12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[Minny_Weather]

I'm punting on this one. Every time I give up hope storms come back here on models so maybe it'll work again here.

[St Paul Storm]

GEM with a 983 in S/C MN and I’m getting rained on. What a waste.

[Niko]

Models are very confused. I'll definitely feel more confident by Friday...even though, my area gets a soaker

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow.....thats all i can say.

[Minny_Weather]

If it's any consolation... GFS is showing a strong storm 10 days out! 

[Clinton]

Past Sat. the models are all jacked up.  Punt on these and try again tomorrow.

[St Paul Storm]

Won’t get any better than the Fv3 up this way. West and stronger. Can’t wait to check the Euro in the morning and see a Chicago smash job.

[East Dubzz]

FV3 with quite a storm for NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, & NW Iowa.

 

Definitely expecting some rain showers here over the weekend.

[Minny_Weather]

FV3 with quite a storm for NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, & NW Iowa.

 

Definitely expecting some rain showers here over the weekend.

It's quicker with the changeover here too. Has the rain/snow line hitting here Saturday morning.

[Stormhunter87]

Not a bad run on the fv3 although still want the change over sooner. That low track is to perfect to waste on rain.

[Stormhunter87]

Candain also a bit further south.

[Stormhunter87]

Icon by far the best run. Really puts a punch with that second storm

[Minny_Weather]

Temperatures are something that no model will be able to really nail down and we'll need to wait and see.

[jcwxguy]

Euro at hr 72 looks like it's going to go neg tilt sooner, maybe,

 

Row.row row your boat

 

Hr 96 low is at Nebraska city

[Grizzcoat]

UKMET continues WAY South- near the Boot heel of Misery at hr96

[jcwxguy]

UKMET continues WAY South- near the Boot heel of Misery at hr96

looks too warm though

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And the ultimate ******* award goes toooooo the EURO. Big fat hole of nothing over Omaha.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro not bad for the W Burbs of the Twin Cities. Should make St Paul Storm get a little more excited and I will be in that neck of the woods.....

 

MSP from the EURO-

SAT 06Z 01-DEC  -3.2     2.0    1015      85      13    0.00     554     542    SAT 12Z 01-DEC  -2.9     2.7    1010      86      16    0.00     550     543    SAT 18Z 01-DEC   0.5     1.3    1002      74      57    0.01     543     542    SUN 00Z 02-DEC   1.1    -4.0     998      91      81    0.49     538     539    SUN 06Z 02-DEC   1.1    -2.9     998      87      88    0.06     537     539    SUN 12Z 02-DEC   0.9    -4.1    1000      89      94    0.08     537     537    SUN 18Z 02-DEC   0.7    -4.7    1004      85      90    0.03     538     535 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

its a new day tomorrow. hopefully some better trends as well!

[Grizzcoat]

Craig should love the 06Z NAM at 84Hr---

[james1976]

How's the Euro look for N IA?

[Grizzcoat]

How's the Euro look for N IA?

mainly NW IA. Craigs map above shows it.

[Grizzcoat]

MPX seems all in ; DMX has no clue. OAX low confidence but see 1-4"

 

For the weekend system, plenty of spread and uncertainty still
exists, though we are seeing models beginning to narrow in on a
solution, with confidence increasing that at least parts of the MPX
area will be dealing with precipitation. All the guidance shows
this system taking on a negative tilt as it comes out onto the
southern high Plains on Friday, with an intensification Friday night
before it starts occluding on Saturday. The source of the problems
with resolving this forecast can be found up in Canada. 500 height
anomalies across Canada basically show a broad ridge being in place
from coast to coast. This ridge will cause this system to both stall
out as it is moving north, then move almost due east. It`s the how
far north that stall happens, then how quickly it moves east
where the uncertainty remains. However the spread is diminishing
with the Canadian the farthest north, the GFS is farthest
southeast (though now shows snow reaching up to the I-90 corridor),
with the ECMWF in between, though closer to the Canadian.

Beside slowing the system down, the higher heights across Canada
will cut the arctic air off from the system this weekend, which
leads to a warmer system and a high deal of uncertainty with p-types
as we will likely deal with some sort of mix to all snow scenario,
though if this system were to get as far north as the Canadian, it
would be mainly rain. At this point given the strength of the ridge
to the north, we do not find the northern solution from the Canadian
very plausible, with a more southern track likely, which puts
the MPX area in a more snow situation. However, how much is pretty
tough to predict with any certainty. GEFS snow plumes (with 10:1
ratio) range anywhere from 0 to 13 inches at MSP. Though when
looking at the probability of getting 6 or more inches on the GEFS,
there`s a healthy swath of probabilities between 50% and 75% across
southern MN into western WI. This indicates there`s a pretty good
chance we`ll see a swath of 6-10" of snow when all is said and done,
it`s just a matter of where. Given all of the spread that still
exists, stayed with the blended forecast, but we will begin
mentioning the heavy snow threat within the HWO.

