East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 There is likely going to be a storm moving through the area this weekend. Lots of questions to be answered regarding the track and thermals, as the models are still all over the place. I am on my phone, so I can’t post pictures. Someone else can share some pictures of the most recent runs, if you’d like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Pretty good spread between the models on where this storm is headed.. 12z GFS & Icon are fairly close, taking it through NE Kansas & Missouri, and then heading right towards the Chicago area, more or less. 12z Canadian rips it right through central Iowa up into Minnesota. 12z Euro is yet to run, but the 00z took it through NE Iowa. Pretty big spread for a storm that’s schedule to be in the Panhandle area in about 80 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 This is a very odd storm. I think the models are having a hard time dealing with the different factors. Wpc definitely seeing something but what I have no idea lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 GFS appears to be trending colder. 2nd storm looks more ominous. Is this thread for both storms? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 So far today it looks like the GEM and Fv3 are fairly similar to last nights Euro with a north/west solution, while the GFS is south. Someone said the Ukie from last night was south as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 GFS appears to be trending colder. 2nd storm looks more ominous. Is this thread for both storms?I just intended for this thread to cover the first storm, as combining the two could start to get kind of confusing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 GFS appears to be trending colder. 2nd storm looks more ominous. Is this thread for both storms?Lots going on that for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Ukie was pretty south as of yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 UkMet the furtherst S at HR 96. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 What the Ukie does under 100 hrs is a pretty good (though not always) idea which way the Euro will trend. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I just intended for this thread to cover the first storm, as combining the two could start to get kind of confusing.I'm down with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 What are the teleconnections like? Anything to stop it from going way north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12z fv3 looks very heavy with snow at 96 here. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Wow fv3 goes ape over nebraska! 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12z FV3-GFS is a little further NW than the GFS. Takes the low to Southern Iowa/N Missouri and then through SE Iowa. Seems to have more cold air wrapped in than the GFS. Both of them really seem to have the storm weaken as the SLP starts to approach the eastern part of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 12z FV3-GFS is a little further NW than the GFS. Takes the low to Southern Iowa/N Missouri and then through SE Iowa. Seems to have more cold air wrapped in than the GFS. Both of them really seem to have the storm weaken as the SLP starts to approach the eastern part of Iowa.Might be on to something as the regular GFS is trending colder. Overall it seems models are trending colder. Good sign 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Wow fv3 goes ape s**t over nebraska! blows up northwest half of iowa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 --- YEP --If we have learned anything this young Winter; #1 things trend South. #2 Do not trust the FV3-GFS or even the GFS. The GFS flip-flopped not once, but twice on the past system within 4-5 days. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Gfs may have bloen the last system, but its still a good model. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah that's crazy on the fv3 but looks like a Souix city storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah that's crazy on the fv3 but looks like a Souix city storm. Yep. Honestly I don't know what to believe at this point. Though Chicago got the storm last time, I still ended up with less than you guys out in Nebraska did, despite the models saying the WAA would be overtaken even downtown. Needless to say, just be thankful that it's showing A STORM. I can't believe how in this day in age the weather models are still just so bad. Then again, where would the fun be if they were accurate all the time? So I guess I can't complain. Anywhoozers, I think the models are overdoing the WAA on this one. No shot that with the snowpack we have down from the Plains eastward that it will go THAT far north. I think Nebraska is sitting pretty with this one, hopefully it turns into a bowling ball and gives us all a good storm in the coming runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yep. Honestly I don't know what to believe at this point. Though Chicago got the storm last time, I still ended up with less than you guys out in Nebraska did, despite the models saying the WAA would be overtaken even downtown. Needless to say, just be thankful that it's showing A STORM. I can't believe how in this day in age the weather models are still just so bad. Then again, where would the fun be if they were accurate all the time? So I guess I can't complain. Anywhoozers, I think the models are overdoing the WAA on this one. No shot that with the snowpack we have down from the Plains eastward that it will go THAT far north. I think Nebraska is sitting pretty with this one, hopefully it turns into a bowling ball and gives us all a good storm in the coming runs With really no deep High pressure to the north anything is a possibility on this one. As far as the low level cold due to the snow pack, I believe that freezing rain might be a good possibility for areas that are supposed to see rain and maybe snow/sleet on the onset. Still too early to tell what's going to transpire as changes will be coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I got a feeling this storm is going to come down to 84 to 72 hour model runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I’m waiting for Tom and his magnet to come into full force in future runs! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I’m waiting for Tom and his magnet to come into full force in future runs! He does seem to have the hot hand so far.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I got a feeling this storm is going to come down to 84 to 72 hour model runs.Or be like the last one and come down to 6 hour runs. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Or be like the last one and come down to 6 hour runs.Very true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gifUkMet the furtherst S at HR 96.Ukie has had the far southern route for the past 3 runs now. Curious to see what the future runs will show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 If the cold air is able to be tapped the JMA has a crazy good track for Eastern Nebraska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The euro decided to give up for the day at hr 48 lol 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The euro decided to give up for the day at hr 48 lolFroze at 6 for me. What's going on? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Froze at 6 for me. What's going on?Storm is so big the computer can’t even process it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Froze at 6 for me. What's going on?Trump tweeted about how much better he could do if he had control of this model so they are pulling out of North America!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Even a blank run of the Euro is better than the GFS and its shiny new upgrade. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 LOL sureeee 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Up to hour 72 on Tropical tidbits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 HR 72 finally loaded. Hopefully the rest of it will get going now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me. LOL - got me! Delete the extra zero for a proper correction Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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