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Precipitation Anomalies Discussion


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Jared and Justin...

The other station very close to me is Cedar Lake. I am about half way between the Snoqualmie Falls Station (440 feet) and Cedar Lake (1,560 feet) in both distance and elevation. I don't normally use Cedar Lake because that station gets more precip and snow than my area because its a little higher.

Cedar Lake was renamed to Chester Morse Lake. I am right in the middle of those two stations.

maps.png



Snoqualmie Falls annual average - 59.14
Cedar Lake annual average - 101.13

So being in the middle in terms of elevation and distance... I assume my area gets roughly 80-85 inches annually. Palmer matches my elevation so it might be a good guide for snow... but its on the other side of a mountain.

Look at the Cedar Falls data for 2018... with no missing data.

Untitled.png


It can't get any more normal than that.

Total for September - November
Actual - 28.83
Normal - 28.78

It was .05 above normal this fall. :)

 

And December is tracking towards normal as well.


Andrew - the Cedar Lake station is at the same elevation as Silver Falls. How does it compare?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The two WRCC stations (with long-term averages) on either side of me were almost perfectly normal for the Sept - Nov period:

 

Snoqualmie Falls  (0.43)

Cedar Lake +0.05

 

The number of days with rain this fall at both stations has also been perfectly normal.  

 

The nice thing about Cedar Lake (Chester Morse) is that the lake is the water supply for the entire Seattle area so they monitor it closely and there are no almost no missing days in the data set.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was not talking about the entire region or SEA or anything else last night. Just what has happened in my area as it relates to the notion that I control the weather. :lol:

 

I presented factual data using WRCC sites closest to me in the same orographic area (Snoqualmie Falls and Cedar Lake)... I could easily walk to both stations and both areas are in my view from my front window.

 

Sometimes I talk about the Seattle area... sometimes the entire region. Sometimes it dry elsewhere and wet here. Sometimes SEA approximates what is happening out here... sometimes it does not.

 

But the best approximation for my specific area is to take the average between Snoqualmie Falls and Cedar Lake. Is Jared really arguing that it has not been almost perfectly normal in my area this fall? Because it has been... and there is no way to dispute that just because I have talked about SEA or the entire region in previous discussions.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jared and Justin...

 

The other station very close to me is Cedar Lake. I am about half way between the Snoqualmie Falls Station (440 feet) and Cedar Lake (1,560 feet) in both distance and elevation. I don't normally use Cedar Lake because that station gets more precip and snow than my area because its a little higher.

 

Cedar Lake was renamed to Chester Morse Lake. I am right in the middle of those two stations.

 

maps.png

 

 

 

Snoqualmie Falls annual average - 59.14

Cedar Lake annual average - 101.13

 

So being in the middle in terms of elevation and distance... I assume my area gets roughly 80-85 inches annually. Palmer matches my elevation so it might be a good guide for snow... but its on the other side of a mountain.

 

Look at the Cedar Falls data for 2018... with no missing data.

 

 

It can't get any more normal than that.

 

Total for September - November

Actual - 28.83

Normal - 28.78

 

It was .05 above normal this fall. :)

 

And December is tracking towards normal as well.

 

 

Andrew - the Cedar Lake station is at the same elevation as Silver Falls. How does it compare?

 

Palmer averages 89" of rain a year.

 

Looks like Snoqualmie Falls is also running a deficit on the water year to date...just as the WRCC maps would indicate for that area. Oct - present was the original period in question and the map I presented, that's why I'm sticking with that.

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Palmer averages 89" of rain a year.

 

Looks like Snoqualmie Falls is also running a deficit on the water year to date...just as the WRCC maps would indicate for that area. Oct - present was the original period in question and the map I presented, that's why I'm sticking with that.

 

Palmer might be at the same elevation as me... but its on the other side of a mountain and has very different precip patterns.   That area gets more rain with SW flow and less precip with the c-zone.    So it might average out to be similar over the long term... but stations around the Snoqualmie Valley approximate my area much better in terms of what has happened during a particular month or season or even year.  

 

This year has featured more NW flow rain than usual and it definitely rains more on THIS side of Rattlesnake Ridge with that set up.   So this year has been wetter in terms of anomalies in this area.     Its very easy to understand the differences when you drive around this area and look at the geography.   I could literally walk to Cedar Lake.  We have done it several times.   Its just a little higher than here but its the same geographical area surrounding the Snoqualmie Valley.