 

DMX-

Bottom line, while confidence is low in the details, it does look
increasingly likely that Iowa will be impacted to some degree by
a winter storm this weekend.

 

OAX-

Confidence quite low at this point trying to pin down precip type,
placement Friday night through Saturday evening as well as overall
snow amounts.

Nevertheless, ECM 24hr advertise snow accumulations from 1" to 3"
ending 00Z Monday while the GFS generally has 2" or so. Meanwhile
GFS Cobb indicates close to 4" at Norfolk and an inch or so at
Omaha/Lincoln. Of course amounts will change if timing of cold air
advection deviates from current thinking.

As for precip type, Cobb timing transition through the day on
Saturday looks reasonable with gradual change from
liquid/freezing/frozen north to south.

[Grizzcoat]

Thinking the jackpot, if you can call it that  for our viewers (none  I know of in the Metropolis between O'neill and Valentine NE) seems to be in the Gosaints area or St Paul Storm. System a few days ago trended S- I think this one trends N. Just my .02.

[Money]

Both gfs and gfs FV3 trended south from 0z

[GDR]

It’s going to be a soaker for a lot of us.

[Tom]

00z EPS likes the N NE/SD to Minny special...

 

 

[james1976]

2nd wave is looking weaker. Our only chance may be from this first system.

[St Paul Storm]

Euro not bad for the W Burbs of the Twin Cities. Should make St Paul Storm get a little more excited and I will be in that neck of the woods.....

 

MSP from the EURO-

SAT 06Z 01-DEC -3.2 2.0 1015 85 13 0.00 554 542

SAT 12Z 01-DEC -2.9 2.7 1010 86 16 0.00 550 543

SAT 18Z 01-DEC 0.5 1.3 1002 74 57 0.01 543 542

SUN 00Z 02-DEC 1.1 -4.0 998 91 81 0.49 538 539

SUN 06Z 02-DEC 1.1 -2.9 998 87 88 0.06 537 539

SUN 12Z 02-DEC 0.9 -4.1 1000 89 94 0.08 537 537

SUN 18Z 02-DEC 0.7 -4.7 1004 85 90 0.03 538 535

 

Thanks for posting this. I’d take ~6” and run with it.

[East Dubzz]

Going just off the GFS and FV3, I’m actually not far away from some decent snows.

[gabel23]

Hastings, NE take on the storm. 

 

Either way the most favored location for heavy accumulating snow
appears at this time to be across northern Nebraska into southern
South Dakota where it would not be surprising to see 6-12 inch
amounts. However, the overall southward shift in the forecast
models over the last 24 hrs now puts our Nebraska counties in play
for possibly seeing several inches of snow in what could be a
prolonged snow event from Friday night through Sunday morning.
This will likely be a major winter storm for portions of the
central plains this weekend and we will continue to monitor it`s
track and strength in the days ahead to see how much of our
forecast area ends up being impacted by this storm system.

[GDR]

Punting good luck

[Money]

Nam looks south this run and colder

[gabel23]

Nam looks south this run and colder

Nam has to be on crack. It's still snowing after this too. The low from hour 78 to hour 84 jumps back to the west in central Iowa. 

[Clinton]

I think the NAM is on the right track.  This storm in this part of the cycle should produce for Nebraska and the Northern half of Iowa. 

[Minny_Weather]

Norfolk with 16". Why am I not surprised.

[Clinton]

I am worried that my storm Monday night may not have enough moisture, but that hasn't been a problem so far.

[Stormhunter87]

That is a massive change in the 12z NAM. But I'll at this point I'll believe it when I see it

[Stormhunter87]

Nam has to be on crack. It's still snowing after this too. The low from hour 78 to hour 84 jumps back to the west in central Iowa.

Icon did something similar on yesterday's run.

[East Dubzz]

That’s got to be the oddest track for a storm I’ve ever seen.

 

From SW Missouri, to West central Missouri, to south central Missouri, to north central Missouri, to NE missouri, to SE Iowa, then back to south central Iowa.