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December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#101
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:04 PM

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Greatest non-weenie of my childhood, closely followed by Steve Pool.

Rich Marriott was the king of non-weenie, and killed so many of my excited snow buzz back in the day. I would get so mad at him when he would say “ 34 degrees and possible snowflake or two above 800ft” when the others would be hyping possible snow.
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#102
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:04 PM

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I used to drive my mom nuts bouncing between channel 4 5 and 7 at about 5:18 pm.

 

 

I did the same thing to my parents growing up in Minnesota... it was channels 4, 5, and 11 there.   :)


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#103
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:06 PM

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I used to drive my mom nuts bouncing between channel 4 5 and 7 at about 5:18 pm.


Yeah I just caught the tail end of Wappler Sr.

This post is not to be taken in any kind of sexual manner.

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#104
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:06 PM

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00Z ECMWF shows an amazing 3 inches of snow at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 10 days.    <_<

Never happen.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#105
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:07 PM

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I used to drive my mom nuts bouncing between channel 4 5 and 7 at about 5:18 pm.

We had two VCR’s in the house so I would tape the two channels and watch the 3rd between 5:18 and 5:27pm and then compare between Renner, Pool, and Wappler.
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#106
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:08 PM

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The 00Z ECMWF looks pretty good at day 10... a deep trough looks like its about descend down us from the NW which should finally be good for mountain snow.   

The long range always seems to look good.  I just hope the delay in the storms hitting us is more due to the weakening of the first storms trying to break down the ridge, which the models don't realize early on.  



#107
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:09 PM

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Never happen.

 

 

Might not even get 3 inches.

 

There is barely any precip at all over the next 10 days.    Its starting to get better late on day 10 though.



#108
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:09 PM

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Jim Little was a truth speaking son of a *****.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#109
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:09 PM

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Rich Marriott was the king of non-weenie, and killed so many of my excited snow buzz back in the day. I would get so mad at him when he would say “ 34 degrees and possible snowflake or two above 800ft” when the others would be hyping possible snow.


Marriott was definitely the ultimate buzz kill. Even snow forecasts he dared to issue were tempered with dread.
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It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#110
Bryant

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:09 PM

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00Z ECMWF shows an amazing 3 inches of snow at Snoqualmie Pass over the next 10 days.    <_<

 

Perfect!



#111
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:10 PM

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I don't care about skiing, just snow in IMBY....

#112
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:11 PM

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This year has a tiny feel of 2008 going on....
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#113
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:11 PM

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We had two VCR’s in the house so I would tape the two channels and watch the 3rd between 5:18 and 5:27pm and then compare between Renner, Pool, and Wappler.

 

 

I think we all have the same experiences.    I bet we all have a gene mutation that makes us obsessed with weather.   :lol:


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#114
Deweydog

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:12 PM

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This year has a tiny feel of 2008 going on....


Only colder and snowier...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#115
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:12 PM

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I don't care about skiing, just snow in IMBY....

 

 

Mountain snow matters for more than skiing... its just nice that what is good for skiing is also good for the water supply.  


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#116
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:15 PM

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Only colder and snowier...

So colder than minus 2 degrees and more than 34” of snow for me...
That would work okay I guess.

#117
MossMan

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:26 PM

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It’s coming.

Attached Files



#118
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:31 PM

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Mountain snow matters for more than skiing... its just nice that what is good for skiing is also good for the water supply.


We are not in a drought up here, remember Tim.... geeZ

#119
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:35 PM

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We are not in a drought up here, remember Tim.... geeZ


Let's keep it that way!

Don't want any issues next summer.

#120
ChilliwackBCwx

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:40 PM

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We had two VCR’s in the house so I would tape the two channels and watch the 3rd between 5:18 and 5:27pm and then compare between Renner, Pool, and Wappler.

Same here I use to watch those three up here B.C. as our t.v. weather personal were more like comedians than actual certified meteorologists, nowaday's there more serious how times have changed, actually there was one on C.B.C. t.v. Bob Fortune he use to used a chalk board he was more professional. The one on CTV was Norm Grohman he was a comedian back in the 70's Shawnigan lake may remember.


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#121
ChilliwackBCwx

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:55 PM

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Currently down to 28f up here in Chilliwack B.C. after a high of 42f.



#122
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2018 - 11:58 PM

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Same here I use to watch those three up here B.C. as our t.v. weather personal were more like comedians than actual certified meteorologists, nowaday's there more serious how times have changed, actually there was one on C.B.C. t.v. Bob Fortune he use to used a chalk board he was more professional. The one on CTV was Norm Grohman he was a comedian back in the 70's Shawnigan lake may remember.