 

You can stick with whatever you want.   

 

But my statement is that its been almost perfectly normal this fall into early winter in my area... and that is a fact that you cannot dispute.   The data backs it up.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The Tolt South Fork Reservoir station is also in the Snoqualmie Valley on this side of Rattlesnake Ridge and is at 1,880 feet in elevation.

 

It has been ABOVE normal this fall and this year... indicative of the wet NW flow pattern that has dominated 2018.

 

tsf.png

 

 

 

Even missing 4 days in September... that station was +2.48 inches for the fall season.

 

Normal - 27.28

Actual - 29.76

 

The data backs me up, Jared.   It has been very close to normal this fall in my area.    

 

I can't change the precipitation patterns.     Any place that is wet with NW flow has been normal or wetter than normal this year.   Its just a simple fact.

 

Palmer is shadowed more in that set up... so is SEA.     My location is very wet with NW flow.    We are in a prime upslope area in that pattern.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You can stick with whatever you want.   

 

The original goal posts. You claimed, based on those goal posts, that the WRCC maps must be skewed dry. The evidence does not support that.

 

Now you're trying to compare to a station with nearly twice as much elevation as you...

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The original goal posts. You claimed, based on those goal posts, that the WRCC maps must be skewed dry. The evidence does not support that.

 

Now you're trying to compare to a station with nearly twice as much elevation as you...

 

OMG.   You must be trolling me.

 

I am talking about ANOMALIES Jared.     Snoqualmie Falls has been just slightly drier than normal this fall and Cedar Lake and Tolt Reservoir have been at or above normal.

 

I also explained the reason for those anomalies.   I have experienced firsthand all year.   I know what has been happening.   Places that are favored with NW flow have been at or above normal.   I live in a place that is really wet with NW flow.    

 

The WRCC maps must be skewed dry because I just showed you two stations in my area that are running at or above normal this fall.  

 

How can you dispute this??     It has been almost perfectly normal in my area this fall... in terms of total precip and number days with rain based on actual data from specific WRCC stations in my area.   Just agree with that statement.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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OMG.   You must be trolling me.

 

I am talking about ANOMALIES Jared.     Snoqualmie Falls has been just slightly drier than normal this fall and Cedar Lake and Tolt Reservoir have been at or above normal.

 

I also explained the reason for those anomalies.   I have experienced firsthand all year.   I know what has been happening.   Places that are favored with NW flow have been at or above normal.   I live in a place that is really wet with NW flow.    

 

The WRCC maps must be skewed dry because I just showed you two stations in my area that are running at or above normal this fall.  

 

How can you dispute this??     It has been almost perfectly normal in my area this fall... in terms of total precip and number days with rain based on actual data from specific WRCC stations in my area.   Just agree with that statement.   

 

No, because the map was water YTD. Oct 1 - present. Snoqualmie Falls is running a deficit for that period, just as Palmer is.

 

As I've said, the vast majority of stations support what those maps show most of the time.

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I can keep going out here north of Rattlesnake Ridge in the areas favored with NW flow.

 

Two more stations just north of the Snoqualmie Valley:

 

Startup was +1.47 for the Sept - Nov period and is on track for a normal year.

 

Monroe was +2.87 for the Sept - Nov. period and is already above normal for the year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can keep going out here north of Rattlesnake Ridge in the areas favored with NW flow.

 

Two more stations just north of the Snoqualmie Valley:

 

Startup was +1.47 for the Sept - Nov period and is on track for a normal year.

 

Monroe was +2.87 for the Sept - Nov. period and is already above normal for the year.

 

Different goal posts. Not the same period as the map you disputed.

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I have highligted the WRCC stations out here in red... and my area in blue.

 

All of those stations have been close to or above normal this fall.    That is just a fact.    These areas are all favored in NW flow and that is why these stations have been basically normal this fall.

 

maps.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Different goal posts. Not the same period as the map you disputed.

 

Got it.    I believe the WRCC maps do skew a little drier than reality in general... for reasons I have stated before.    

