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December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#2751
DJ Droppin

Posted Today, 01:08 AM

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Wow. Dramatic improvement. Thank you



#2752
DJ Droppin

Posted Today, 01:13 AM

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We have a long ways to go, but there is substantial potential ahead and with all 3 model camps agreeing on retrogression of the offshore ridge to develop into an Alaskan Block we can't ask for much more. We may see Operational runs turn much better and colder. Let's see this progression move ahead in timing. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!

 

6z GFS in 11 minutes!


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#2753
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 04:52 AM

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We have a long ways to go, but there is substantial potential ahead and with all 3 model camps agreeing on retrogression of the offshore ridge to develop into an Alaskan Block we can't ask for much more. We may see Operational runs turn much better and colder. Let's see this progression move ahead in timing. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!

 

6z GFS in 11 minutes!

 

Unfortunately it looks like the 00z runs were a mirage. And the prospect of yet another dry month is looking more and more likely.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2754
umadbro

Posted Today, 06:32 AM

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Ended with 1.10" of rain yesterday. Pretty impressive considering there was only .08" when I left for work and the 2nd round didn't start until about 2pm.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#2755
Andrew.

Posted Today, 08:09 AM

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Snowball fight canceled?

#2756
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 08:25 AM

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Next week looks pretty warm across the country on the 12Z GFS:

 

gfs_T850a_namer_31.png


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#2757
iFred

Posted Today, 08:28 AM

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Maybe we'll get some fake cold to go with the fake happiness I show to friends and family when discussing my decision to move back from Philly. At least I can make some frost snowpersons.


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#2758
hawkstwelve

Posted Today, 08:33 AM

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Next week looks pretty warm across the country on the 12Z GFS:

 

At least we aren't the only ones suffering this unbearable winter.



#2759
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 08:34 AM

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Heavy frost here this morning. 29.8F. Roads look icy.

#2760
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 08:39 AM

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20”+ of rain in SW BC with barely more than an inch or so in most of Oregon

Attached File  1F59499E-3E0A-470E-83C4-7949874927D9.png   130.68KB   0 downloads

#2761
hawkstwelve

Posted Today, 08:41 AM

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Much stronger energy in the GOA at hour 228 than previous runs.

 

Our once near-perfect ridge placement has been replaced by a GOA trough. Whoopie!

 

gfs_z500a_npac_39.png



#2762
hawkstwelve

Posted Today, 08:46 AM

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06z FV3 wasn't too bad. The Pacific gets more or less shut down by a gigantic block, or rather pair of blocks, I would assume in large part due to the intense anomaly over Eastern Asia.

 

If only they would meet in the middle...

 

fv3p_z500a_nhem_57.png



#2763
Omegaraptor

Posted Today, 08:49 AM

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20”+ of rain in SW BC with barely more than an inch or so in most of Oregon
attachicon.gif1F59499E-3E0A-470E-83C4-7949874927D9.png


Wow, Eastern Washington County is actually getting more rain than other parts of the valley! Impressive!

Current annual rainfall deficit for Portland, OR is -9.20” as of December 11, 2018


#2764
hawkstwelve

Posted Today, 08:56 AM

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Don't look now... I smell a retrogression.

 

gfs_z500a_npac_45.png


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#2765
Esquimalt

Posted Today, 08:57 AM

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The 12Z GFS ends well.  The 12Z NAM puts the Friday low way south, still something to watch!



#2766
Timmy

Posted Today, 09:04 AM

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A blend of last night’s gefs and this mornings gfs op run would be pretty tasty

#2767
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted Today, 09:06 AM

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The 12z GFS looks encouraging in the long range. Let's go cold and snow! 😨🌨❄☃⛄⛇

500h_anom.na.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_51.png
gfs_T850_nwus_53.png
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#2768
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:07 AM

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Pretty disappointing trends in the semi-realistic range this morning.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2769
Jesse

Posted Today, 09:08 AM

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Pretty disappointing trends in the semi-realistic range this morning.


384 looks good = it’s all good. B)

#2770
Jesse

Posted Today, 09:09 AM

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20”+ of rain in SW BC with barely more than an inch or so in most of Oregon

1F59499E-3E0A-470E-83C4-7949874927D9.png


Hopefully that will trend south.

#2771
Timmy

Posted Today, 09:13 AM

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Pretty disappointing trends in the semi-realistic range this morning.

