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12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm


East Dubzz

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There is likely going to be a storm moving through the area this weekend.

 

Lots of questions to be answered regarding the track and thermals, as the models are still all over the place.

 

I am on my phone, so I can’t post pictures. Someone else can share some pictures of the most recent runs, if you’d like.

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Pretty good spread between the models on where this storm is headed..

 

12z GFS & Icon are fairly close, taking it through NE Kansas & Missouri, and then heading right towards the Chicago area, more or less.

 

12z Canadian rips it right through central Iowa up into Minnesota.

 

12z Euro is yet to run, but the 00z took it through NE Iowa.

 

Pretty big spread for a storm that’s schedule to be in the Panhandle area in about 80 hours.

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12z FV3-GFS is a little further NW than the GFS. Takes the low to Southern Iowa/N Missouri and then through SE Iowa.

 

Seems to have more cold air wrapped in than the GFS.

 

Both of them really seem to have the storm weaken as the SLP starts to approach the eastern part of Iowa.

Might be on to something as the regular GFS is trending colder. Overall it seems models are trending colder. Good sign
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--- YEP --If we have learned anything this young Winter; #1 things trend South. #2 Do not trust the FV3-GFS or even the GFS. The GFS flip-flopped not once, but twice on the past system within 4-5 days.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yeah that's crazy on the fv3 but looks like a Souix city storm.

 

Yep. Honestly I don't know what to believe at this point. Though Chicago got the storm last time, I still ended up with less than you guys out in Nebraska did, despite the models saying the WAA would be overtaken even downtown. Needless to say, just be thankful that it's showing A STORM. I can't believe how in this day in age the weather models are still just so bad. Then again, where would the fun be if they were accurate all the time? So I guess I can't complain.

 

Anywhoozers, I think the models are overdoing the WAA on this one. No shot that with the snowpack we have down from the Plains eastward that it will go THAT far north. I think Nebraska is sitting pretty with this one, hopefully it turns into a bowling ball and gives us all a good storm in the coming runs :) 

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Yep. Honestly I don't know what to believe at this point. Though Chicago got the storm last time, I still ended up with less than you guys out in Nebraska did, despite the models saying the WAA would be overtaken even downtown. Needless to say, just be thankful that it's showing A STORM. I can't believe how in this day in age the weather models are still just so bad. Then again, where would the fun be if they were accurate all the time? So I guess I can't complain.

 

Anywhoozers, I think the models are overdoing the WAA on this one. No shot that with the snowpack we have down from the Plains eastward that it will go THAT far north. I think Nebraska is sitting pretty with this one, hopefully it turns into a bowling ball and gives us all a good storm in the coming runs :)

With really no deep High pressure to the north anything is a possibility on this one. As far as the low level cold due to the snow pack, I believe that freezing rain might be a good possibility for areas that are supposed to see rain and maybe snow/sleet on the onset. Still too early to tell what's going to transpire as changes will be coming.

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I’m waiting for Tom and his magnet to come into full force in future runs!

 

He does seem to have the hot hand so far..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me.

 

LOL - got me!  Delete the extra zero for a proper correction

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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