Canadians are traditionally better at comedy.

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#123
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 December 2018 - 01:57 AM

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Sitting right at 40 with light rain.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#124
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:00 AM

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Going to be a COLD month.


On Baffin Island.
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#125
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:03 AM

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We had two VCR’s in the house so I would tape the two channels and watch the 3rd between 5:18 and 5:27pm and then compare between Renner, Pool, and Wappler.


I did weather reports for the class in 5th grade...
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#126
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:39 AM

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41 here and 43 in Seattle... must still be cloudy. 

 

Although I noticed just now that I can see the snow on the top of Mt Si from the front window even though its still dark so the low clouds must have cleared out.   



#127
Phil

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:41 AM

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Wow it was gnarly up there. Probable worst conditions I've seen up there in few years. Looks like 12 inches new and that's a big storm for that pass.


Dashcam footage? ☃️
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#128
Phil

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:41 AM

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I could be mistaken but I feel like we hear this almost every year about this time. 😉


You’re mistaken.

#129
Phil

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:49 AM

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Looking *deeply* into the pattern progression this month in the extratropics, there are actually striking similarities to December 2012.

It’s not an ideal low frequency analog (much stronger STJ this year w/ east-shifted IPWP), but the nature of the intraseasonal convective tendencies and upstream wavetrain are similar.

In the case of 2012/13, it culminated in a major SSW by New Years and a major climate shift across the Pacific.

#130
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:52 AM

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00Z EPS:

 

5-10 day period...

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-41-1.png

 

eps-t850a-5d-noram-41-1.png

 

10-15 day period...

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

 

eps-t850a-5d-noram-60.png

 

 

 

 

That last frame is the COMPLETE opposite of the usual complaint on this forum that the cold air is "just across the border".   :lol:

 

When is all of Canada warm at the same time?    And this has been a recurring theme recently.    I sense a huge pattern change during the week before Christmas.... just a feeling.  



#131
Phil

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:54 AM

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But yeah, the +WPO is a wave activity flux machine. Even though -WPO is (initially) better for cold in the PNW and the USA overall, it’s also a pattern that shuts down poleward vertical heat/mass fluxes, tightens the vortex, and ultimately leads to a warm pattern across the region.

So if we’re moving into a temporary Aleutian Low/+WPO pattern during early/mid December, we might as well put it to use and have it go nuclear. Kill the vortex and then open the Arctic floodgates after New Years and hope it happens fast enough to beat the unfavorable cycle of intraseasonal forcing after 1/10.

Because 1/10 - 2/5 looks hideous west of the Rockies, barring a bizarre sequence of events that somehow precludes the midwinter cycle of warm pool forcing.

#132
El_Nina

Posted 02 December 2018 - 06:58 AM

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While I was headed west down from the mountain I encountered a heavy cell of snow just west of government camp. It was so heavy the roads were turning white down to silent rock(~2500'). I snapped this pic just up from there:
Attached File  20181202_070157.jpg   88.88KB   1 downloads
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#133
El_Nina

Posted 02 December 2018 - 07:07 AM

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I tried posting that at 11 last night but the picture wouldn't upload. So for anyone wondering when the snow was falling it was about 10.

#134
Phil

Posted 02 December 2018 - 07:08 AM

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00Z EPS:

5-10 day period...

eps-z500a-5d-noram-41-1.png

eps-t850a-5d-noram-41-1.png

10-15 day period...

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

eps-t850a-5d-noram-60.png




That last frame is the COMPLETE opposite of the usual complaint on this forum that the cold air is "just across the border". :lol:

When is all of Canada warm at the same time? And this has been a recurring theme recently. I sense a huge pattern change during the week before Christmas.... just a feeling.


It’s a pattern change, but it’s intraseasonal in nature, arising from the cycle of AAM transport/MJO. We actually have a decent pool of analogs for this type of pattern progression. The period from 12/15 to ~ 12/25 will have the classic Alaska vortex/+EPO and storminess across the west coast.

But starting around New Years, the wavetrain retrogrades/amplifies and cold air returns to the US once again. Exactly where/how it arises is debatable, but it’s coming back. At least for some parts of the continent.

This is, ironically, a more classic “by the books” pattern and is (hopefully) easier to predict. I think is a pretty clear cut case. We’ll see, though..
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#135
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:02 AM

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We had two VCR’s in the house so I would tape the two channels and watch the 3rd between 5:18 and 5:27pm and then compare between Renner, Pool, and Wappler.

 

For me it was Guy Sharp on WXIA channel 11 in Atlanta.  The other news stations sucked.  Of course it was more about thunderstorms and whatnot....with the occasional ice/snow storm to throw in.

