December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking a little like last December. Cool/dry and boring.

[ShawniganLake]

I am far from an ENSO expert... never said otherwise.

 

I guess I was thinking about how they say a Nino favors the Midwest and East for snowstorms. Phil talks about that all the time.

Probably a result of a more active southern branch of the jet stream. Lots of energy available when a trough does dig into the east.

[TT-SEA]

Cloudy and 42 currently.

Clouds breaking up here...

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Had to look him up... here is his segment from 6/5/85.    Looks like it was hot in Atlanta and cold and wet up here that day.   

 

Those old radar images make me laugh.   

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0GffNmIkkc

 

 

That is awesome, blast from the past.  Never thought to look him up on you tube.  Looked like there was a CZ going on up here in one of the national radar images (it was right behind his head in one of the shots).

 

 

Just came across this video of one of the worst storms in my memory...."snowjam '82" 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO8HTpFT4Fo

 

 

It's pretty fun to look at all of the cars from the era....datsuns, VW bugs, a karmann ghia Chevy Chevettes.  My mom got caught in the storm, took her something like 6-8 hours to get home (normally a 45 minute commute).  We were all home alone so she had to get home.  She went to bed when she got home and just cried...She was driving a Chevy Monza if I remember correctly, crappy little 4 cylinder that could barely get out of its own way...

[ShawniganLake]

Snow wizard sure has been quiet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is awesome, blast from the past.  Never thought to look him up on you tube.  Looked like there was a CZ going on up here in one of the national radar images (it was right behind his head in one of the shots).

 

 

Just came across this video of one of the worst storms in my memory...."snowjam '82" 

 

 

 

It's pretty fun to look at all of the cars from the era....datsuns, VW bugs, a karmann ghia Chevy Chevettes.  My mom got caught in the storm, took her something like 6-8 hours to get home (normally a 45 minute commute).  We were all home alone so she had to get home.  She went to bed when she got home and just cried...She was driving a Chevy Monza if I remember correctly, crappy little 4 cylinder that could barely get out of its own way...

I used to have to work on all those early to mid eighties cars. Talk about junk and believe it or not cars today are easier to work on than the stuff from the eighties. Chevy citation was another gem.

[TT-SEA]

Mix of broken clouds and fog with some snow on top of the ridge...

 

[Phil]

Probably a result of a more active southern branch of the jet stream. Lots of energy available when a trough does dig into the east.

Exactly. Temperatures and precip/storm track aren’t necessarily covariant around these parts. This is especially true across the Northern Plains and Midwest.

 

Some of our snowiest winters (such as 2015/16 and 1982/83) are also extremely warm. And some of our coldest winters (like 1976/77 and 1980/81) produce very little snow. In the end, storm track/jet dynamics play a much larger role than temperatures here during the “snowy” months of January and February.

 

Temperatures do matter more during the bookend months like March, November, and the first half of December, so there is some correlation in the averages, but it’s nothing like the PNW where temps and snowfall go hand in hand.

[Front Ranger]

I am far from an ENSO expert... never said otherwise.

 

I guess I was thinking about how they say a Nino favors the Midwest and East for snowstorms.   Phil talks about that all the time.  

 

During major +ENSO, the Midwest usually torches, or at least the upper Midwest. -ENSO tends to have cold across the northern tier more.

 

Snow, of course, is more variable.

[jcmcgaffey]

Mix of broken clouds and fog with some snow on top of the ridge...

 

Down at the Ballard market and still raining pretty good. Even seeing a good amount of umbrellas from the local seattleites.

[Jesse]

I'm surprised to see you say this. Figured it would be common knowledge for you

Playing dumb is part of the shtick.

[bainbridgekid]

This convergence zone that has been more or less parked over the Seattle area for the last 12 hours sure would have been a fun surprise if it had been about 10 degrees colder.

[Jesse]

Long range Euro doesn’t seem too bad.

[TT-SEA]

Playing dumb is part of the shtick.

Stop being a complete d*ck. Although that is probably not possible for you. Being a d*ck is part of your shtick.

 

I did not know that at all about ENSO climo back East... I learned something new.

 

And your response will be something about it being a joke. Classic d*ck move.

[Phil]

Probably a result of a more active southern branch of the jet stream. Lots of energy available when a trough does dig into the east.

And FWIW, it’s also the reason why snowfall can be nearly impossible to predict across so much of the country. Especially without a coherent ENSO state regulating the storm track.

 

Soooo easy to get screwed by the jet here, even in a great longwave pattern w/ plenty of cold. It happens all the f**king time, even when it looks perfect on paper.

 

Then there are cases (like Mar 2013/Feb 2006) where you stumble into a lucky storm track in the middle of a regional blowtorch and end up w/ a foot of wet chowder while it’s 55*F up north in Toronto. Lol.

[Front Ranger]

Long range Euro doesn’t seem too bad.

 

I really like where it's heading at day 10.

[TT-SEA]

I really like where it's heading at day 10.

 

 

And its moving up in time... would be awesome to get that pattern ahead of Christmas skiing.  

[Phil]

I really like where it's heading at day 10.

Are you seeing something I’m not? That’s a blowtorch pattern for all of the PNW and western Canada.

[TT-SEA]

Are you seeing something I’m not? That’s a blowtorch pattern for all of the PNW and western Canada.

