and ice instead of snow. Don't need an ice storm this year.

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That is going straight for the EC....SMI will miss out on that....things can still change though

 

I can see yr area getting a couple to several inches

If theres any resistance to the southeast to turn it NE as it's passing me, there will be a wallop of snow here. Pattern and history suggest that the general path will still change as we go forward.

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I think so. As long as both sets of ensembles get me 2" plus, I'm guaranteed "something". My problem is if we get some of the slop and ice instead of snow. Don't need an ice storm this year.

GEM looks fairly sloppy for you next weekend.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Temps are dropping. Currently at 40F w rain. The rain will change to snow later tanite. No accumulations are expected.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah and GFS wants to push a huge ridge into the central CONUS in the 8-9 day period.

Yup..I saw that. It has my temps in the mid to upper 40s for 3 days in a row. UGH!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently cloudy and wet w temps in the mid 30s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah and GFS wants to push a huge ridge into the central CONUS in the 8-9 day period.

 

I keep checking the models, but they keep showing a whole lot of nada through mid month.  Those of us who missed our chance at something good will have to wait a while longer.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I know that Joe Bastardi has been mentioning a pull back to the cold and stormy pattern for about 2 weeks.  If he is correct, that should put us back in the game around Dec. 16th and forward.  He also says that after this relaxation of the pattern, it will be a cold and stormy next 3 months or so.  Just passing along his information, not saying he is right or wrong.

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Might see the sun for the first time in a month this weekend!

 

Yesterday morning you missed out? Looked and felt like spring down my way. Woulda been nice to have sunny and 27F instead of 57F and torch-off of the holiday season snow cover. This is feeling very '14-15 as Nov & Dec trade places on the wx calendar. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So this is interesting. Just West of Lincoln and up towards Norfolk, power plant effect snow is currently falling. I'm under the band right now. Weird.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSOmaha/status/1069640267941244928?s=19

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Model snooze fest continues for these parts.  It was a fun few weeks to kick off the season, even though I just missed out on the big storms.  I'd like to see some NW flow with a few clippers that over perform.  Often times those are the funnest events, when you're expecting 1-2" but end up with a 4" storm.  

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Model snooze fest continues for these parts. It was a fun few weeks to kick off the season, even though I just missed out on the big storms. I'd like to see some NW flow with a few clippers that over perform. Often times those are the funnest events, when you're expecting 1-2" but end up with a 4" storm.

Indeed. I love those clippers. It seems like clippers in general have not been as frequent over the past few years.

 

Of course, maybe that’s totally false, and I just haven’t been paying attention as much the last few years.

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Cloudy and cold w a few flurries. Temp at 34F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yesterday morning you missed out? Looked and felt like spring down my way. Woulda been nice to have sunny and 27F instead of 57F and torch-off of the holiday season snow cover. This is feeling very '14-15 as Nov & Dec trade places on the wx calendar. 

 

Yeah we didn't get warmer than 41 with lots of fog/mist.  Plus being right near the lake we are stuck in a  perpetual hell of low clouds from NOV-JAN.  

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This New LP area will get squashed to my south because the confluence to the north is too strong. Its going due-E towards the Carolina's. Hopefully, it can change course.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, what a warm day today. Well into the 50s.

 

Also, the extended looks boring, cold and dry. All the snow chances that were forecasted in my extended has vanished away to partly cloudy. If it holds true, half of December goes dry and cold.

 A moisture starved clipper Thursday, then cool/dry for the next 4-5 days after that.   Yikes.  Not an encouraging start to Dec in Michigan.  Hopefully something surprises in the near future.  

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https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OAX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Look at this radar loop. Absolutely bizarre. You can see the steel plant that the snow is originating from in Norfolk too. At first I thought it was just radar picking up the steam, but I can see the flakes with my own eyes.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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On what was originally forecast to be a fairly quiet weather day,

an unusual weather set up has produced a very narrow band of snow

originating from steam from industrial plants in eastern Norfolk,

NE. The atmosphere is cold and moist with a dense stratus deck

across the CWA. The steam is helping to raise the moisture content

and essentially super-saturate the dendritic layer. As a result,

light to moderate snow continues to fall downstream of the steam,

through Columbus and Seward. In other areas, light snow, mainly

flurries, has been reported under the extensive stratus deck where

plenty of moisture resides within the dendritic zone. 

OAX on this bizarre snowfall.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OAX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Look at this radar loop. Absolutely bizarre. You can see the steel plant that the snow is originating from in Norfolk too. At first I thought it was just radar picking up the steam, but I can see the flakes with my own eyes.

Same thing happened earlier this afternoon on the SE side of the Twin Cities from a refinery. Weird stuff.

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 A moisture starved clipper Thursday, then cool/dry for the next 4-5 days after that.   Yikes.  Not an encouraging start to Dec in Michigan.  Hopefully something surprises in the near future.  

Hopefully, we get Christmas Eve blizzard!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently 29F w cloudy skies. Tbh, I cannot wait to see more sunshine during the next couple of days. It seems like I haven't seen the sun in ages

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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