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December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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Verbatim, GFS has a pretty nice looking system for that same MO/IL/IN region that I've said would make out well this winter. Loses steam up my way as the transfer takes place. Hoping for a different outcome, but I might be bucking the seasonal trend in expecting it, lol

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192-210.gif

That looks like a perfect track, but its still ways out. I'd be more excited if it was, lets say, Wednesday night of next week or even Thursday especially. I would hate it if you are on the fringes of the hvy snow, while SMI gets wallop. Still, plenty of changes to come.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I will add tho, that the Nov 9-10 storm with it's quasi-fujiwara scenario over the central Lakes did feature the S stream SLP coming up due north just to the east of The Mitt, so that possibility as flashed by the Euro cannot be totally thrown out since we've already had precedent this LRC. I remember GRR's AFD even mentioning how rare that track is for this region. In the meantime, tons of sunny days in my grid. Was out shopping with the wife this eve in BC and on and off snow was coming down adding to the festive mood of the season. Had to park next to one of the larger parking lot piles (about 12 ft). We have some nice and very white piles around Marshall but none are as large owing to BC getting 6-7" vs 4.5" here. Besides, we don't have a huge mall lot in little ol Marshall.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Anybody else think "Diego" per the TWC is becoming a bust?? No way they name a storm 96-120 Hours out if it's in N.MN or the UP. Sure- the South is getting is Snow but NO WAY near what they advertised 3-4 days ago. Mentioned this in the past but if TWC named every storm that put down 6-12" from MT to the UP they would run to the ABC's by JAN... OK is going to see nothing and now ARK little to nothing - and if trends hold the EPIC storm for the Carolinas' is going to turn into 4-8" in the Mtns and little elsewhere. Typical TWC. All hype. Little or no Show.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Anybody else think "Diego" per the TWC is becoming a bust?? No way they name a storm 96-120 Hours out if it's in N.MN or the UP. Sure- the South is getting is Snow but NO WAY near what they advertised 3-4 days ago. Mentioned this in the past but if TWC named every storm that put down 6-12" from MT to the UP they would run to the ABC's by JAN... OK is going to see nothing and now ARK little to nothing - and if trends hold the EPIC storm for the Carolinas' is going to turn into 4-8" in the Mtns and little elsewhere. Typical TWC. All hype. Little or no Show.

According to TWC if a state doesn't border the Atlantic Ocean then it doesn't exist. They lost their credibility a while ago.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It makes one wonder on here as many of us like to watch the models. The same many of us also understand that a so called "lock" from 72+ hours is no lock- no matter the model of  choice. Why the TWC and certain NWS offices were so adamant on a crippling snow event that now appears to turn into nothing makes one wonder why the degreed MET's took differential calculus to the 10th degree and now just focus on models. LITTLE SYNOPTIC forecasting is used nowdays and it shows. RANT OVER>

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Greetings from Fort Lauderdale, FL the sun is out, the sky is blue the grass is green and the reported temperature is 66° The high here today should be around 77°  Last night on the TV weather here the news was last night was much warmer than the night before when the temperature dropped down to 54° and in the ten day the word Cold was used for Tue night with a low of 52°

On the way down here it was cold all the way into northern Florida there was snow in Charleston WV and it snowed thru all of the mountains even into North Carolina. But the roads were just wet.

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It makes one wonder on here as many of us like to watch the models. The same many of us also understand that a so called "lock" from 72+ hours is no lock- no matter the model of  choice. Why the TWC and certain NWS offices were so adamant on a crippling snow event that now appears to turn into nothing makes one wonder why the degreed MET's took differential calculus to the 10th degree and now just focus on models. LITTLE SYNOPTIC forecasting is used nowdays and it shows. RANT OVER>

 Not much different than here 3-4 days out of an event  :lol:

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This surprises me about Chicago (I lived there for 10 years BTW, including for the 2011 GHD blizzard).  We've already been down to 9 degrees in KC, and had lows of 12 (twice), 13, 15, 16, 17.  I would have thought Chicago would have been colder so far this season.  Looks like the average temp was about 1 degree colder in November in Chicago than in KC.  So I guess your highs were lower.  

You have to keep in mind that early in the season, it's tough to get really cold esp without a snow cover at ORD, let alone the city.  Not only that, but more importantly, the lake temps in the 40's doesn't help.  The main trough has been anchored smack dab over the central Plains/MW so the GL's region really wasn't in the ideal positioning.  It's a lot easier for a place like KC to get colder with less UHI effect around your area.  Didn't you also have a number of days with snow cover that aided in those low temps under clear skies?

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Currently at 28F w flurries flying  around.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Weather Channel storm naming rules....

 

*******

Winter storms are named based on either meeting, or the expectation to meet, at least one of the following criteria:

- NWS winter storm, blizzard, or ice storm warnings covering at least a population of 2 million
- NWS winter storm, blizzard, or ice storm warnings covering at least an area of 400,000 square kilometers

 

Storms forecast to trigger NWS warnings over a much larger population and/or area, such as January 2018's Winter Storm Grayson in the South and Northeast, are typically named well ahead of time. 