 

 

When it came to tracking a major weather event, I was almost as bad as the Rainman was regarding Judge Wapner when it came to catching Guy Sharp's forecast, my mom even started calling me Guy Sharp.....she still brings that up every once in a while...LOL


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#136
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:11 AM

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For me it was Guy Sharp on WXIA channel 11 in Atlanta.  The other news stations sucked.  Of course it was more about thunderstorms and whatnot....with the occasional ice/snow storm to throw in.

 

 

When it came to tracking a major weather event, I was almost as bad as the Rainman was regarding Judge Wapner when it came to catching Guy Sharp's forecast, my mom even started calling me Guy Sharp.....she still brings that up every once in a while...LOL

 

Had to look him up... here is his segment from 6/5/85.    Looks like it was hot in Atlanta and cold and wet up here that day.   

 

Those old radar images make me laugh.    :lol:

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=K0GffNmIkkc


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#137
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Looking *deeply* into the pattern progression this month in the extratropics, there are actually striking similarities to December 2012.

It’s not an ideal low frequency analog (much stronger STJ this year w/ east-shifted IPWP), but the nature of the intraseasonal convective tendencies and upstream wavetrain are similar.

In the case of 2012/13, it culminated in a major SSW by New Years and a major climate shift across the Pacific.

 

Oh that is going to get everyone excited! 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#138
Phil

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Oh that is going to get everyone excited!


Early January was close to being great. The block was just slightly too far east.

This isn’t going to be a year like 2011/12 or 1996/97 with a consolidated northern jet and Arctic air sitting nearby for weeks on end, oozing south with every tiny nudge. Essentially zero chance for a pattern like that. Instead, this year, the highest potential for winter weather will coincide with jet retraction cycles and meridional wave amplification initiating upstream or over Eurasia.

#139
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:37 AM

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Oh that is going to get everyone excited!


I lived on the coast and remember nothing significant out there during that time, I’m assuming you were being sarcastic lol.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#140
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:39 AM

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More rain for SoCal.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_38.png


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#141
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:41 AM

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00Z EPS:

5-10 day period...

eps-z500a-5d-noram-41-1.png

eps-t850a-5d-noram-41-1.png

10-15 day period...

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

eps-t850a-5d-noram-60.png




That last frame is the COMPLETE opposite of the usual complaint on this forum that the cold air is "just across the border". :lol:

When is all of Canada warm at the same time? And this has been a recurring theme recently. I sense a huge pattern change during the week before Christmas.... just a feeling.

I think it’s pretty common for Canada to torch like that during a strong nino. Which I realize this is not one.

#142
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:45 AM

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I think it’s pretty common for Canada to torch like that during a strong nino. Which I realize this is not one.


I thought a typical Nino set up would be warm west and cold east... just strange to see warmth from coast to coast.

#143
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:49 AM

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I think it’s pretty common for Canada to torch like that during a strong nino. Which I realize this is not one.

It may "torch", but still cold enough for snow across much of Canada.  It looks like a zonal pattern to me, which is not bitterly cold, but up there would still be cold enough for snow.  Edmonton not forecast to be above freezing for the next 2 weeks.   Toronto and Montreal in the 30's for the next 14 days.  



#144
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:50 AM

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I lived on the coast and remember nothing significant out there during that time, I’m assuming you were being sarcastic lol.

 

I was though at the time it was the coldest January in 20 years, since beaten by 2017.


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#145
Farmboy

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:51 AM

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I think it’s pretty common for Canada to torch like that during a strong nino. Which I realize this is not one.


The Weather Channel seems to want to have everyone believe it is a strong El Nino.. They're advertising a "much above normal" temperature regime for Washington for December...
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#146
Jesse

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:51 AM

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I thought a typical Nino set up would be warm west and cold east... just strange to see warmth from coast to coast.


Warm northern tier “cold” southern tier.

#147
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:56 AM

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I thought a typical Nino set up would be warm west and cold east... just strange to see warmth from coast to coast.


Attached File  3CB7D543-D34C-4389-A2C4-83D446C7492B.png   15.91KB   0 downloads

#148
TT-SEA

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:56 AM

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It may "torch", but still cold enough for snow across much of Canada. It looks like a zonal pattern to me, which is not bitterly cold, but up there would still be cold enough for snow. Edmonton not forecast to be above freezing for the next 2 weeks. Toronto and Montreal in the 30's for the next 14 days.


That map is for the 10-15 day period... it's not nearly that warm for the first 10 days.

#149
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 December 2018 - 08:57 AM

SilverFallsAndrew

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12z = ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#150
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 December 2018 - 09:00 AM

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12z = ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Splittyyyyyyyyyy