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12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

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#51
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:11 PM

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Attached File  ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png   68.72KB   3 downloadsI think this beomes a ST Paul Storm special and the L cuts right up E.IA-- even more then this says. Watch out Twin Cities!!!!


2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#52
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:14 PM

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Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me.

:huh:



#53
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:15 PM

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This storm is huge



#54
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:18 PM

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Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.
Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

#55
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:20 PM

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12z EPS looks a little bit north of the op Euro, slightly weaker.

#56
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:23 PM

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attachicon.gifecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.pngI think this beomes a ST Paul Storm special and the L cuts right up E.IA-- even more then this says. Watch out Twin Cities!!!!


Meh. I’m not so confident. When the Euro trends the wrong direction, it’s not a good sign.

#57
jcwxguy

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:24 PM

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Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.
Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

snku_acc.us_mw.pngsnku_acc.us_c.png
  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#58
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:26 PM

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Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.
Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

snku_acc.us_mw.png
Lock it in!

#59
jcwxguy

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:29 PM

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Lock it in!

that was regular GFS,. Fv3..

snku_acc.us_c.png
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#60
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:30 PM

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Even that Euro run is putting down 4" imby. Another sharp cutoff. Dang.
Can anyone post a GFS snowfall map?? Thanks in advance

snku_acc.us_mw.pngsnku_acc.us_c.png
Now that's sharing the wealth!
  • CentralNebWeather and Clinton like this

#61
gabel23

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:35 PM

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CPC agrees! How about a nice share the wealth storm for all! 

Attached Files


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#62
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:36 PM

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2 weeks in a row tracking a big storm. Nice pattern
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#63
hlcater

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:41 PM

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After last week's burn, it's gonna be hard for me to get excited until flakes are flying.


  • gabel23, jaster220, Grizzcoat and 1 other like this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 19.4"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan 22: 5.0") 

Formerly NWLinn


#64
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:48 PM

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FYI - that GFS map above includes both storms.

#65
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:53 PM

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CPC agrees! How about a nice share the wealth storm for all!

That's awesome. Going by the dates you can see they are thinking both storms for that swath.

#66
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:53 PM

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First of all what is the CPC seeing for 1st? The 18z nam setting it just like last weekend's storm just warmer. Edit just check cpc I'm not seeing that map.

Double edit - now CPC map is showing it.

#67
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:59 PM

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Winter prediction center is favouring the euro.

#68
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:00 PM

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FYI - that GFS map above includes both storms.

Yeah I noticed. I'd be totally happy with that from both systems.

#69
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Yeah I noticed. I'd be totally happy with that from both systems.


Just wanted to clarify, because I was super confused when I first saw it.

On that note, the 12z Euro is slightly confusing. Where does the storm go between HR 96 and 120? Is Hr 120 combining two storms? So many questions!
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#70
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:08 PM

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It’s long term NAM so who knows, but it seems to be quite a bit further south than most of the other models.

Also looks like maybe it’s pulling down more cold air than the GFS?

#71
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:10 PM

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Euro is not garbage. It gives us almost 6 inches
  • jaster220 likes this

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#72
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:11 PM

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It’s long term NAM so who knows, but it seems to be quite a bit further south than most of the other models.
Also looks like maybe it’s pulling down more cold air than the GFS?


Maybe but from the looks of it NAM is favouring an ice event here in Omaha.

#73
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:11 PM

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This has Chicago monster written all over it

 

Not sure we wanna be in the bull's eye this far out? 


  • St Paul Storm likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#74
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Now that's sharing the wealth!

Nice.  I would take that amount anytime.



#75
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Models will have a better handle of this as the event gets closer. Hopefully, a lot peeps on here get a ton of snow.



#76
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:17 PM

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CPC agrees! How about a nice share the wealth storm for all! 

That would sure be good for most members on here.  



#77
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Euro is not garbage. It gives us almost 6 inches

1) I was saying that before it showed the end of the second wave. Still, it's disappointing to see that it makes the first wave solely rain for both of us, with the rain/snow line up in Northeast Nebraska.

 

2) Where are you seeing 6"? I see 4" for both of us.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#78
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:56 PM

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Yikes. Gfs all rain here. And not a spread the wealth storm lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#79
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 01:58 PM

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Yikes. Gfs all rain here. And not a spread the wealth storm lol

Meh. It's 18Z. I wouldn't be surprised if that ended up being the case but I'm not gonna be too worried about it until 00Z says the same thing.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#80
Stormgeek

Posted 27 November 2018 - 02:09 PM

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Patiently waiting to see this mysterious white precipitation again sometime. Was around for a couple weeks when it was frigid, but been gone for a while now. Hoping for something out of this (but not holding out hope)

#81
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 02:15 PM

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Not sure we wanna be in the bull's eye this far out? 

True



#82
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 03:35 PM

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18z Fv3 shows alot of rain and quick change over in Omaha. Souix city gets slammed. Also keeps the second storm south.

#83
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 03:42 PM

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So the Euro is trending south and the GFS is trending north.

#84
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 03:51 PM

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Seems like the previous storm. South is a likely outcome.

2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#85
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:39 PM

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00Z NAM basically turns the storm into a panhandle hook. Low @ 999 near Wichita Falls, TX @ hr 72


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#86
Money

Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:45 PM

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Hr 84

https://tropicaltidb...018112800&fh=84

#87
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:46 PM

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Well that run was very... rogue. And somehow the precip is displaced in a manner where all the same people get precip.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#88
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:54 PM

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Need more cold air.

#89
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:00 PM

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540 line never makes it in so rain based on the nam :(

#90
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:08 PM

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NAM is a lot colder though, and the very beginnings of the storm is at the very end of a short range model. Usually not a model you want to use when its 84 plus hours out anyways.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#91
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:17 PM

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0z Icon is really developing quite a storm with snow on the backside through 90 hours. 987 Low west of KC.

#92
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:27 PM

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0z NAM with the low near St Louis while the ICON has it in C KS at hr 84

#93
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:31 PM

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Icon looks great but still to warm. Wish we could get a nice flow of cold air to move in.
  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#94
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:38 PM

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I don't get what's driving such a significant SLP (keep seeing 987 or 989 mb) without cold air to play with? Seems counter intuitive if you ask me.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:40 PM

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Icon definitely has 2 storms. It will be interesting to see the other models

#96
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:40 PM

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Wants to destroy E Neb on the 3rd tho..

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#97
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:43 PM

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Nice 2nd storm on that ICON run, even tho verbatim it screws mby. Has that same "jumping SLP" look that models had on yesterday's storm for a while. Oh well, something to monitor I guess


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#98
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:47 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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NAM for recent bliz zone says get your canoes ready - ugly Nina like scenario of last winter if this plays out

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#99
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:48 PM

LNK_Weather

    Opinions don't care about your feelings

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Literally no difference between 18Z and 00Z GFS @ hr 72 besides being maybe a degree colder.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#100
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:49 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

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GFS out to h72 agrees


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."