 

Lake-effect snowstorms are not named, and any warnings covering lake-effect snow are not counted for consideration for naming a winter storm. 

 

Using these criteria, the number of named winter storms has been consistent over six seasons.

*******

 

This latest system looked like a big deal for a significant area, but it just crapped out.  It happens.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It makes one wonder on here as many of us like to watch the models. The same many of us also understand that a so called "lock" from 72+ hours is no lock- no matter the model of  choice. Why the TWC and certain NWS offices were so adamant on a crippling snow event that now appears to turn into nothing makes one wonder why the degreed MET's took differential calculus to the 10th degree and now just focus on models. LITTLE SYNOPTIC forecasting is used nowdays and it shows. RANT OVER>

 

 Not much different than here 3-4 days out of an event  :lol:

 

Exactly my thoughts. Our wx office had decided 2+ days out that there was nothing to see and that nothing could trend up (or down) during the following 48 hrs. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Definitely looking like we have our next storm to track in the 13th-15th time frame.  As stated models all over the place from run to run.  12z Euro has an SLP in SE Missouri at 168 hours.  Not a lot of cold air though, similar to the last storm that hit NE and southern MN where the storm produced most of it's cold air.  Canadian does something I've never personally witnessed in eastern Iowa and runs an SLP due north in Illinois just dumping snow into Eastern Iowa.  

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Definitely looking like we have our next storm to track in the 13th-15th time frame.  As stated models all over the place from run to run.  12z Euro has an SLP in SE Missouri at 168 hours.  Not a lot of cold air though, similar to the last storm that hit NE and southern MN where the storm produced most of it's cold air.  Canadian does something I've never personally witnessed in eastern Iowa and runs an SLP due north in Illinois just dumping snow into Eastern Iowa.  

If we can get more moisture into it as the SLP fires up in Kansas, we may be in the running for that. I'm not holding out much hope at the moment though. FV3 has it on a perfect track but not a drop of anything here. If we get one more perfectly tracked storm here with little to no snow I may go mentally insane.

 

2' amounts just West of Dubuque and Clinton on GEM. Jesus.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I like the storm signal on the EPS. 850s could be colder, but below freezing is a start I guess. This system has no cold air in front of it so odds overwhelmingly favor a warm system with iffy thermals. The fact this storm has kinda been revived on the models is promising though.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018120712/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018120712/168/850t.conus.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Light snow currently and temp of 27F. No accumulations.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1/2" of LEFluff in two squalls today. Almost embarrassing to record it, tho technically it counts. Ready for #f'realsnow again, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Really didn’t seem like it tbh

I've made posts like that my entire time here, and I've seen others do it as well. I fail to see why it's an issue now. Because there's an argument in the complaints thread? In my mind, what's in there stays in there.

 

Everything is already frosted over here. Left the hockey game and I had to wait for my car to defrost. Don't think I've had that happen before. 23.9*F. Very raw night.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GFS six days out? Lock it in!

 

Sometimes difficult to see the sarc in written words, but I figured that's what you meant. Still time to (maybe) get this cold enough so it shares the wealth across the forum. That run verbatim looks like another W and/or N sub hit. Ofc, I remember mid-range models were showing like zero snow accum's over SWMI for the 11/26 system, but it trended south just enough to deliver. Not throwing the towel here yet  :lol: 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I will be somewhat surprised if the EURO sees the system at HR  144  compared to the GFS.-- even grossly similar. The UKMET was totally different.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Sometimes difficult to see the sarc in written words, but I figured that's what you meant. Still time to (maybe) get this cold enough so it shares the wealth across the forum. That run verbatim looks like another W and/or N sub hit. Ofc, I remember mid-range models were showing like zero snow accum's over SWMI for the 11/26 system, but it trended south just enough to deliver. Not throwing the towel here yet  :lol:

I'm more worried about moisture more than anything in these parts. Thermals are your biggest issue. I'm personally not buying or selling this one yet either.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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22F with a WC of 14F. Peeps around town were all shivering. One of the coldest real-feel evening's of the young winter here in Marshall.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm more worried about moisture more than anything in these parts. Thermals are your biggest issue. I'm personally not buying or selling this one yet either.

 

Well, he was just posting on that one GFS run which looked sweet for SENE. Decent track/moisture/cold combo compared to 95% rainer over my way.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z GEFS nominally sticking to it's guns. OHV track up to OH, then x-fers off the EC. Ofc, spread at this range is massive and there are quite a few northern outliers similar to what some GEM runs have flashed.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I will be somewhat surprised if the EURO sees the system at HR  144  compared to the GFS.-- even grossly similar. The UKMET was totally different.

 

What did the Ukie show, if you can just put it in words?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I will be somewhat surprised if the EURO sees the system at HR  144  compared to the GFS.-- even grossly similar. The UKMET was totally different.

 

Euro @ h144 = 1001 mb over Texarkana. It has a system, not sure what it want's to do with it yet?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro sticking with south route thru 168, very similar to the GEFS nominal track. Kinda cut-off from any decent cold supply.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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