12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[Minny_Weather]

RPM goes very heavy on the dry slot, 2" here and only 5.7" in Norfolk.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Haha gfs went even more north

[Minny_Weather]

Haha gfs went even more north

It's too late to pay attention to global maps anyway.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX. I’ll take it.

 

The other tricky part of the forecast is determining the northern

extent of the plowable snowfall. Several of the models indicated

a northward shift with the snow, with the potential for a band

with 1+ inch per hour rates setting up as far north as the Twin

Cities late Saturday afternoon. While it`s likely premature to

entirely buy in on that scenario, do feel confident enough that

areas as far north as the Interstate 94 corridor should see

Advisory-worthy accumulations. Will also have brisk northwest

winds bringing further visibility reductions, especially when the

snow is falling.

[Minny_Weather]

Still not sure where OAX is getting the notion that the heaviest snow will fall in the Northeastern part of the state tomorrow night. Looks like light-moderate snow will spread across the CWA with isolated heavy bands. I also think we should be placed in a low-end advisory here.

[bud2380]

I'd like to be in north central NE tonight and tomorrow. The Ainsworth to Norfolk area looks to be in the best spot to me.  I'd be surprised if we don't see some 15"+ totals around there.  

[Minny_Weather]

I'd like to be in north central NE tonight and tomorrow. The Ainsworth to Norfolk area looks to be in the best spot to me. I'd be surprised if we don't see some 15"+ totals around there.

Norfolk is iffy. If there's a dry slot that'll be the most 33 area. North Central is golden though.

 

Edit: Oh wow that's a nice Easter egg. One of the mods changed the word "f*cked" to "33" in the censorship thingy.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR has us sitting under a band of sleet forever. I guess that's more entertaining than rain?

[Stormhunter87]

Around lunch time going to be interesting around here

[East Dubzz]

Good luck to all involved with this storm! Hoping we get a nice one over here at some point this year!

[LincSnow]

Dean W from Channel 8 lincoln is calling for 2-4. Not sure it will reach those totals

[Minny_Weather]

Dean W from Channel 8 lincoln is calling for 2-4. Not sure it will reach those totals

He's always the most bullish met in the area. I think 2" is easily obtainable. I'm still not comfortable forecasting amounts and will continue to not be until tomorrow morning.

[jaster220]

  12k NAM bullish on accum's much further south in The Mitt. Other's were limiting to APX on north

 

[jaster220]

He's always the most bullish met in the area. I think 2" is easily obtainable. I'm still not comfortable forecasting amounts and will continue to not be until tomorrow morning.

 

True nail-biter for OMA. Like you say, wait and see which way this goes during nowcast..

[hlcater]

There's gonna be some impressive banding/rates in the cold sector tomorrow over central/northeast Nebraska. Per HRRR, significant negative omega/intense lift perfectly collocated with the DGZ is going to lead to very impressive rates(perhaps approaching or exceeding 1.5-2"/hr??) and potentially slightly better ratios as well, depending on how efficiently flakes can form. 

 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2018120100_017_41.69--97.88.png

[jcwxguy]

12k NAM bullish on accum's much further south in The Mitt. Other's were limiting to APX on north

 

. 3k Nam is much less

[clintbeed1993]

Just getting socked with rain right now.  Really annoying when you know this could be a massive snowstorm and you're getting gully gushed with an inch or 2 of cold rain.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Hrrr did look good here for a while for early changeover but went all gfs on us

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Really quiet in here lol

[Stormhunter87]

Really quiet in here lol

Hoping for a freak moment where cold shoots in. Lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Hrrr looks good then goes back again. We wont know up until hours before it

[Minny_Weather]

Temps are a couple degrees below where they were supposed to be right now. That could be huge. I'm not sure what's up with HRRR but I think it's cuckoo for cocoa puffs. With a North wind and dynamic cooling from the precip taking place, I really don't see temps warming tomorrow.

As for right now, steadily raining. I'd pay money for it to be cooler right now. 34.9°F.

[snowstorm83]

Temps are a couple degrees below where they were supposed to be right now. That could be huge. I'm not sure what's up with HRRR but I think it's cuckoo for cocoa puffs. With a North wind and dynamic cooling from the precip taking place, I really don't see temps warming tomorrow.

As for right now, steadily raining. I'd pay money for it to be cooler right now. 35°F.

GFS has temps in the low 40s tomorrow, which is definitely overdone. Getting stuck around 34-35 with an abundance of precip seems more likely.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has temps in the low 40s tomorrow, which is definitely overdone. Getting stuck around 34-35 with an abundance of precip seems more likely.

Yeah no way temps warm under these conditions. There's no way for warmer air to get here in the first place. We have a way higher likelihood of limping our way to the freezing mark than going the other way. We have the wind working in our favor so let's git er dun.

[jcwxguy]

Nam vs hrrr at 13z tomorrow is a big difference, hrrr is a good 50+miles west with the low,

 

Edit: next few frames looked closer to nam

[Stormhunter87]

The nam has been pretty consistent the past two days except for that one run. Hmmm if it holds I won't be upset

[Stormhunter87]

So odd the maps between pivotal and tropical are different on the same run.

[jaster220]

. 3k Nam is much less

 

Don't care. Leave me to my weenie runs

[gosaints]

So odd the maps between pivotal and tropical are different on the same run.

tropical 10:1 snow maps tend to throw sleet in with the snow...

[Craig-OmahaWX]

It is possible that an advisory may eventually be needed at some point for the area from Lincoln to Omaha, possibly Saturday night into Sunday, but no changes on the warning or advisory areas at this time.

[jaster220]

In just about any other autumn, a hazards map as seen attm on Nov 30th would be a welcome sight for the oncoming winter. Lol that it's a disappointment over here after such a snowy November. I've totally forgotten "normal"

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR is continuing to go full blown Korean war with the rain/snow line tomorrow in Lancaster County.

[clintbeed1993]

If anyone has latest short range model snowfall maps please post them, thank you.

[Stormhunter87]

It says 38 here but that wind is starting to bite

[Minny_Weather]

Welp I jinxed myself by talking about how good temps are here cuz now the temp has risen. ****. 37.4*F. I'm hoping it falls back down when the wind goes from Easterly to NE.

[Money]

Enjoy the 33 and rain. Gotta love it

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The HRRR is going ape with the snow in Douglas county here. It literally jumped south. All we need now is half a counties worth of easterly movement. Also, the HRRR has wind gusts of 50-60 MPH as the band is moving through, heck, maybe even 60-65 MPH gusts.

[Minny_Weather]

The HRRR is going ape s**t with the snow in Douglas county here. It literally jumped south. All we need now is half a counties worth of easterly movement. Also, the HRRR has wind gusts of 50-60 MPH as the band is moving through, heck, maybe even 60-65 MPH gusts.

Describing Lancaster County on the models over the past few days. The rain/snow line has been maybe 20 miles away from me but still in the county. That's within the margin of error still by a ton. Though I'm saying at this rate thermals aren't looking too hot. Maybe better in Douglas County.

[Stormhunter87]

So what's its worth radar app showing a change over in Iowa. Nothing north and west yet

[Stormhunter87]

And holy hell that is a change in the hrrr hot dam