December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

  full-on Nino pattern right now. Carolina's buried in 2 foot, while we're cold and dry. Then we warm up and rain.

[Madtown]

I am nino here me roar....not liking where this is heading imo.

[Minny_Weather]

Well, he was just posting on that one GFS run which looked sweet for SENE. Decent track/moisture/cold combo compared to 95% rainer over my way.

I know. I do the same thing sometimes. I wasn't being an actual *******. That's also not what I was referring to when I replied to you, I was just saying in general.

[Minny_Weather]

  full-on Nino pattern right now. Carolina's buried in 2 foot, while we're cold and dry. Then we warm up and rain.

Not to mention Southern California getting drenched.

[Minny_Weather]

Big difference. Euro has the low in Southeast OK. Aside from a small band around here when the low fires up, it's pretty much an all-rain event up until it reaches Canada. That has to be frustrating for the people actually receiving said rain.

[Tom]

While Ol' Man Winter takes its early season "winter break" for most of our sub, I've had a bit more time on my hands to study the long range pattern and where I feel we are heading.  There are several storm systems that I'm eye balling after the late week system next week which will gear us up for the Christmas and New Year holidays.  Gosh, I can't believe we are already firmly in the holiday season.  So, as we get through this "warm spell" next week and into the following weekend, nature is setting the stage for Winter to return and I like what I'm seeing off the GEFS/EPS in the Week 2 period.  Both models are seeing the active and potentially snowy pattern shaping up right around, or just before the Winter Solstice period.

 

If we are to use the LRC as guidance, there is a storm system during the 18th-20th time frame that should come out of the SW and eject out of the Rockies and develop in the central Plains.  From there, depending on how much blocking, if any, sets up across S Canada, it will either cut towards the GL's or take a more west/east storm track.  IMO, this storm will be the one that snaps us out of the benign, warm "nino-ish" pattern we will have been in.  Using the EAR, both the GFS/EURO have a storm tracking right through Japan on the 11th/12th which fits the timing of the aforementioned storm system and lines up with the LRC's timing as well.

 

 

 

It doesn't stop there....following this system, leading us up towards the Winter Solstice period, coincidentally, I think there will be a vigorous NW PAC wave and/or a Clipper traversing the N Rockies and likely tracking across the northern tier of our sub, ushering the beginning of a long stretch of arctic cold and bonafide Winter-like conditions.  This particular system should set the stage of what I believe will be a wild finish to the month of December.  I won't be surprised if there are literally systems every other day that we are tracking across our sub.  Obviously, not everyone is going to get hit by every storm but the opportunities during this 10-15 day stretch to close out December should really lift up the holiday spirit and snows will be flying.

 

Finally, I will finish with this, which may end up being one of those holiday seasons, whereby, we will be tracking a major Christmas Day storm system...and, quite possibly, a NYE/New Year's Day storm.  Interestingly, several long range tools I use "line up" on the days during both holidays.  To provide you an idea for the Christmas period, using the BSR, we see a storm tracking west/east across the Aleutian Islands this weekend which correlates to a storm around the Christmas holiday and fits the dates using the LRC pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Took a nice walk around the area of the motel and it is a very warm and summer like start to the day down here in south Florida, The reported temperature is 74 and the DP is 63. We are getting ready to leave for the port (Port Everglades) This will be my last post until some time on Sunday December 16th  

[Tom]

Took a nice walk around the area of the motel and it is a very warm and summer like start to the day down here in south Florida, The reported temperature is 74 and the DP is 63. We are getting ready to leave for the port (Port Everglades) This will be my last post until some time on Sunday December 16th

Have fun down there WestMJim! Soak up some rays for me and the rest of us.

[Niko]

Sunny and frigid w temps at 16F.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Larger scale height rises east of the
Rockies initiate a warming trend across the Great Lakes during the
mid to late week period that favors MOS temperature guidance over
blended data-sets. High temperatures in the 40s look reachable by
Thursday and could hold into next weekend making rain likely with
the next low pressure system.

 

El nino has arrived! Cold dry, warms up w rain, then, colder and dry again...UGH!

 

If you get rain in December and not snow, then, you know the pattern is sucky.

[Stacsh]

NOAA:

 

Larger scale height rises east of the

Rockies initiate a warming trend across the Great Lakes during the

mid to late week period that favors MOS temperature guidance over

blended data-sets. High temperatures in the 40s look reachable by

Thursday and could hold into next weekend making rain likely with

the next low pressure system.

 

El nino has arrived! Cold dry, warms up w rain, then, colder and dry again...UGH!