 

 

Looks like a deep trough descending down on the PNW from the NW... awesome mountain snow pattern.

[Jesse]

I did not know that at all about ENSO climo back East... I learned something new.

 

 

Oversimplified but this is very general.

 

[Phil]

Looks like a deep trough descending down on the PNW from the NW... awesome mountain snow pattern.

This is a super canonical niño pattern. Retrograding vortex in the GOA. See Jesse’s image above.

 

[TT-SEA]

Oversimplified but this is very general.

 

FE0C2F73-879E-49DF-8F46-60FF68D3F561.png

 

 

Right... that is not blowtorch over eastern Canada.

 

I did not think blowtorch from coast to coast in Canada was typical Nino... I learned something new. 

 

I am playing dumb about eastern Canada Nino climo?     WTF?     Sometimes its just a discussion about weather and there are many people on here smarter than me.   

[ShawniganLake]

Long range Euro doesn’t seem too bad.

The first couple systems split but seem to break down the door for a fairly dynamic looking front at day 10

[Jesse]

Right... that is not blowtorch over eastern Canada.

 

I did not think blowtorch from coast to coast in Canada was typical Nino... I learned something new.

 

That's a pretty warm pattern for most of Canada, although obviously it is missing lots of details. The mean Nino jet stream configuration, with northward displaced zonal or WNW jet over Canada is going to flood much of the country with Pacific air.

[TT-SEA]

That's a pretty warm pattern for most of Canada, although obviously it is missing lots of details. The mean Nino jet stream configuration, with northward displaced zonal or WNW jet over Canada is going to flood much of the country with Pacific air.

 

 

Duly noted... I will never make that mistake again.   This should never happen to the premiere ENSO expert on this forum and the most knowledgeable person on the planet about Montreal weather.    I was just fooling you... gotcha!    

[Phil]

Right... that is not blowtorch over eastern Canada.

 

I did not think blowtorch from coast to coast in Canada was typical Nino... I learned something new.

 

I am playing dumb about eastern Canada Nino climo? WTF? Sometimes its just a discussion about weather and there are many people on here smarter than me.

Again, Niños do often blowtorch eastern Canada. Much more frequently than Niñas do, at least. The coast to coast torch in Canada is very common in the canonical niño wave structure.

 

There’s a lot of variability up there, so it’s a less consistent signal vs western Canada, but it’s much easier for them to blowtorch when there’s a vortex in the GOA, as opposed to a GOA ridge (which shuts down the advection of mild Pacific air).

[Deweydog]

Day 10!

[Jesse]

Duly noted.

 

 

You’re welcome.

[Phil]

This is an ancient classic but still pertinent in reference to the climatological canonical niño/niña wave structure(s).

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.gif

[jcmcgaffey]

This convergence zone that has been more or less parked over the Seattle area for the last 12 hours sure would have been a fun surprise if it had been about 10 degrees colder.

this would be a dream snow scenario as it has been parked over my area the last two days. Here it is currently.

[TT-SEA]

this would be a dream snow scenario as it has been parked over my area the last two days. Here it is currently.

I was just looking at the radar again as game time approaches. Insane. It just never moves. And it's getting stronger now. Incredibly persistent.

[ShawniganLake]

this would be a dream snow scenario as it has been parked over my area the last two days. Here it is currently.

That would also be strait effect snow along the north side of the olympics had there been any cold air in southern BC.

[Phil]

That's a pretty warm pattern for most of Canada, although obviously it is missing lots of details. The mean Nino jet stream configuration, with northward displaced zonal or WNW jet over Canada is going to flood much of the country with Pacific air.

Tbh, this is probably the best match to the classical niño wave structure I can ever recall seeing. At least in recent years. Figures Tim would argue otherwise.

 

D5-10 on the 12z ECMWF. #ObviousIsObvious

 

[TT-SEA]

Tbh, this is probably the best match to the classical niño wave structure I can ever recall seeing. At least in recent years. Figures Tim would argue otherwise.

 

D5-10 on the 12z ECMWF. #ObviousIsObvious

 

All I know of Nino is split flow out here. I could not identify a Nino pattern globally if my life depended on it. Seriously.

 

I was not "arguing" anything... I was just making conversation and learning.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Tbh, this is probably the best match to the classical niño wave structure I can ever recall seeing. At least in recent years. Figures Tim would argue otherwise.

 

D5-10 on the 12z ECMWF. #ObviousIsObvious

 

Canada would be pretty snowy in a lot of places.  Warmer than normal is still cold enough for snow in a lot of Canada.  

[TT-SEA]

Just looked back at my argumentative Nino statement.

 

Here it is...

 

"When is all of Canada warm at the same time?"

 

Bryant basically said I was dumb.. Jesse said I was playing dumb... and Phil said I was arguing foolishly about Nino.

 

I sure live in all of your heads! That was an evil question.

[Andrew.]

Great day for finding a Christmas tree in the hills above North Plains, 37 and foggy.

 

[GHweatherChris]

#triggered

[TT-SEA]

#triggered

Seems like that is the only goal for some people

 

Sort of silly.

[TT-SEA]

12 EPS shows same pattern in 10-15 day range.

 

 

Waiting for oil change... will post maps when I get to computer.