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12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

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#101
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:50 PM

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Literally no difference between 18Z and 00Z GFS @ hr 72 besides being maybe a degree colder.

 

You mean I'll be 43F and RN instead of 44F and RN? Fantastic news, thx


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#102
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:53 PM

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Welp. 1st wave is crap on the GFS. Nothing but buzzkilling rain.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#103
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:56 PM

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Yep. 992 mb a little more realistic but still too far north for you guys even. SPS in Minny may get this one.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#104
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:58 PM

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With the first wave so strong, it makes me question the 2nd one as modeled. Was mentioned that they will struggle with waves close together, emphasizing one or the other as strong, or maybe incorrectly showing both as strong.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#105
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:59 PM

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Welp. 1st wave is crap on the GFS. Nothing but buzzkilling rain.

 

by h96 you get consolation flakes flying


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#106
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:59 PM

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Welp. 1st wave is crap on the GFS. Nothing but buzzkilling rain.


Some decent snows for northern Nebraska and northern Iowa.
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#107
clintbeed1993

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:59 PM

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I swear if Central Nebraska gets split with heavy snow from the last storm 2 counties south to heavy snow north with this next storm I'm gunna strangle someone.  This pattern is literally perfect for I 80 and yet it may not produce jack.


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#108
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:02 PM

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dry slot into SMI ~h100  This is one time I wish the ds was much larger. 16 hrs of rain. Be back to bare ground outside of mall parking lot piles. Have to keep reminding myself it's not mid-winter :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#109
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:03 PM

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Some decent snows for northern Nebraska and northern Iowa.

 

True verbatim. We got any peeps in the path? Nice swath if you're in the narrow jack zone


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#110
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:06 PM

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I'm afraid when we do get the real deal cold, these will all be EC specials.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#111
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:09 PM

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Funny, next week when cold air arrives, so does dry weather.



#112
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:12 PM

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Some decent snows for northern Nebraska and northern Iowa.

Those are the same areas that finished 20" above average the past 2 Winters.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#113
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:12 PM

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Yep. 992 mb a little more realistic but still too far north for you guys even. SPS in Minny may get this one.


Baby steppin on the GFS but I’m not biting yet. Way too early. I’ve seen this act before.

#114
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:13 PM

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No bueno. Out to h144 and 2nd wave MIA.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#115
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:14 PM

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I swear if Central Nebraska gets split with heavy snow from the last storm 2 counties south to heavy snow north with this next storm I'm gunna strangle someone.  This pattern is literally perfect for I 80 and yet it may not produce jack.

Heavy snow and the 80 East of Kearney. Name 2 bigger polar opposites.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#116
jcwxguy

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:15 PM

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GFS says what 2nd wave
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#117
Madtown

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:15 PM

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drier and colder than normal here and I'm sticking to it till anything looks different. is what it is

#118
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:17 PM

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Reminds me of when the models were taking turns flashing a bomb over the Mitt for the Nov 10th storm. Each one amped a different piece of energy. Made it look like we might have several bombs within a few day's time. Prolly happening again with these (2?) waves


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#119
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:17 PM

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FWIW: Saturday IMBY shows rain w temps in the 40s both day n night.



#120
clintbeed1993

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:17 PM

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Heavy snow and the 80 East of Kearney. Name 2 bigger polar opposites.

 

Well this is more frustrating than usual. We usually don't have 2 weeks of storms taking literally perfect tracks for this area only to get snubbed somehow.


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#121
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:18 PM

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I'm punting on this one. Every time I give up hope storms come back here on models so maybe it'll work again here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#122
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:18 PM

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GEM with a 983 in S/C MN and I’m getting rained on. What a waste.

#123
Niko

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:19 PM

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Models are very confused. I'll definitely feel more confident by Friday...even though, my area gets a soaker :lol:


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#124
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:33 PM

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Wow.....thats all i can say.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#125
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:37 PM

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If it's any consolation... GFS is showing a strong storm 10 days out!  :lol:


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#126
Clinton

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:45 PM

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Past Sat. the models are all jacked up.  Punt on these and try again tomorrow.



#127
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:52 PM

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Won’t get any better than the Fv3 up this way. West and stronger. Can’t wait to check the Euro in the morning and see a Chicago smash job.

#128
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:13 PM

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FV3 with quite a storm for NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, & NW Iowa.

Definitely expecting some rain showers here over the weekend.

#129
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:18 PM

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FV3 with quite a storm for NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, & NW Iowa.

Definitely expecting some rain showers here over the weekend.

It's quicker with the changeover here too. Has the rain/snow line hitting here Saturday morning.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#130
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:31 PM

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Not a bad run on the fv3 although still want the change over sooner. That low track is to perfect to waste on rain.

#131
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:32 PM

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Candain also a bit further south.

#132
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:35 PM

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Icon by far the best run. Really puts a punch with that second storm

#133
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:52 PM

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Temperatures are something that no model will be able to really nail down and we'll need to wait and see.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#134
jcwxguy

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:05 PM

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Euro at hr 72 looks like it's going to go neg tilt sooner, maybe,

Row.row row your boat

Hr 96 low is at Nebraska city

#135
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:17 PM

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UKMET continues WAY South- near the Boot heel of Misery at hr96


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#136
jcwxguy

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:24 PM

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UKMET continues WAY South- near the Boot heel of Misery at hr96

looks too warm though

#137
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:26 PM

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And the ultimate ******* award goes toooooo the EURO. Big fat hole of nothing over Omaha.

 

z63v09.png


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#138
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:38 PM

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Euro not bad for the W Burbs of the Twin Cities. Should make St Paul Storm get a little more excited and I will be in that neck of the woods.....

