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12/26 - 12-28 Winter Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 December 2018 - 03:46 AM

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Alright folks, the post Christmas storm looks like it will indeed develop somewhere across the Plains and then eventually track up towards the GL's region. Who will score in the snow dept? Winter T-Storms and severe wx down south?? Mixed bag?? This storm will have it all. Models are showing a wide variety of storm tracks which will keep things interesting for some on here over the next few days.

There has been a trend on some models for this system to max out in intensity out in the Plains and then slowly weaken and occlude across the MW/GL's which has happened in some storm systems this season. We don't have to go back to far and one of the storms that sticks out was the powerful Nov 29th - Dec 2nd storm. Another piece to the puzzle I'm noticing is the increasing blocking across S Canada which is slowing this system down somewhat.

Let's dive into the various models and see what is being suggested....first off, the GEFS have been pretty steady on taking a more southern solution and digging this energy into OK and then tracking through IL/MI. last night, the 00z GEPS trended this way as well while the EPS is holding steady with the farthest N solution. Hang on to your hats, it's going to be a fun system to track.
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#2
Tom

Posted 22 December 2018 - 04:07 AM

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Last night's 00z EPS showing a pretty wide band of 6"+ across NE/SD/MN and the 2" mean did shift a bit farther south this run.  I must say, the way the models are handling this system reminds me of the early Dec storm we saw earlier in the month.

 

00z GEFS are shown below and holding steady...


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#3
Tom

Posted 22 December 2018 - 04:11 AM

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00z Ukie showing a strong HP across S Manitoba/Saskatchewan and it looks like it starts occluding early on with copious precip in NE/SD/S MN.  Hard to tell if its all snow or a mix variety in NE.



#4
Stormhunter87

Posted 22 December 2018 - 05:33 AM

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Fv3 is showing some interesting banding plus I think thermals are going to play a role. Maybe not at the beginning but definitely a little later in the storm.

#5
Tom

Posted 22 December 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Fv3 is showing some interesting banding plus I think thermals are going to play a role. Maybe not at the beginning but definitely a little later in the storm.

These are the kind of details that will be ironed out 24-36 hours prior to the storms arrival and I'm pretty sure this is going to be another nail biter around your area.  Timing of the occlusion is going to be a key component to look for, esp up north near MSP area.  


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#6
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 06:28 AM

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NWS Hastings saying they believe the area with greatest chance of snow, possibly heavy, is anyplace west of a line from Norfolk to Grand Island to Phillipsburg KS.
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#7
Stormhunter87

Posted 22 December 2018 - 06:37 AM

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Nam going white Christmas here. Going to miss that :(

#8
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 06:58 AM

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12z NAM going with a pretty robust wave on Christmas Day before the main storm. A few inches for parts of NE, MN, IA, WI and N IL.
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#9
Stormhunter87

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:09 AM

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3k saying to warm interesting.

#10
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:33 AM

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Icon completely different from GFS. Way far southeast.

#11
Tom

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:43 AM

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Icon completely different from GFS. Way far southeast.


Indeed, I think the Euro may be under playing how much the energy digs in the 4 corners. The NE PAC Ridge really fires up during this period of time and this usually suppress’s storm systems coming out of the SW.
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#12
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:43 AM

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Icon is a dream run. Looks like a 2 part system with the 2nd part being the main show.
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#13
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:52 AM

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If Icon verified, parts of Nebraska that could get 20” plus in GFS or Euro would get 0. I would be on the Western edge and basically missed of moisture, rain or snow. No thanks.

#14
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:54 AM

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Gfs coming in a little different...

#15
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:56 AM

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GFS has precipitation from the Rio Grande to northwest South Dakota. Mercy.

#16
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:57 AM

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Each of the last three runs on gfs it’s been digging father and farther south
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#17
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:58 AM

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Seems to be slowing down some.

#18
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:02 AM

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GFS at 114 has my area potentially being hit by thunderstorms, and many types of precipitation over a very short distance. I would take this run any day for the moisture. Snow would be a bonus imo.

#19
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:05 AM

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GFS hour 126 low over Salina KS.

#20
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:05 AM

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Gets down to 990 this run at 126

#21
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:07 AM

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It definitely digs more but ends up in the same location at 132. Bonus.

#22
East Dubzz

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Lookin like a nice little post-Christmas rainstorm. Let this thrilling season continue!
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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 12.80"

June rainfall total: 3.49"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#23
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:10 AM

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12z GFS was a fun run. A lot of wind and my location is close to 12”. This storm I’m sure has more surprises in store.

