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12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm


East Dubzz

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Hey @central neb. I see you where put in a warning over night, good luck man! You continue to add on to your already impressive snow total for the year! 

Thanks.  Yes now saying 5-9".  Our basketball teams are hosting Adams Central tonight and our administration just moved all of the games up so Adams Central can get back home before anything hits.  I was just asked to do the scorebooks for boys and girls jv so I have a long day ahead of me, but we do it for the money, right?  sarc.

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The new FV3-GFS model absolutely demolishes Central and Northern Nebraska.  The old GFS was one of the lesser models for amounts.  Be interesting to see which is closer, though I think the new model might be overdoing it, but it does look a lot like the Euro.  

I'm hanging on by a thread according to the GFS. Oax mentioned this on their morning disco......I hope it doesn't make it up into my area but it will be close.

 

Farther southeast a potentially sharp

gradient of 5 inch to 1 inch amounts is possible somewhere north and

northwest of Interstate 80 where atmospheric cooling occurs after

lift near upper low shifts east.

 

Gonna be an interesting morning tomorrow for sure. Gonna be all about the change over and where that low tracks. 

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attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_048.gifGFS not overly excited for many on here---

 

GFS was the warmest model for MI with the Mondays storm. While it reflected the initial WAA best, it eventually ended up LOW with it's total snowfall for this area. I'd go blend between it and the coldest models tbh. 7 pm and snowin'

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Surface48hr/usa_ICast.gif

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS was the warmest model for MI with the Mondays storm. While it reflected the initial WAA best, it eventually ended up LOW with it's total snowfall for this area. I'd go blend between it and the coldest models tbh. 

GFS is famous for a slight overdue of WAA this close to an event

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I have done that on every storm and i just got even more upset lol. Not worth it. I will still be watching obviously but not holding my breath. Best thing to hope for is convection to rapidly cool the atmosphere locally

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Guessing we get upgraded to a warning here shortly.  Final outcome will be highly dependent on precip type of course.  Models spitting out anywhere from 2-8 inches it would seem based on thermals verbatim.

 

EDIT.. the euro has been so very consistent on this end of the storm the last 3 model runs

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The other thing I would watch is the size of the dry slot/punch around there.  

I saw that HRRR was starting to grow a dry slot but I wasn't gonna mention that until I saw it on a couple more runs. Won't mean much for here cuz it'll happen while ptype is rain but I'd be pissed if I lived in the Northeastern part of the state and that slot happened.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Severe weather may choke the moisture up north in our area as well.

 

Very good point, I forgot about the severe weather part of this storm. Which they have an enhanced zone out.

Lots of research on this topic and not alot of clear cut answers.  One could say this about nearly every winter storm.  Especially early and late season

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Temp holding steady around 37 here. Did get up to 38 for a bit but now it's holding steady. North wind will be getting here in a couple hours so let's hope for some good cold advection as this is slightly above where we were supposed to get today. 37.2*F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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