 

If you get rain in December and not snow, then, you know the pattern is sucky.

 yikes...see y'all around Christmas (hopefully) 

[Niko]

 yikes...see y'all around Christmas (hopefully) 

[Stormhunter87]

Wow the CMC 12z drops a snow bomb over northern KS and eastern Nebraska. The only one to do so, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. 20 inches wow, hard to believe but that would be awesome.

[jaster220]

Wow the CMC 12z drops a snow bomb over northern KS and eastern Nebraska. The only one to do so, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. 20 inches wow, hard to believe but that would be awesome.

 

If it's just gonna be a rainer over here, I'd rather it did that and slammed some of us..

[jaster220]

Thanks for this analysis.  I enjoy your long-range discussions.

 

THIS!

 

Thx Tom   

[jaster220]

GFS has been increasingly bullish with a Wed eve/night front-end snow fall here in SMI. 3rd run now reflecting such scenario. I'd welcome it for sure.

 

[jaster220]

Insert face-palm, arrow-thru-head, etc. @ snowing in Dixie while rainer for us up north. You WILL here a scream across the sub if this plays out verbatim

 

[jaster220]

Didn't have time to peek at models all day, but I see the 6z GFS actually pulled together a nice system for us. Need the Euro to get on board with the colder outcome tho.

 

[indianajohn]

Didn't have time to peek at models all day, but I see the 6z GFS actually pulled together a nice system for us. Need the Euro to get on board with the colder outcome tho.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144-162.gif

Looks like some Possible LES for NWI on the backside as it heads East

[jaster220]

Wow the CMC 12z drops a snow bomb over northern KS and eastern Nebraska. The only one to do so, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. 20 inches wow, hard to believe but that would be awesome.

 

LOL, just looped that 12z GEM and thought I'd clicked on last weekend's run. That's about as close to a deja-va copy cat storm as I've ever seen from any model, ever.

[jaster220]

Looks like some Possible LES for NWI on the backside as it heads East

 

Yeah, unfortunately attm it's a cold solution outlier. There's a lot of different possibilities still being painted at this range. The solutions that are more amped for us, actually want to wrap in too much warm air. We need a balanced approach as seen on that 6z GFS loop. Just that it was one run of one model that showed enough cold for a legit snow threat. Let's see how this trends.

[St Paul Storm]

[Iowawx]

If it is going to continue to be a struggle just to get an inch of snow here, let's just move on from this winter. 

[GDR]

 

If it is going to continue to be a struggle just to get an inch of snow here, let's just move on from this winter. [/quote??]

[Andie]

We received 3" of rain over the past 24 hrs. Imagine if that was snow.

 

Rain still out west. Heavy overcast -800'

Snow/Ice mix to the west as well about 70 miles where elevation begins to rise approx. 20 mi. West of Ft. Worth.

 

39* @ 2:30 pm

Dewpoint 36*.

[Madtown]

South n east the drum beat goes on

[Stormhunter87]

LOL, just looped that 12z GEM and thought I'd clicked on last weekend's run. That's about as close to a deja-va copy cat storm as I've ever seen from any model, ever.

I noticed that too. I would love it but all the other models keep the storm south and east.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom, keep hitting the nail on the head. Great stuff!!

 

I'm going to take my losses with the current storm. I got overexcited about a storm that made nothing when I fully believed, regardless of modeling, that I had it pegged from a long way off. There should be plenty to make up for it.

[CentralNebWeather]

While Ol' Man Winter takes its early season "winter break" for most of our sub, I've had a bit more time on my hands to study the long range pattern and where I feel we are heading. There are several storm systems that I'm eye balling after the late week system next week which will gear us up for the Christmas and New Year holidays. Gosh, I can't believe we are already firmly in the holiday season. So, as we get through this "warm spell" next week and into the following weekend, nature is setting the stage for Winter to return and I like what I'm seeing off the GEFS/EPS in the Week 2 period. Both models are seeing the active and potentially snowy pattern shaping up right around, or just before the Winter Solstice period.

 

If we are to use the LRC as guidance, there is a storm system during the 18th-20th time frame that should come out of the SW and eject out of the Rockies and develop in the central Plains. From there, depending on how much blocking, if any, sets up across S Canada, it will either cut towards the GL's or take a more west/east storm track. IMO, this storm will be the one that snaps us out of the benign, warm "nino-ish" pattern we will have been in. Using the EAR, both the GFS/EURO have a storm tracking right through Japan on the 11th/12th which fits the timing of the aforementioned storm system and lines up with the LRC's timing as well.

 

 

 

It doesn't stop there....following this system, leading us up towards the Winter Solstice period, coincidentally, I think there will be a vigorous NW PAC wave and/or a Clipper traversing the N Rockies and likely tracking across the northern tier of our sub, ushering the beginning of a long stretch of arctic cold and bonafide Winter-like conditions. This particular system should set the stage of what I believe will be a wild finish to the month of December. I won't be surprised if there are literally systems every other day that we are tracking across our sub. Obviously, not everyone is going to get hit by every storm but the opportunities during this 10-15 day stretch to close out December should really lift up the holiday spirit and snows will be flying.

