December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

You should start a thread for your artificially produced snow! 

 

Yeah, he can call it the "fake news on the fake snow" thd

[jaster220]

Hopefully, we get Christmas Eve blizzard!

 

That'd be sweet. Can't say SMI has ever had a true bliz at Christmas. Last year's 6-8" surprise on Christmas Day was really a nice gift. Christmas Eve of '02 and '03 both had decent storms here, and the Dec 23rd 2004 storm focused on SEMI and just grazed us back to the west. That Christmas Eve was very cold with the fresh snowpack (was at my fam's place near Frankenmuth) and it felt more like NMI than SEMI.

 

Let OKwx get his storm this weekend. No need to deny our buddy down south when most of us have at least seen a bit of snow. We'll get more chances - lots of winter ahead of us amigo

[Niko]

That'd be sweet. Can't say SMI has ever had a true bliz at Christmas. Last year's 6-8" surprise on Christmas Day was really a nice gift. Christmas Eve of '02 and '03 both had decent storms here, and the Dec 23rd 2004 storm focused on SEMI and just grazed us back to the west. That Christmas Eve was very cold with the fresh snowpack (was at my fam's place near Frankenmuth) and it felt more like NMI than SEMI.

 

Let OKwx get his storm this weekend. No need to deny our buddy down south when most of us have at least seen a bit of snow. We'll get more chances - lots of winter ahead of us amigo

Watch us get a crippling storm outta nowhere...

 

I agree....

[OKwx2k4]

So this is interesting. Just West of Lincoln and up towards Norfolk, power plant effect snow is currently falling. I'm under the band right now. Weird.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSOmaha/status/1069640267941244928?s=19

I worked under a "smokestack" with a scrubbing/cooling tower system in it for a decade. We would see this on a very much smaller scale on days with ideal conditions. Would also see steam generated "snow" inside sometimes when it was cold enough. Very neat.

[Madtown]

Come on cold!

[Money]

You should start a thread for your artificially produced snow!

There goes the dome around Lincoln lol

[westMJim]

Road trip! My wife and me are going on a cruise and are driving down to Fort Lauderdale. So this will be the last report from me here at Grand Rapids until the 19^th or 20^th I will post things on the trip down and again on the trip back. I will NOT have an internet connection on the cruise.

It is clear here now with at temperature of 22.1° the next week to 10 days look to be on the very dry side. I wonder if this is how the winter will end up??

[Clinton]

Getting a surprise band of snow this morning.  I have a light dusting on the ground and hopefully it's a good sign for Saturday.

[Minny_Weather]

There goes the dome around Lincoln lol

You gonna keep trying to start s**t with me or no? I posted one thing as a joke and you got triggered over it. What's that say about you?

 

Also for the record it didn't accumulate. 

[Minny_Weather]

Still getting some flurries this morning. What fell last night has made for a dusting on roofs and cars. 23.0*F.

[East Dubzz]

Man, the long-term GFS sure is depressing right now. Several little shots of rain and that’s about it.

[Minny_Weather]

Zero precip over my place on both GFS models.

[Niko]

Cloudy and cold w temps in the upper 20s. Bare ground and cold temps are a bad combo. Looks like it will be like this for awhile. Half of December is going down the drain. The other half aint looking too promising as well. At least the sun is returning and staying for a bit also.

[Niko]

The LP area looks to be a cross country storm. A miss for nearly a lot of the north peeps on here.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Euro with virtually nothing for most members of the forum in the next 240 hours (10 days).  

[GDR]

If you like watching paint dry you’re gonna love the next 16 days according to the GFS!

[St Paul Storm]

Unexpected light snow falling most of the morning. No radar returns however.

 

240/384 hours of pure zzzzzzzz on the models isn’t what I’d call a ‘December to remember’.

[Tom]

Unexpected light snow falling most of the morning. No radar returns however.

 

240/384 hours of pure zzzzzzzz on the models isn’t what I’d call a ‘December to remember’.

For the most part, I think this December is going to be Remembered for what will be a major SSW event, similar to what happened last year.  All the models are seeing this happen during the middle of the month.  Instead of happening in late Feb last year, its happening early this year and that'll pretty much solidify a cold Winter overall.

[Clinton]

The CMC is starting to trend north on the Saturday system, I hope this trend continues.

 

 

[Iowawx]

Woke up to some unexpected freezing drizzle that started around 5:30AM. When I left for work at 7:30, roads were a sheet of ice. Had trouble walking in driveway to defrost my car. Got a coating of ice and some light snow flurries as well. 

[Tom]

Nature is gearing up for what will be a major and early SSW event that'll displace the Polar Vortex on the other side of the Pole in Eurasia.  While North America takes a brief break for what has been a very cold 60-day period, it won't be long till we shiver in the cold.  As stated above, I've seen a similar SSW event take place not long ago...it was last year, which evolved in mid/late Feb that set the stage for a very cold Mar/Apr period.  However, on the flip side, this year it is evolving in mid December which would translate to a very cold Jan/Feb.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, bc there is still a lot of winter weather that will happen this month.  We just need to get by these next 7-10 days of tranquil weather.  Even in an active pattern, nature has its "breaks" in the pattern.

 

I'd like to briefly dive into the long range pattern and sorta chime in on where I believe we are heading.  It has been noted that a "pullback" of some sense is evident in the Week 2 period, but as has been the case during this year's LRC pattern, any pullback is short lived and transient, which leads me to believe this one will be somewhat brief.  The ridge is expected to build in next week but there is a storm system between the 14th-16th that I'm looking for which will prob cut up the western side of the GL's.  While that should happen, ridging will take hold near Greenland and across Hudson Bay/S Canada.  Mind you, we just went through a similar pattern over the last 7-10 days which were favorable patterns for storm systems across our sub.  I'm expecting this type of set up to take shape later next week.

