12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[Iowawx]

12Z GFS has 6 inches of snow for Cedar Rapids on Saturday. Not totally sure I believe that because of the rain that falls before the cold air moves in. Something to keep an eye on however. 

[Minny_Weather]

Only out to hr 24 on weathermodels, but I looked at the MSLP map on Tropical Tidbits and it looks to take a St. Joe track then cut sharp North from there. If temps are cold that would be a perfect track for here. It'd suck for everyone else on this board but it'd be good for here. We'll see what the precip looks like when it gets into weathermodels range.

[St Paul Storm]

Hr 120 it’s in central IA at 994mb. Colder run.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is still garbage for here despite my last post. Rain rain rain. Only positive is it is starting to KIND OF pick up the second wave. Not showing much though.

[St Paul Storm]

Through Sunday night.

[james1976]

Tracking thru C IA would suck for mby!

[james1976]

Well the trends are looking better and more south anyway.

[GDR]

This has Chicago monster written all over it

[CentralNebWeather]

Appears more south than previous Euro runs.  Having 2 different storms might be adding to models having some differences.  Every storm is unique, it has been fascinating watching so far this year.  At least there is something to track compared to the minimal chances of the past few years.

[St Paul Storm]

Yup. Euro is making big trends south the last 3 runs. Wash, rinse and repeat.

[Grizzcoat]

I think this beomes a ST Paul Storm special and the L cuts right up E.IA-- even more then this says. Watch out Twin Cities!!!!

[Niko]

Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me.

[Niko]

This storm is huge

[james1976]

Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.

Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

[St Paul Storm]

12z EPS looks a little bit north of the op Euro, slightly weaker.

[St Paul Storm]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.pngI think this beomes a ST Paul Storm special and the L cuts right up E.IA-- even more then this says. Watch out Twin Cities!!!!

Meh. I’m not so confident. When the Euro trends the wrong direction, it’s not a good sign.

[jcwxguy]

Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.

Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112712/180/snku_acc.us_mw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112712/180/snku_acc.us_c.png

[james1976]

 

Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.

Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112712/180/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Lock it in!

[jcwxguy]

Lock it in!

that was regular GFS,. Fv3..

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018112712/180/snku_acc.us_c.png

[james1976]

 

Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.

Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112712/180/snku_acc.us_mw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112712/180/snku_acc.us_c.png

Now that's sharing the wealth!

[gabel23]

CPC agrees! How about a nice share the wealth storm for all! 

[james1976]

2 weeks in a row tracking a big storm. Nice pattern

[hlcater]

After last week's burn, it's gonna be hard for me to get excited until flakes are flying.

[East Dubzz]

FYI - that GFS map above includes both storms.

[james1976]

CPC agrees! How about a nice share the wealth storm for all!

That's awesome. Going by the dates you can see they are thinking both storms for that swath.

[Stormhunter87]

First of all what is the CPC seeing for 1st? The 18z nam setting it just like last weekend's storm just warmer. Edit just check cpc I'm not seeing that map.

 

Double edit - now CPC map is showing it.

[Stormhunter87]

Winter prediction center is favouring the euro.

[james1976]

FYI - that GFS map above includes both storms.

Yeah I noticed. I'd be totally happy with that from both systems.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah I noticed. I'd be totally happy with that from both systems.

Just wanted to clarify, because I was super confused when I first saw it.

 

On that note, the 12z Euro is slightly confusing. Where does the storm go between HR 96 and 120? Is Hr 120 combining two storms? So many questions!

[East Dubzz]

It’s long term NAM so who knows, but it seems to be quite a bit further south than most of the other models.

 

Also looks like maybe it’s pulling down more cold air than the GFS?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro is not garbage. It gives us almost 6 inches

[Stormhunter87]

It’s long term NAM so who knows, but it seems to be quite a bit further south than most of the other models.

Also looks like maybe it’s pulling down more cold air than the GFS?

Maybe but from the looks of it NAM is favouring an ice event here in Omaha.

[jaster220]

This has Chicago monster written all over it

 

Not sure we wanna be in the bull's eye this far out? 

[CentralNebWeather]

Now that's sharing the wealth!

Nice.  I would take that amount anytime.

[Niko]

Models will have a better handle of this as the event gets closer. Hopefully, a lot peeps on here get a ton of snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

CPC agrees! How about a nice share the wealth storm for all! 

That would sure be good for most members on here.  

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is not garbage. It gives us almost 6 inches

1) I was saying that before it showed the end of the second wave. Still, it's disappointing to see that it makes the first wave solely rain for both of us, with the rain/snow line up in Northeast Nebraska.

 

2) Where are you seeing 6"? I see 4" for both of us.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yikes. Gfs all rain here. And not a spread the wealth storm lol

[Minny_Weather]

Yikes. Gfs all rain here. And not a spread the wealth storm lol

Meh. It's 18Z. I wouldn't be surprised if that ended up being the case but I'm not gonna be too worried about it until 00Z says the same thing.

[Stormgeek]

Patiently waiting to see this mysterious white precipitation again sometime. Was around for a couple weeks when it was frigid, but been gone for a while now. Hoping for something out of this (but not holding out hope)