 

Finally, I will finish with this, which may end up being one of those holiday seasons, whereby, we will be tracking a major Christmas Day storm system...and, quite possibly, a NYE/New Year's Day storm. Interestingly, several long range tools I use "line up" on the days during both holidays. To provide you an idea for the Christmas period, using the BSR, we see a storm tracking west/east across the Aleutian Islands this weekend which correlates to a storm around the Christmas holiday and fits the dates using the LRC pattern.

 

 

 

If you get a chance to watch weather bell’s Saturday summary JB is really bullish on cold weather coming back before Christmas and and a very cold winter with a ssw ushering in frigid temps. Nice work Tom.

[Niko]

Currently at 17F w clear skies.

[Niko]

Didn't have time to peek at models all day, but I see the 6z GFS actually pulled together a nice system for us. Need the Euro to get on board with the colder outcome tho.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144-162.gif

I'd take that scenario and run....

[Niko]

Here is a webcam of Boone, N.C. Its in the mountains of western N.C. It has an elevation of 3300 ft. They are expecting over a foot of snow. Diego is leaving its mark there. Cantore from TWC is going there.

http://www.resortcam...g-street-boone/

[jaster220]

Currently at 17F w clear skies.

 

Quite the free-fall here by Marshall stds..down to 16F already with bare ground no less. Sunshine and blue skies baby! That was so nice this afternoon I took a spin up to Hastings, the epicenter of our storm 12 days ago. The highways and countryside going there are really some of the nicest in SWMI. It was quite noticeable just about 15 miles north of here that they had much more snow. We have only plow piles while they still have some plow banks along the county roads. Plus, they were hit with that surprise 2" squall the other day which whitened up the ground. Quite a bit of that remains in shaded/wooded areas as well. I was surprised at how many drifts there were as well that survived the big rainer a week ago. Nice to see and under mid-20's it wasn't melting, nor the ice. It's actually quite cold by early December norms and I see my grid high for Sunday has been knocked down 4F and should get only to freezing or slightly above for a few hours.

[Niko]

Quite the free-fall here by Marshall stds..down to 16F already with bare ground no less. Sunshine and blue skies baby! That was so nice this afternoon I took a spin up to Hastings, the epicenter of our storm 12 days ago. The highways and countryside going there are really some of the nicest in SWMI. It was quite noticeable just about 15 miles north of here that they had much more snow. We have only plow piles while they still have some plow banks along the county roads. Plus, they were hit with that surprise 2" squall the other day which whitened up the ground. Quite a bit of that remains in shaded/wooded areas as well. I was surprised at how many drifts there were as well that survived the big rainer a week ago. Nice to see and under mid-20's it wasn't melting, nor the ice. It's actually quite cold by early December norms and I see my grid high for Sunday has been knocked down 4F and should get only to freezing or slightly above for a few hours.

Hang in there buddy....eventually, a snowstorm has to happen in our neck of the woods. Its just a matter of time.

[jaster220]

Brr!! Big Rapids sitting @ 11F

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKSBATTLE CREEK   FAIR      17  13  84 CALM      30.49FBENTON HARBOR  FAIR      17  13  84 E3        30.50FBIG RAPIDS     FAIR      11   9  90 CALM      30.45F

[jaster220]

Hang in there buddy....eventually, a snowstorm has to happen. Its just a matter of time.

 

Even more so for you there amigo. At least I've scored one. Not that I won't take more anytime

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro has several days above 40, with upper 40s to low 50s around here next weekend.

[hlcater]

Nowadays it seems like there's no escape from lousy Decembers. Looking like a snoozer through at least December 20th at this point. Gonna need something to come save the day for a white christmas here.

[Tom]

Driving home last night after some shopping, I noticed plenty more houses that were decorated with Christmas lights and decor.  The late stragglers had ideal weather this weekend to put up their decorations.  Now you can say, my neighborhood is looking more like the holidays...all we need is a fresh blanket of snow.   Speaking of snow, although there are minimal chances this coming week, I'm still encouraged to see the ensembles suggesting a favorable pattern just before the Winter Solstice.  By the way, isn't it ironic, just as we transition into the official Winter season on the 21st, all the way across the Pole in Eurasia, a major disruption of the Polar Vortex will be underway and likely the cattle prod that sets off an onslaught of Ol' Man Winter on this side of the Pole to close out December.

 

Check out both the GEPS/GEFS 10mb heights animations....

[Niko]

Gorgeous morning w plenty of sunshine, but cold w temps in the teens