 

The week of the Winter Solstice is when things begin to get very interesting across our sub.  I'll comment later on storm potentials and timing on when the "Nanook from the North" comes back to visit along with whicked cold.  This December will be remembered for the big storm to open the month, SSW, and the return of Ol' Man Winter right before the holidays.

[Niko]

The CMC is starting to trend north on the Saturday system, I hope this trend continues.

 

 

Lets hope the north trend continues.

[St Paul Storm]

Pretty limited on how far north it can go with a 1040mb high in Iowa and a 1035mb high in the northeast.

[St Paul Storm]

For the most part, I think this December is going to be Remembered for what will be a major SSW event, similar to what happened last year.  All the models are seeing this happen during the middle of the month.  Instead of happening in late Feb last year, its happening early this year and that'll pretty much solidify a cold Winter overall.

I like it, Tom. Gotta take a break in order to reload.

[Minny_Weather]

The CMC is starting to trend north on the Saturday system, I hope this trend continues.

 

 

Rooting for ya here bud. It's rare that I root for KC cuz typically it means we'll be screwed out of snow but I think I'm out of contention for this one.

[Clinton]

Rooting for ya here bud. It's rare that I root for KC cuz typically it means we'll be screwed out of snow but I think I'm out of contention for this one.

Thanks!  Next Thursday has a chance to deliver for ya.  I'll probably get the salt washed off my streets.

[gabel23]

Nature is gearing up for what will be a major and early SSW event that'll displace the Polar Vortex on the other side of the Pole in Eurasia.  While North America takes a brief break for what has been a very cold 60-day period, it won't be long till we shiver in the cold.  As stated above, I've seen a similar SSW event take place not long ago...it was last year, which evolved in mid/late Feb that set the stage for a very cold Mar/Apr period.  However, on the flip side, this year it is evolving in mid December which would translate to a very cold Jan/Feb.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, bc there is still a lot of winter weather that will happen this month.  We just need to get by these next 7-10 days of tranquil weather.  Even in an active pattern, nature has its "breaks" in the pattern.

 

I'd like to briefly dive into the long range pattern and sorta chime in on where I believe we are heading.  It has been noted that a "pullback" of some sense is evident in the Week 2 period, but as has been the case during this year's LRC pattern, any pullback is short lived and transient, which leads me to believe this one will be somewhat brief.  The ridge is expected to build in next week but there is a storm system between the 14th-16th that I'm looking for which will prob cut up the western side of the GL's.  While that should happen, ridging will take hold near Greenland and across Hudson Bay/S Canada.  Mind you, we just went through a similar pattern over the last 7-10 days which were favorable patterns for storm systems across our sub.  I'm expecting this type of set up to take shape later next week.

 

The week of the Winter Solstice is when things begin to get very interesting across our sub.  I'll comment on storm potentials and timing on when the "Nanook from the North" comes back to visit along with whicked cold.  This December will be remembered for the big storm to open the month, SSW, and the return of Ol' Man Winter right before the holidays.

Great info Tom! Looking like I might have a stormy birthday hopefully on the 21st! I'm very excited to see where we are heading after this active end to November and beginning of December. I really think this pattern is gonna bode really well for everyone.  

[Niko]

Its going to be hard to get this thing too far north w that strong high to our north. This one is for Okwx2k4. Enjoy!

[james1976]

Been spitting light snow, sleet and frz drizzle all morning. Kind of a surprise and it's enough to keep the winter mood going.

[Tom]

Great info Tom! Looking like I might have a stormy birthday hopefully on the 21st! I'm very excited to see where we are heading after this active end to November and beginning of December. I really think this pattern is gonna bode really well for everyone.  

Same here Gabel and the period from 12/20-12/31 this month is going to be rather busy I believe.  There are many systems lined up on the calendar which should provide good opportunities for a White Christmas for many of us bc there are Clippers and S. Stream storms systems that should cycle through during that stretch.  Is there going to be a Christmas Eve/Day storm system this year???  Dare I say, a Christmas Blizzard???

[WBadgersW]

I better hope there isn't a Christmas Day blizzard. I need O'hare to be open.

[Tom]

I better hope there isn't a Christmas Day blizzard. I need O'hare to be open.

I know now who's going to be keeping a watchful eye during the holidays.  Your heading out on Christmas Day from ORD?

[hlcater]

I’ve seen some buzz about that SSW. If it happens I’d love it to be before mid January. Any later and we risk screwing over severe season. Not a fan of winter after March 15th. @2018.

[WBadgersW]

I know now who's going to be keeping a watchful eye during the holidays. Your heading out on Christmas Day from ORD?

Yup. I'm heading down to Patagonia for winter break.

[Tom]

Yup. I'm heading down to Patagonia for winter break.

Wow, all the way down to S. America!  What are your plans down there?  Hiking the Andes?

[WBadgersW]

Wow, all the way down to S. America! What are your plans down there? Hiking the Andes?

We have two hikes planned. One is in Torres del Paine and the other is near Puerto William. The Andes down there aren't as tall as they are further North, but they are more rugged.

[Tom]

We have two hikes planned. One is in Torres del Paine and the other is near Puerto William. The Andes down there aren't as tall as they are further North, but they are more rugged.

Sounds like fun. Have fun and be safe down there.

[Minny_Weather]

There's gonna be a Christmas blizzard this year cuz I'll be in Houston for Christmas.

[Niko]

Sun is finally out, but cold..temps are holding in the upper 20s.

[Stacsh]

Sun is finally out, but cold..temps are holding in the upper 20s.

 

Been so long it hurt my eyes walking out for lunch today.  Felt great though, even if it's cold.  Calm wind.