 

It would be nice to see a WRCC map for this fall season.     Because if it showed the area above as being dry then its NOT matching the actual data from the WRCC stations in that area.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Understanding the topography here helps you to understand what areas have been able to get to normal or above normal while other areas are drier than normal.

 

The Issaquah Alps and Rattlesnake Ridge form a barrier.    With dominant NW flow... the area to the north is heavily favored.    With SW flow... the area to the south is actually favored.  

 

So when we have a year with lots of SW flow then places like Palmer and SEA (and even down to Olympia and Portland for different reasons) are often wetter in terms of anomalies... and with the NW flow its the opposite.

 

I live in an area that cradles NW flow... so the blue area has done very well this year.   And the WRCC station data in that area proves it.  All the way up to the Skykomish Valley in places like Monroe and Startup.  

 

maps2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got it.    I believe the WRCC maps do skew a little drier than reality in general... for reasons I have stated before.    

 

It would be nice to see a WRCC map for this fall season.     Because if it showed the area above as being dry then its NOT matching the actual data from the WRCC stations in that area.    

 

This is the closest.

 

90dPNormWA.png

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This is the closest.

 

attachicon.gif90dPNormWA.png

Can't be sure because early September is missing and the dry period in early December is included.

 

But it sure looks too dry for the area that I showed above. Every WRCC station in that area has been close to or above normal this fall.

 

It gets the general pattern correct... the wet area is shown to be less dry than other areas. But it skews too dry in general. I am sure I could actually prove this for more than just the Cascade foothills if I had the time.

 

You have to compare full months because I only have monthly precip at the WRCC stations.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Can't be sure because early September is missing and the dry period in early December is included.

 

But it sure looks too dry for the area that I showed above. Every WRCC station in that area has been close to or above normal this fall.

 

It gets the general pattern correct... the wet area is shown to be less dry than other areas. But it skews too dry in general. I am sure I could actually prove this for more than just the Cascade foothills if I had the time.

 

You have to compare full months because I only have monthly precip at the WRCC stations.

 

You were including December originally!  :lol:

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You were including December originally!  :lol:

 

Because I know what has happened in December so far because I am watching it happen right now.

 

But if we were to start a project to prove the validity of the WRCC maps then we would have to look at full months only.  

 

I know its been close to normal in every regard in my area this fall and for the year.   The WRCC stations in the upslope areas favored by NW flow in my map above prove this out without any doubt.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim’s clearly in the wrong here. But he’s just a little scamp and we expect it of him anyway, so let’s let it slide. The people debating him are actually the fools!

 

How am I wrong?   Other than the fact that you dislike me?   What specifically am I stating that is false?   Tell me.  

 

You come on here and ignore factual data and then mock me.    Why?

 

All of the active WRCC stations that cradle NW flow like my area have been wetter than normal this fall and around normal this year.

 

Cedar Lake

Tolt Reservoir

Monroe

Startup

 

Everywhere south of the Issaquah Alps and Rattlesnake Ridge has been the opposite.

 

I find it interesting.    I love this kind of analysis.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How am I wrong? Other than the fact that you dislike me? What specifically am I stating that is false? Tell me.

 

You come on here and ignore factual data and then mock me. Why?

 

All of the active WRCC stations that cradle NW flow like my area have been wetter than normal this fall and around normal this year.

 

Cedar Lake

Tolt Reservoir

Monroe

Startup

 

Everywhere south of the Issaquah Alps and Rattlesnake Ridge has been the opposite.

 

I find it interesting. I love this kind of analysis.

Not even going to get into this. I was just trying to channel Matt’s opinion.

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Not even going to get into this. I was just trying to channel Matt’s opinion.

 

In other words... despite backing up my statements with actual data from actual active WRCC stations you choose to mock me rather than learn something and say its interesting.     Or just say nothing at all.  

 

The topography map explains the precipitation patterns perfectly this year.    You know that is true but never can admit I am right.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If it was a clear day in August in this completely normal/cripplingly wet year you probably would be. :lol:

I never said it was crippling wet. You are just mocking me again. I have said many times that it has been very close to normal in my area.

 

The Cedar Lake station about 2 miles from me and a little higher shows this to be true.   

 

 

 

Untitled.png

 

 

My area is heavily favored for precip with NW flow.    The topography dictates that fact.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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