12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[Minny_Weather]

I'm gonna go to sleep now. Hopefully I'm pleasantly surprised in the morning.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Set your alarm for 9 AM. Could be interesting.

[Money]

I see no changes at all

[clintbeed1993]

My location is literally in the jack zone for precipitation.  Heavy rain continues to fall and we've gotten over an inch already with heavy rain continuing to pivot through.  I'm really pissed that all this is being wasted on rain.

[gabel23]

My location is literally in the jack zone for precipitation. Heavy rain continues to fall and we've gotten over an inch already with heavy rain continuing to pivot through. I'm really pissed that all this is being wasted on rain.

As of an hour ago had 1/2” of rain with 2.5” of precipitation to go (according to qpf forecast.) Figure another couple hours of rain comes to a total of 1.5” at most.....you still have another inch to go for a max of 10 of snow figuring a 10-1 ratio. If we can get some dynamic cooling occurring this morning snow can pile up rather quickly. Plus we have those thunderstorms wrapping back into the comma head; this is a very mature cyclone that can throw a lot of surprises at us. Or we are gonna have one hell of a rain storm to open up December. Side note @Tom; this has to be the first cycle in the LRC as I got 2.7” of rain on October 7th thru the 10th

[Stormhunter87]

Nam 3k going bonkers, regular nam not as much but still a good amount. And yeah that is alot of rain moving up. Last time I was out it was a very cold rain too

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow...3km NAM going absolutely ape .

 

[clintbeed1993]

Friggin temps are stuck.  Drop you bastard!

[gabel23]

Wow...3km NAM going absolutely ape s**t.

 

To me it appears the short range models are slowing this system down. My percentage for snow from Hastings has gone up with their last update by 3”! Snow looks to wrap around the comma head into Sunday, we might have a surprise on our hands.

[jcwxguy]

Lancaster county added to wwa

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like the rain/snow line hasn't even reached the tri cities yet

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Of course, no advisory for Omaha yet. Lol

[Minny_Weather]

Definitely not looking good for any of Nebraska right now. Still rain for most of the state save for far Western portions. Rain/snow line was supposed to have made it halfway across the state by now.

[CentralNebWeather]

Change to snow has occurred. A light covering as of 5 am

[Money]

Wow...3km NAM going absolutely ape s**t.

 

Stop using tropical tidbits for this system

[CentralNebWeather]

0.25 visibility and heavy snow falling. Should be a wild time.

[clintbeed1993]

Been snowing here an hour or so and we've got a coating now.  Hoping some better returns pivot through later.  Definitely not behind schedule. NWS had all rain until after noon a couple hours ago.  Let's see if it stays snow as we head into the afternoon.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Money, i will use it if i want too ok? If you have a problem well thats too bad! Lol

[CentralNebWeather]

Been snowing here an hour or so and we've got a coating now. Hoping some better returns pivot through later. Definitely not behind schedule. NWS had all rain until after noon a couple hours ago. Let's see if it stays snow as we head into the afternoon.

Very heavy band coming through here, snowing like crazy and the wind is increasing. You are correct, if it stays snow we should get really good amounts.

[Stormhunter87]

No liking the dry air I keep seeing on all the short range models

[Madtown]

There's and eye on the radar loop! almost overhead of Superior, NE

[Minny_Weather]

There's and eye on the radar loop! almost overhead of Superior, NE

No like there's ACTUALLY a friggin eye

[St Paul Storm]

A very nice write up this morning from MPX that explains this system:

 

An absolutely beautiful winter storm on water vapor imagery was

lifting north into southern Kansas this morning, with a pronounced

trowal already in place. This storm has everything going for it to

become a classic early winter high impact blizzard, but it`s missing

one key ingredient, arctic air. Broad ridging, with a rex block

trying to form over the Canadian Prairies has shut off the arctic

from us and this has two key impacts that will limit the bite of the

storm. First, model soundings show winds in excess of 50 kts down

to 1500 ft AGL, but without strong CAA to the north of the low, we

are not developing a well mixed, deep CAA boundary layer, so we are

not tapping into these stronger winds. In addition, in the summer,

storms live off of convective instability, in winter, it`s

baroclinic instability that feeds these low pressure systems. With

no arctic air, we don`t have that baroclinic instability, which is

why this storm will be rapidly losing steam just as it starts to

impact southern MN, just as convection in the summer fizzles once it

becomes removed from the convective instability feeding it

[CentralNebWeather]

No like there's ACTUALLY a friggin eye

That is amazing. Low much farther west than many models ever predicted I believe

[St Paul Storm]

That’s an awesome landcane on radar.

[Minny_Weather]

Still have a very bad feeling about this. I'm at 37.0*F and temps are doing absolutely nothing at all. The storm is at its strongest. Like Clint said earlier, I'm pissed that we're wasting the best of this storm on rain. And the changeover may not occur until sunset tonight which would set us up for only backside snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Still have a very bad feeling about this. I'm at 37.0*F and temps are doing absolutely nothing at all. The storm is at its strongest. Like Clint said earlier, I'm pissed that we're wasting the best of this storm on rain. And the changeover may not occur until sunset tonight which would set us up for only backside snow.

Need the low to move east. I know how you feel. This is a lot of wasted moisture at 37 degrees for eastern Nebraska. Been there before, it stinks.

[Minny_Weather]

I retract my last post. I'm now glad it's all rain thanks to the monster dry slot incoming. If ptype was snow I'd be pissed.

[bud2380]

Lots of warm air still. Even areas it’s snowing in NE look to be between 33-35 degrees at the surface. That’s gonna cut into snow totals if it can’t drop to 32 or lower. Those of you in Lincoln and Omaha have little hope and frankly never did. Sorry. I’m rooting for a surprise for you but I don’t see it happening.

[gosaints]

12km super juiced have had a storm trend wetter this close for a long time. Will see if it comes through. Currently 28. Precip a couple hours away

[Minny_Weather]

Lots of warm air still. Even areas it’s snowing in NE look to be between 33-35 degrees at the surface. That’s gonna cut into snow totals if it can’t drop to 32 or lower. Those of you in Lincoln and Omaha have little hope and frankly never did. Sorry. I’m rooting for a surprise for you but I don’t see it happening.

I wouldn't say we never had hope. Like I said before, thermals are a very nowcast type thing and I stand by that statement. We are in the shitter now and I have zero hope of getting anything higher than 3" of snow.

[Bryan1117]

Some snow and sleet now mixing with the heavier bands of rain here in Omaha. Already some light slushy accumulations from the mix.

[Minny_Weather]

Reports of slushy flakes up by the airport here. Still just rain here as the fast & furious dry slot approaches.

[WeatherFanOMA]

Changing to sleet and snow in west omaha right now. Im sure it will be short lived.....

[Stormhunter87]

Changing to sleet and snow in west omaha right now. Im sure it will be short lived.....

Dry air is close but that change over is 3 hours early by the best estimate

[Stormhunter87]

Heavy sleet here currently

[jcwxguy]

Snowing in Fremont (working in Fremont today)

[Minny_Weather]

The dry air has moved over here. Ptype was rain when it ended. 36.9*F.

 

We'll have to pull off a miracle if we wanna support snow by the time the precip comes back towards here.

[Grizzcoat]

Wife and kid say huge flakes on W side of DSM-- too bad it wont last long.

[bud2380]

I should have clarified for Omaha and Lincoln. I’m talking the front end snows. The back end wrap around is anyone’s guess but usually wrap around snow will amount to a T to 2” at best. Grounds will be wet so accums will be tough.