 

MSP from the EURO-

SAT 06Z 01-DEC  -3.2     2.0    1015      85      13    0.00     554     542    
SAT 12Z 01-DEC  -2.9     2.7    1010      86      16    0.00     550     543    
SAT 18Z 01-DEC   0.5     1.3    1002      74      57    0.01     543     542    
SUN 00Z 02-DEC   1.1    -4.0     998      91      81    0.49     538     539    
SUN 06Z 02-DEC   1.1    -2.9     998      87      88    0.06     537     539    
SUN 12Z 02-DEC   0.9    -4.1    1000      89      94    0.08     537     537    
SUN 18Z 02-DEC   0.7    -4.7    1004      85      90    0.03     538     535 

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#139
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:00 PM

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its a new day tomorrow. hopefully some better trends as well!


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#140
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 November 2018 - 12:47 AM

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Craig should love the 06Z NAM at 84Hr--- :D


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#141
james1976

Posted 28 November 2018 - 01:36 AM

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How's the Euro look for N IA?

#142
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 November 2018 - 01:53 AM

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How's the Euro look for N IA?

mainly NW IA. Craigs map above shows it.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#143
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 November 2018 - 02:08 AM

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MPX seems all in ; DMX has no clue. OAX low confidence but see 1-4"

 

For the weekend system, plenty of spread and uncertainty still
exists, though we are seeing models beginning to narrow in on a
solution, with confidence increasing that at least parts of the MPX
area will be dealing with precipitation. All the guidance shows
this system taking on a negative tilt as it comes out onto the
southern high Plains on Friday, with an intensification Friday night
before it starts occluding on Saturday. The source of the problems
with resolving this forecast can be found up in Canada. 500 height
anomalies across Canada basically show a broad ridge being in place
from coast to coast. This ridge will cause this system to both stall
out as it is moving north, then move almost due east. It`s the how
far north that stall happens, then how quickly it moves east
where the uncertainty remains. However the spread is diminishing
with the Canadian the farthest north, the GFS is farthest
southeast (though now shows snow reaching up to the I-90 corridor),
with the ECMWF in between, though closer to the Canadian.

Beside slowing the system down, the higher heights across Canada
will cut the arctic air off from the system this weekend, which
leads to a warmer system and a high deal of uncertainty with p-types
as we will likely deal with some sort of mix to all snow scenario,
though if this system were to get as far north as the Canadian, it
would be mainly rain. At this point given the strength of the ridge
to the north, we do not find the northern solution from the Canadian
very plausible, with a more southern track likely, which puts
the MPX area in a more snow situation. However, how much is pretty
tough to predict with any certainty. GEFS snow plumes (with 10:1
ratio) range anywhere from 0 to 13 inches at MSP. Though when
looking at the probability of getting 6 or more inches on the GEFS,
there`s a healthy swath of probabilities between 50% and 75% across
southern MN into western WI. This indicates there`s a pretty good
chance we`ll see a swath of 6-10" of snow when all is said and done,
it`s just a matter of where. Given all of the spread that still
exists, stayed with the blended forecast, but we will begin
mentioning the heavy snow threat within the HWO.

 

DMX-

Bottom line, while confidence is low in the details, it does look
increasingly likely that Iowa will be impacted to some degree by
a winter storm this weekend.

 

OAX-

Confidence quite low at this point trying to pin down precip type,
placement Friday night through Saturday evening as well as overall
snow amounts.

Nevertheless, ECM 24hr advertise snow accumulations from 1" to 3"
ending 00Z Monday while the GFS generally has 2" or so. Meanwhile
GFS Cobb indicates close to 4" at Norfolk and an inch or so at
Omaha/Lincoln. Of course amounts will change if timing of cold air
advection deviates from current thinking.

As for precip type, Cobb timing transition through the day on
Saturday looks reasonable with gradual change from
liquid/freezing/frozen north to south.


  • jaster220 likes this

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#144
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 November 2018 - 03:10 AM

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Thinking the jackpot, if you can call it that  for our viewers (none  I know of in the Metropolis between O'neill and Valentine NE) seems to be in the Gosaints area or St Paul Storm. System a few days ago trended S- I think this one trends N. Just my .02.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#145
Money

Posted 28 November 2018 - 03:18 AM

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Both gfs and gfs FV3 trended south from 0z

#146
GDR

Posted 28 November 2018 - 04:31 AM

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It’s going to be a soaker for a lot of us.

#147
Tom

Posted 28 November 2018 - 04:53 AM

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00z EPS likes the N NE/SD to Minny special...

 

 


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#148
james1976

Posted 28 November 2018 - 05:29 AM

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2nd wave is looking weaker. Our only chance may be from this first system.
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#149
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 November 2018 - 05:44 AM

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Euro not bad for the W Burbs of the Twin Cities. Should make St Paul Storm get a little more excited and I will be in that neck of the woods.....
 
MSP from the EURO-
SAT 06Z 01-DEC -3.2 2.0 1015 85 13 0.00 554 542
SAT 12Z 01-DEC -2.9 2.7 1010 86 16 0.00 550 543
SAT 18Z 01-DEC 0.5 1.3 1002 74 57 0.01 543 542
SUN 00Z 02-DEC 1.1 -4.0 998 91 81 0.49 538 539
SUN 06Z 02-DEC 1.1 -2.9 998 87 88 0.06 537 539
SUN 12Z 02-DEC 0.9 -4.1 1000 89 94 0.08 537 537
SUN 18Z 02-DEC 0.7 -4.7 1004 85 90 0.03 538 535


Thanks for posting this. I’d take ~6” and run with it.
  • jaster220 likes this

#150
East Dubzz

Posted 28 November 2018 - 05:45 AM

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Going just off the GFS and FV3, I’m actually not far away from some decent snows.