#24
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:17 AM

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Looks like the GEM reverts back to its previous solutions. Way north from 0z run.

#25
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:27 AM

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GEM shares more snow with more of the forum, just not the insane amounts.

#26
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:33 AM

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One things for certain, this storm is gonna have a lot of moisture with it! Someone is gonna get buried by this storm.

Attached Files


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#27
Bryan1117

Posted 22 December 2018 - 09:09 AM

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Lookin like a nice little post-Christmas rainstorm. Let this thrilling season continue!

Yeah after a very promising start, December for the most part has been a dud. And I can't even complain, with the surprise snowstorm that hit Eastern Nebraska to start the month - while most everyone else got the shaft. 

 

This system looks to be the icing on the cake with a large rainstorm for most of us to end the month of December, bleh! I would take some thunderstorms to end off 2018 though, if we aren't able to get much snow around here. 


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#28
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 09:16 AM

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FV3 low at hour 108 in northwest Oklahoma. Copious moisture transporting northward.

#29
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 09:20 AM

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12z FV3.Attached File  7422EAB0-0E74-4225-B62A-19FA3FA2CD3D.png   184.29KB   1 downloads

#30
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:14 AM

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Euro digging it farther south than previous runs

#31
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:16 AM

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Euro at hour 96 low in Mexico southwest of El Paso, hour 120 Northwest Oklahoma
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#32
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:27 AM

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Euro almost unchanged or maybe a tick NW at hr 144 compared to 12z yesterday.

#33
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Euro almost unchanged or maybe a tick NW at hr 144 compared to 12z yesterday.


Good luck!

#34
Stormhunter87

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Good burst of snow on Christmas and the nam has the low in southern AZ and NM border.

#35
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Euro says frigid air to pour down the Plains when the storm departs next weekend

#36
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Euro has moved the 12” snow line farther east by about 50-75 miles from what I can guess on weather.us from the 0z run. My county would vary from 8-16” with 20” amounts moved east over parts of Central Nebraska. Interesting.
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#37
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 11:29 AM

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The 12z GFS op run has snowfall totals higher than every member of the GEFS ensembles here. Something to keep an eye on going forward. Op run might be too juiced....maybe?

#38
Tom

Posted 22 December 2018 - 11:48 AM

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Taking a look through the 12z EPS members, its scary similar at this distance to how the Nov 29th - Dec 2nd storm evolved.  Almost an identical track through the KC region and into IA/WI.  Take a gander at this snowfall mean...that is about as juiced up as you see this model 5-7 days out.  

 

C/N NE into Minny special???

 

 


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#39
gosaints

Posted 22 December 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Headed to the northwoods of wi next week. Could be a good spot

#40
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 12:13 PM

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Good luck!


Still way too much time. Fun to track though.
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#41
Stormgeek

Posted 22 December 2018 - 12:15 PM

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Taking a look through the 12z EPS members, its scary similar at this distance to how the Nov 29th - Dec 2nd storm evolved. Almost an identical track through the KC region and into IA/WI. Take a gander at this snowfall mean...that is about as juiced up as you see this model 5-7 days out.

C/N NE into Minny special???

Wow, is that a mean of near 12? What the heck. Obviously means close to nothing at this range, but nice to at least see something like that after this recent pattern!
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#42
james1976

Posted 22 December 2018 - 12:19 PM

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Man that 6" mean line isn't far from me.

#43
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 22 December 2018 - 02:05 PM

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Well that run of the GFS wasn't any better lol. Thought we were getting somewhere and its a tad more north.


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#44
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 02:09 PM

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NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.

#45
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 22 December 2018 - 02:15 PM

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NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.

I looked and it has 30-40 MPH winds in western NE.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#46
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 02:19 PM

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I looked and it has 30-40 MPH winds in western NE.


I didn’t think I was losing it. I think they must have some new mets or something as I have seen very short discos, not much in depth weather, and no real basis behind some of their forecasting lately. Thanks for your help Craig.

#47
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2018 - 02:43 PM

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NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.


With the low tracking so close to our area the winds tend to be not as bad closer to the area of low pressure. Gonna all come down to the track of the low.
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#48
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:05 PM

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0z NAM with the low in western New Mexico at 84 hours.

#49
Stormhunter87

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:16 PM

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Looks like the nam has a bit more cold air running with it as well

#50
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:21 PM

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Icon with the low in Mexico again.