I wasn’t paying attention because all of yesterday’s runs showed Oregon getting shafted anyways. So i can’t imagine it getting much worse.

#2772
MossMan

Posted Today, 09:13 AM

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PNA is trying really hard to trend down by Christmas time...ish.

Attached Files



#2773
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 09:35 AM

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At least there is some marginal stuff at the end of the runs. But we all know once it gets inside of 8 days at the latest it’s gone.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2774
Timmy

Posted Today, 09:38 AM

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The 12z gefs continues to show a lot of ridging in the goa in the extended.

#2775
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:44 AM

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Definitely a sense of urgency with this thing. We need it to trend in the right direction if we want to avoid a 91-92 or 14-15 type shitfest. Great to have a sense of urgency over something we have no control over. :)


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2776
Jesse

Posted Today, 09:49 AM

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12z ensembles indeed suggest it could be another dry month.

#2777
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 09:50 AM

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Definitely a sense of urgency with this thing. We need it to trend in the right direction if we want to avoid a 91-92 or 14-15 type shitfest. Great to have a sense of urgency over something we have no control over. :)

 

Like sports spectators.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2778
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 09:52 AM

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MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

I've seen worse. But 29 years and counting...has to be the longest the S valley has gone without a white Christmas in a long time.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2779
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:55 AM

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12z ensembles indeed suggest it could be another dry month.

 

Seems like I was about 24 hours ahead of you with this call.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2780
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted Today, 09:56 AM

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Every stratosphere weather weenie (like me) is going to love to see this downward propagation of warmth from the stratosphere towards the troposphere. HERE WE GO!

 

 

DuOmJ5kXQAARV_t.jpg
 



#2781
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:56 AM

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MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

I've seen worse. But 29 years and counting...has to be the longest the S valley has gone without a white Christmas in a long time.

 

If anything these lend support to our growing 91-92 redux fears.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2782
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 09:59 AM

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The 12z gefs continues to show a lot of ridging in the goa in the extended.

 

It's a little better than the 6z, but a big step back from the 0z ensembles.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2783
Deweydog

Posted Today, 10:04 AM

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Thoughts on next summer? Lol!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2784
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 10:04 AM

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The 12Z GFS ends well. The 12Z NAM puts the Friday low way south, still something to watch!

Gonna be a big blow Friday for southern Vancouver Island. Expecting lots of power outages.

#2785
Jesse

Posted Today, 10:05 AM

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Seems like I was about 24 hours ahead of you with this call.


It worked!

#2786
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 10:05 AM

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Thoughts on next summer? Lol!

 

Hot, fires.


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2787
Timmy

Posted Today, 10:10 AM

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Thoughts on next summer? Lol!

dude it’s december 12th, 20 years ago it would have been December 12th too. #Lifegoeson

#2788
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:12 AM

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Hot, fires.

 

Yeah, maybe we'll have a wet spring, that can occur sometimes coming out of an El Nino, so if anything perhaps that could be our saving grace. 

 

Once nice thing is that if we can avoid a back to back Nino we should be set up pretty nicely. Some of our best winters have followed some of our all-time duds. 92-93 was an epic winter in the valley, 03-04 was pretty good, 16-17 followed back to back +ENSO duds. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2789
Timmy

Posted Today, 10:15 AM

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Hot, fires.

there won’t be much fuel to burn if things stay dry.

#2790
Omegaraptor

Posted Today, 10:23 AM

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Back in 2017-18 I wasn’t on this forum, but I thought throughout the winter and spring that the summer of 2018 would be record hot with wildfire smoke.

Surprise surprise, I was right.

There were either 9 or 10 days of 90+ in a row, I can’t remember. I know it ended with an 89° day on 7/31.

Attached Files


Current annual rainfall deficit for Portland, OR is -9.20” as of December 11, 2018


#2791
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 10:27 AM

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Back in 2017-18 I wasn’t on this forum, but I thought throughout the winter and spring that the summer of 2018 would be record hot with wildfire smoke.

Surprise surprise, I was right.

 

I like your Tim defeating signature. ;)


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2792
Jesse

Posted Today, 10:28 AM

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Back in 2017-18 I wasn’t on this forum, but I thought throughout the winter and spring that the summer of 2018 would be record hot with wildfire smoke.

Surprise surprise, I was right.


#heavenonearth :)